Executive Summary

U.S. livestock and meat trade figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Nov ’21. Highlights from the updated report include:

• U.S. pork export volumes remained below previous year levels for the fifth consecutive month throughout Nov ’21 while pork import volumes reached a new record high monthly level for the third consecutive month. Nov ’21 net pork trade remained at a three year low seasonal level, finishing 17.5% below previous year levels.
• U.S. beef & veal export volumes increased 8.1% on a YOY basis throughout Nov ’21, remaining at a record high seasonal level, however net beef & veal trade declined to a seven year low seasonal level.
• U.S. net broiler trade finished below previous year levels for the third consecutive month, declining by 5.2% and remaining at a four year low seasonal level.

Additional Report Details

Pork – Net Trade Remains at a Three Year Low Seasonal Level, Down 17.5% YOY

According to the USDA, U.S. pork export volumes declined 8.2% on a YOY basis throughout Nov ’21, reaching a three year low seasonal level. Pork export volumes have finished below previous year levels over five consecutive months through Nov ’21. Pork export volumes had reached record high seasonal levels over four consecutive months through Jun ’21, prior to declining on a YOY basis throughout the five most recent months of available data.

YOY declines in pork export volumes were led by volumes destined to China, Hong Kong & Taiwan, while pork export volumes destined to Mexico remained most significantly higher on a YOY basis throughout the month. A 72.6% YOY decline in pork export volumes destined to China, Hong Kong & Taiwan more than offset a 16.1% YOY increase in volumes destined to all other countries throughout Nov ’21.

Mexico and Japan have historically been the largest importers of U.S. pork products, accounting for over 45% of the total U.S. pork export volumes throughout the past five years. Combined U.S. pork export volumes destined to Mexico and Japan have increased by 19.5% on a YOY basis throughout the past 12 months. Throughout the past 12 months, YOY increases in U.S. pork exports have been led by product destined to Mexico, while shipments destined to China, Hong Kong & Taiwan have declined most significantly on a YOY basis over the period. U.S. pork exports destined to China, Hong Kong & Taiwan remain elevated when compared to historical figures, however.

U.S. pork import volumes reached a new record high monthly level for the third consecutive month throughout Nov ’21, finishing 48.8% above previous year figures. The YOY increase in pork import volumes was the 13^th experienced throughout the past 14 months. The increase in pork import volumes, coupled with the decline in export volumes, resulted in Nov ’21 U.S. net pork trade finishing 17.5% below previous year levels, remaining at a three year low seasonal level. The YOY decline in net pork trade was the fifth experienced in a row and the largest experienced throughout the past six and a half years on a percentage basis.

’20-’21 annual net pork trade declined 2.9% YOY, finishing below previous year levels for the first time in the past six years. ’21-’22 YTD net pork trade has declined by an additional 16.7% on a YOY basis throughout the first two months of the production season.

Beef & Veal – Exports Remain Higher, However Net Trade Declines to a Seven Year Low Seasonal Level

Nov ’21 U.S. beef & veal export volumes remained at a record high seasonal level for the 12^th time in the past 13 months, finishing 8.1% above previous year levels. The YOY increase in beef & veal export volumes was the 14^th experienced in a row but the smallest experienced throughout the past nine months on a percentage basis.

YOY increases in beef & veal export volumes were led by shipments destined to South Korea, followed by shipments destined to China, Hong Kong & Taiwan, while export volumes destined to Mexico finished most significantly lower on a YOY basis throughout the month.

Japan, South Korea, China, Hong Kong & Taiwan, Mexico and Canada have historically been the largest importers of U.S. beef & veal products, combining to account for nearly 90% of the total U.S. beef & veal export volumes throughout the past five years. Throughout the past 12 months, U.S. beef & veal export volumes destined to China, Hong Kong & Taiwan have increased most significantly on a YOY basis, while shipments destined to Vietnam and Canada have declined most significantly on a YOY basis over the period.

Nov ’21 U.S. beef & veal import volumes finished above previous year levels for the second consecutive month, increasing by 27.5% and remaining at a 17 year high seasonal level. Beef & veal export volumes exceeded import volumes for the second time in the past three months throughout Nov ’21, however, resulting in U.S. beef & veal net trade finishing at a positive level but remaining at a seven year low seasonal level for the month of November.

’20-’21 annual beef & veal net trade reached an eight year high annual level, rebounding from the negative level experienced throughout the previous production season. ’21-’22 YTD net beef & veal trade is on pace to reach a six year low level, however, based on the first two months of available data.

Broilers – Exports & Net Trade Each Reach Four Year Low Seasonal Levels

U.S. broiler export volumes declined 4.4% on a YOY basis throughout Nov ’21, reaching a four year low seasonal level. The YOY decline in broiler export volumes was the third experienced in a row and the second largest experienced throughout the past 18 months on a percentage basis.

YOY declines in U.S. broiler export volumes were led by shipments destined to China, Hong Kong & Taiwan, followed by volumes destined to Mexico, while volumes destined to Cuba increased most significantly on a YOY basis throughout the month.

Mexico has historically been the largest importer of U.S. broilers, accounting for over one fifth of the total U.S. broiler export volumes throughout the past five years. Throughout the past 12 months, U.S. broiler export volumes destined to Cuba have increased most significantly on a YOY basis, followed by volumes destined to Mexico, while shipments destined to China, Hong Kong & Taiwan have declined most significantly on a YOY basis over the period.

U.S. broiler import volumes finished above previous year levels for the second consecutive month during Nov ’21, increasing by 43.4% and reaching a record high seasonal level. Broiler import volumes remained at insignificant levels relative to export volumes, however, as Nov ’21 imports amounted to just 2.4% of export volumes. The YOY decline in broiler export volumes, coupled with the increase in import volumes, resulted in U.S. broiler net trade finishing 5.2% lower on a YOY basis during Nov ’21, remaining at a four year low seasonal level. The YOY decline in broiler net trade was the third experienced in a row.

’20-’21 annual net broiler trade finished up 4.5% YOY, reaching a record high annual level for the first time in the past seven years. ’21-’22 YTD net broiler trade has declined by 6.1% on a YOY basis throughout the first two months of the production season, however, and is on pace to reach a four year low level.

Combined Net Trade

Overall, combined net trade of U.S. pork, beef and broilers remained below previous year levels for the third consecutive month during Nov ’21, finishing down 170.0 million pounds, or 13.9%, and reaching a four year low seasonal level. The YOY decline in combined net trade of U.S. pork, beef and broilers was the largest experienced throughout the past six years on an absolute basis.