Executive Summary

U.S. livestock and meat trade figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Jan ’22. Highlights from the updated report include:

• U.S. pork export volumes remained below previous year levels for the seventh consecutive month throughout Jan ’22 while pork import volumes remained at a record high seasonal level for the sixth consecutive month. Jan ’22 net pork trade declined to a three year low level, overall, finishing 23.5% below previous year levels.
• U.S. beef & veal export volumes increased 16.9% on a YOY basis throughout Jan ’22, remaining at a record high seasonal level, however net beef & veal trade finished at a six year low seasonal level.
• U.S. net broiler trade declined to a four year low seasonal level throughout Jan ’22, finishing 10.8% below previous year levels. The YOY decline in net broiler trade was the largest experienced throughout the past four years.

Additional Report Details

Pork – Net Trade Declines to a Three Year Low Level, Down 23.5% YOY

According to the USDA, U.S. pork export volumes declined 15.8% on a YOY basis throughout Jan ’22, remaining at a three year low seasonal level for the third consecutive month. The YOY decline in pork export volumes was the seventh experienced in a row. Pork export volumes had reached record high seasonal levels over four consecutive months through Jun ’21, prior to declining on a YOY basis throughout the seven most recent months of available data.

YOY declines in pork export volumes continue to be led by volumes destined to China, Hong Kong & Taiwan, while pork export volumes destined to Mexico remained most significantly higher on a YOY basis throughout the month. A 69.9% YOY decline in pork export volumes destined to China, Hong Kong & Taiwan more than offset a 1.5% YOY increase in volumes destined to all other countries throughout Jan ’22.

Mexico and Japan have historically been the largest importers of U.S. pork products, accounting for over 45% of the total U.S. pork export volumes throughout the past five years. Combined U.S. pork export volumes destined to Mexico and Japan have increased by 21.1% on a YOY basis throughout the past 12 months. Throughout the past 12 months, YOY increases in U.S. pork exports have been led by product destined to Mexico, while shipments destined to China, Hong Kong & Taiwan have declined most significantly on a YOY basis over the period.

U.S. pork import volumes remained at a record high seasonal level for the sixth consecutive month throughout Jan ’22, finishing 34.0% above previous year figures. The YOY increase in pork import volumes was the 15^th experienced throughout the past 16 months. The increase in pork import volumes, coupled with the decline in export volumes, resulted in Jan ’22 U.S. net pork trade finishing 23.5% below previous year levels, reaching a three year low level, overall. The YOY decline in net pork trade was the seventh experienced in a row and the second largest experienced throughout the past seven years, trailing only the previous month’s decline.

’20-’21 annual net pork trade declined 2.9% YOY, finishing below previous year levels for the first time in the past six years. ’21-’22 YTD net pork trade has declined by an additional 20.7% on a YOY basis throughout the first third of the production season and is on pace to reach a three year low level.

Beef & Veal – Net Trade Remains at a Six Year Low Seasonal Level, Despite Record Seasonal Exports

Jan ’22 U.S. beef & veal export volumes remained at a record high seasonal level for the 14^th time in the past 15 months, finishing 16.9% above previous year levels. The YOY increase in beef & veal export volumes was the 16^th experienced in a row and the largest experienced throughout the past four months on a percentage basis.

YOY increases in beef & veal export volumes continue to be led by shipments destined to China, Hong Kong & Taiwan, followed by shipments destined to South Korea, while export volumes destined to Mexico finished most significantly lower on a YOY basis throughout the month.

Japan, South Korea, China, Hong Kong & Taiwan, Mexico and Canada have historically been the largest importers of U.S. beef & veal products, combining to account for nearly 90% of the total U.S. beef & veal export volumes throughout the past five years. Throughout the past 12 months, U.S. beef & veal export volumes destined to China, Hong Kong & Taiwan have increased most significantly on a YOY basis, while shipments destined to Canada and Vietnam have declined most significantly on a YOY basis over the period.

Jan ’22 U.S. beef & veal import volumes finished above previous year levels for the fourth consecutive month, increasing by 56.8% and reaching a record high seasonal level. Beef & veal import volumes exceeded export volumes for the first time in the past three months throughout Jan ’22, resulting in U.S. beef & veal net trade finishing at a negative level and remaining at a six year low seasonal level.

’20-’21 annual beef & veal net trade reached an eight year high annual level, rebounding from the negative level experienced throughout the previous production season. ’21-’22 YTD net beef & veal trade is on pace to reach a six year low level, however, based on the first third of available data.

Broilers – Net Trade Declines to a Four Year Low Seasonal Level, Down 10.8% YOY

U.S. broiler export volumes declined 10.1% on a YOY basis throughout Jan ’22, reaching a four year low seasonal level. The YOY decline in broiler export volumes was the fourth experienced throughout the past five months and the largest experienced throughout the past four years on a percentage basis.

YOY declines in U.S. broiler export volumes were led by shipments destined to Vietnam, followed by volumes destined to Mexico and Angola, while volumes destined to China, Hong Kong & Taiwan increased most significantly on a YOY basis throughout the month.

Mexico has historically been the largest importer of U.S. broilers, accounting for over one fifth of the total U.S. broiler export volumes throughout the past five years. Throughout the past 12 months, U.S. broiler export volumes destined to Cuba have increased most significantly on a YOY basis, followed by volumes destined to Mexico, while shipments destined to China, Hong Kong & Taiwan have declined most significantly on a YOY basis over the period.

U.S. broiler import volumes finished above previous year levels for the fourth consecutive month during Jan ’22, increasing by 30.9% and reaching a record high seasonal level. Broiler import volumes remained at insignificant levels relative to export volumes, however, as Jan ’22 imports amounted to just 2.5% of export volumes. The YOY decline in broiler export volumes, coupled with the increase in import volumes, resulted in Jan ’22 U.S. broiler net trade finishing 10.8% below previous year levels, reaching a four year low seasonal level. The YOY decline in broiler net trade was the fourth experienced throughout the past five months and the largest experienced throughout the past four years on a percentage basis.

’20-’21 annual net broiler trade finished 4.5% above previous year figures, reaching a record high annual level. ’21-’22 YTD net broiler trade has declined 5.6% on a YOY basis throughout the first third of the production season, however, and is on pace to reach a four year low level.

Combined Net Trade

Overall, combined net trade of U.S. pork, beef and broilers remained below previous year levels for the fifth consecutive month during Jan ’22, finishing down 266.5 million pounds, or 23.8%, and reaching a six year low seasonal level. The YOY decline in combined net trade of U.S. pork, beef and broilers was the largest experienced throughout the past six and a half years on an absolute basis.