Executive Summary

U.S. cold storage figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Jan ’22. Highlights from the updated report include:

• U.S. pork stocks finished 6.3% below previous year levels throughout Jan ’22, reaching a 25 year low seasonal level. The YOY decline in pork stocks was the 21^st experienced throughout the past 22 months.
• U.S. beef stocks finished 1.4% above previous year levels throughout Jan ’22, reaching a five year high seasonal level. The YOY increase in beef stocks was the first experienced throughout the past 11 months.
• U.S. chicken stocks remained at a seven year low seasonal level throughout Jan ’22, finishing 6.5% below previous year levels. The YOY decline in chicken stocks was the 18^th experienced in a row.

Additional Report Details

Pork – Stocks Reach a 25 Year Low Seasonal Level, Finish 6.3% Lower YOY

According to the USDA, Jan ’22 U.S. frozen pork stocks increased seasonally from the 11 year low level experienced throughout the previous month but remained 6.3% below previous year levels, reaching a 25 year low seasonal level for the month of January. The YOY decline in pork stocks was the 21^st experienced throughout the past 22 months. The month-over-month increase in pork stocks of 32.0 million pound, or 8.1%, was smaller than the ten year average December – January seasonal build in stocks of 67.5 million pounds, or 13.3%. The seasonal build in pork stocks was the smallest experienced throughout the past 12 years on an absolute basis.

Beef – Stocks Reach a Five Year High Seasonal Level, Finish 1.4% Higher YOY

Jan ’22 U.S. frozen beef stocks increased seasonally to a 13 month high level, finishing 1.4% above previous year levels and reaching a five year high seasonal level for the month of January. The YOY increase in beef stocks was the first experienced throughout the past 11 months. The month-over-month increase in beef stocks of 19.3 million pounds, or 3.8%, was larger than the ten year average December – January seasonal build in stocks of 10.5 million pounds, or 2.4%.

Chicken – Stocks Remain at a Seven Year Low Seasonal Level, Finished 6.5% Lower YOY

Jan ’22 U.S. frozen chicken stocks increased contraseasonally to an 11 month high level but remained 6.5% below previous year levels, reaching a seven year low seasonal level for the month of January. The YOY decline in chicken stocks was the 18^th experienced in a row. Chicken stocks had finished higher on a YOY basis over ten consecutive months through Jul ’20, prior to finishing lower over each of the past 18 months of available data. The month-over-month increase in chicken stocks of 21.0 million pounds, or 2.8%, was a contraseasonal move when compared to the ten year average December – January seasonal decline in stocks of 19.4 million pounds, or 2.3%. The seasonal build in chicken stocks was the largest experienced throughout the past 14 years on an absolute basis.

Overall, Jan ’22 combined U.S. pork, beef and chicken stocks finished 17% below the monthly record high level experienced throughout Jan ’20. Individually, Jan ’22 beef and chicken stocks finished seven percent and 22% below their respective record high historical storage levels, while pork stocks finished 39% below the maximum historical storage level.

Jan ’22 combined U.S. pork, beef and chicken stocks remained at a ten year low seasonal level for the second consecutive month. Individually, Jan ’22 beef stocks finished just two percent below the record high seasonal storage level however chicken and pork stocks finished 20% and 31% below their respective record high seasonal storage levels.

Jan ’22 combined U.S. pork, beef and chicken stocks rebounded seasonally to an 11 month high level but remained 4.2% below previous year levels. The Jan ’22 YOY decline in combined U.S. pork, beef and chicken stocks was the 21^st experienced in a row.