Executive Summary

U.S. livestock and meat trade figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Dec ’21. Highlights from the updated report include:

• U.S. pork export volumes remained below previous year levels for the sixth consecutive month throughout Dec ’21 while pork import volumes remained at a record high seasonal level for the fifth consecutive month. Dec ’21 net pork trade declined to a five year low seasonal level, finishing 25.7% below previous year levels.
• U.S. beef & veal export volumes increased 1.0% on a YOY basis throughout Dec ’21, remaining at a record high seasonal level, however net beef & veal trade finished at a six year low seasonal level.
• U.S. net broiler trade finished above previous year levels for the first time in the past four months, increasing by 0.7% and reaching an 11 year high seasonal level.

Additional Report Details

Pork – Net Trade Declines to a Five Year Low Seasonal Level, Down 25.7% YOY

According to the USDA, U.S. pork export volumes declined 16.5% on a YOY basis throughout Dec ’21, remaining at a three year low seasonal level. The YOY decline in pork export volumes was the sixth experienced in a row and the largest experienced throughout the past six and a half years on a percentage basis. Pork export volumes had reached record high seasonal levels over four consecutive months through Jun ’21, prior to declining on a YOY basis throughout the six most recent months of available data.

YOY declines in pork export volumes were led by volumes destined to China, Hong Kong & Taiwan, while pork export volumes destined to Mexico remained most significantly higher on a YOY basis throughout the month. A 73.5% YOY decline in pork export volumes destined to China, Hong Kong & Taiwan more than offset a 2.6% YOY increase in volumes destined to all other countries throughout Dec ’21.

Mexico and Japan have historically been the largest importers of U.S. pork products, accounting for over 45% of the total U.S. pork export volumes throughout the past five years. Combined U.S. pork export volumes destined to Mexico and Japan have increased by 19.0% on a YOY basis throughout the past 12 months. Throughout the past 12 months, YOY increases in U.S. pork exports have been led by product destined to Mexico, while shipments destined to China, Hong Kong & Taiwan have declined most significantly on a YOY basis over the period. U.S. pork exports destined to China, Hong Kong & Taiwan remain elevated when compared to historical figures, however.

U.S. pork import volumes remained at a record high seasonal level for the fifth consecutive month throughout Dec ’21, finishing 50.1% above previous year figures. The YOY increase in pork import volumes was the 14^th experienced throughout the past 15 months. The increase in pork import volumes, coupled with the decline in export volumes, resulted in Dec ’21 U.S. net pork trade finishing 25.7% below previous year levels, reaching a five year low seasonal level. The YOY decline in net pork trade was the sixth experienced in a row and the largest experienced throughout the past six and a half years on a percentage basis.

’20-’21 annual net pork trade declined 2.9% YOY, finishing below previous year levels for the first time in the past six years. ’21-’22 YTD net pork trade has declined by an additional 19.8% on a YOY basis throughout the first quarter of the production season and is on pace to reach a four year low level.

Beef & Veal – Net Trade Remains at a Six Year Low Seasonal Level, Despite Record Seasonal Exports

Dec ’21 U.S. beef & veal export volumes remained at a record high seasonal level for the 13^th time in the past 14 months, finishing 1.0% above previous year levels. The YOY increase in beef & veal export volumes was the 15^th experienced in a row but the smallest experienced throughout the past 11 months on a percentage basis.

YOY increases in beef & veal export volumes were led by shipments destined to China, Hong Kong & Taiwan, followed by shipments destined to South Korea, while export volumes destined to Mexico finished most significantly lower on a YOY basis throughout the month.

Japan, South Korea, China, Hong Kong & Taiwan, Mexico and Canada have historically been the largest importers of U.S. beef & veal products, combining to account for nearly 90% of the total U.S. beef & veal export volumes throughout the past five years. Throughout the past 12 months, U.S. beef & veal export volumes destined to China, Hong Kong & Taiwan have increased most significantly on a YOY basis, while shipments destined to Vietnam and Canada have declined most significantly on a YOY basis over the period.

Dec ’21 U.S. beef & veal import volumes finished above previous year levels for the third consecutive month, increasing by 30.3% and reaching a seven year high seasonal level. Beef & veal export volumes exceeded import volumes for the third time in the past four months throughout Dec ’21, however, resulting in U.S. beef & veal net trade finishing at a positive level but remaining at a six year low seasonal level for the month of December.

’20-’21 annual beef & veal net trade reached an eight year high annual level, rebounding from the negative level experienced throughout the previous production season. ’21-’22 YTD net beef & veal trade is on pace to reach a six year low level, however, based on the first quarter of available data.

Broilers – Exports & Net Trade Each Finish Higher on a YOY Basis for the First Time in Four Months

U.S. broiler export volumes increased 0.9% on a YOY basis throughout Dec ’21, reaching a record high seasonal level. The YOY increase in broiler export volumes was the first experienced throughout the past four months.

YOY increases in U.S. broiler export volumes were led by shipments destined to Cuba, while volumes destined to China, Hong Kong & Taiwan declined most significantly on a YOY basis throughout the month.

Mexico has historically been the largest importer of U.S. broilers, accounting for over one fifth of the total U.S. broiler export volumes throughout the past five years. Throughout the past 12 months, U.S. broiler export volumes destined to Cuba have increased most significantly on a YOY basis, followed by volumes destined to Mexico, while shipments destined to China, Hong Kong & Taiwan have declined most significantly on a YOY basis over the period.

U.S. broiler import volumes finished above previous year levels for the third consecutive month during Dec ’21, increasing by 12.8% and reaching a six year high seasonal level. Broiler import volumes remained at insignificant levels relative to export volumes, however, as Dec ’21 imports amounted to just 2.1% of export volumes. The YOY increase in broiler export volumes more than offset the increase in import volumes experienced throughout Dec ’21, resulting in U.S. broiler net trade finishing 0.7% above previous year levels, reaching an 11 year high seasonal level. The YOY increase in broiler net trade was the first experienced throughout the past four months.

’20-’21 annual net broiler trade finished 4.5% above previous year figures, reaching a record high annual level. ’21-’22 YTD net broiler trade has declined 4.0% on a YOY basis throughout the first quarter of the production season, however.

Combined Net Trade

Overall, combined net trade of U.S. pork, beef and broilers remained below previous year levels for the fourth consecutive month during Dec ’21, finishing down 193.8 million pounds, or 16.2%, and reaching a four year low seasonal level. The YOY decline in combined net trade of U.S. pork, beef and broilers was the largest experienced throughout the past six years on an absolute basis.