Executive Summary

U.S. cold storage figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Oct ’21. Highlights from the updated report include:

• U.S. pork stocks finished 1.7% below previous year levels throughout Oct ’21, reaching a 17 year low seasonal level.
• U.S. beef stocks remained below previous year levels for the eighth consecutive month, finishing down 4.6%.
• U.S. chicken stocks remained at a seven year low seasonal level throughout Oct ’21, finishing 17.0% below previous year levels. The YOY decline in chicken stocks was the 15^th experienced in a row.

Additional Report Details

Pork – Stocks Reach a 17 Year Low Seasonal Level, Finish 1.7% Lower YOY

According to the USDA, Oct ’21 U.S. frozen pork stocks declined seasonally to a ten month low level while finishing 1.7% below previous year levels, reaching a 17 year low seasonal level. The YOY decline in pork stocks was the 18^th experienced throughout the past 19 months. The month-over-month decline in pork stocks of 30.3 million pound, or 6.4%, was larger than the ten year average September – October seasonal decline in stocks of 19.0 million pounds, or 3.2%.

Beef – Stocks Remain Below Previous Year Levels for the Eighth Consecutive Month, Down 4.6%

Oct ’21 U.S. frozen beef stocks increased seasonally to a seven month high level but remained 4.6% below previous year volumes. The YOY decline in beef stocks was the eighth experienced in a row. The month-over-month increase in beef stocks of 37.4 million pounds, or 8.5%, was larger than the ten year average September – October seasonal build in stocks of 7.1 million pounds, or 1.5%.

Chicken – Stocks Remain at a Seven Year Low Seasonal Level, Down 17.0% YOY

Oct ’21 U.S. frozen chicken stocks increased seasonally to an eight month high level but remained 17.0% below previous year levels. Chicken stocks remained at a seven year low seasonal level for the month of October, finishing lower on a YOY basis for the 15^th consecutive month. Chicken stocks had finished higher on a YOY basis over ten consecutive months prior to finishing lower over each of the past 15 months. The month-over-month increase in chicken stocks of 19.3 million pounds, or 2.6%, was slightly smaller than the ten year average September – October seasonal build in stocks of 27.4 million pounds, or 3.6%.

Overall, Oct ’21 combined U.S. pork, beef and chicken stocks finished 19% below the monthly record high level experienced throughout Jan ’20. Individually, Oct ’21 beef and chicken stocks finished 16% and 23% below their respective record high historical storage levels, while pork stocks finished 37% below the maximum historical storage level.

Oct ’21 combined U.S. pork, beef and chicken stocks remained at a seven year low seasonal level, finishing 18% below the record high seasonal level experienced during October of 2019. Individually, Oct ’21 beef and chicken stocks finished 11% and 21% below their respective record high seasonal storage levels, while pork stocks finished 28% below the record high seasonal storage level.

Combined U.S. pork, beef and chicken stocks rebounded seasonally to a seven month high level but remained 10.0% below previous year levels. The Oct ’21 YOY decline in combined U.S. pork, beef and chicken stocks was the 18^th experienced in a row.