Executive Summary

U.S. livestock and meat trade figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Sep ’21. Highlights from the updated report include:

• U.S. pork export volumes remained below previous year levels throughout Sep ’21 while pork import volumes reached a record high monthly level. Sep ’21 net pork trade remained below previous year levels for the third consecutive month, finishing down 15.1%.
• U.S. beef & veal export volumes increased 20.9% on a YOY basis throughout Sep ’21, remaining at a record high seasonal level, while net beef & veal trade finished at a positive level for the first time in the past four months.
• U.S. net broiler trade finished below previous year levels for the first time in the past six months, declining by 3.2%.

Additional Report Details

Pork – Net Trade Remains Lower YOY for the Third Consecutive Month, Down 15.1%

According to the USDA, U.S. pork export volumes declined 6.3% on a YOY basis throughout Sep ’21, finishing below previous year levels for the third consecutive month. Pork export volumes had reached record high seasonal levels over four consecutive months through Jun ’21, prior to declining on a YOY basis throughout the months of July, August and September.

YOY declines in pork export volumes were led by volumes destined to China, Hong Kong & Taiwan, while pork export volumes destined to Mexico remained most significantly higher on a YOY basis throughout the month. A 58.0% YOY decline in pork export volumes destined to China, Hong Kong & Taiwan more than offset a 9.6% YOY increase in volumes destined to all other countries throughout Sep ’21.

Mexico and Japan have historically been the largest importers of U.S. pork products, accounting for over 45% of the total U.S. pork export volumes throughout the past five years. Combined U.S. pork export volumes destined to Mexico and Japan have increased by 18.3% on a YOY basis throughout the past 12 months. Throughout the past 12 months, YOY increases in U.S. pork exports have been led by product destined to Mexico, while shipments destined to China, Hong Kong & Taiwan have declined most significantly on a YOY basis over the period. U.S. pork exports destined to China, Hong Kong & Taiwan remain elevated when compared to historical figures, however.

U.S. pork import volumes reached a record high monthly level throughout Sep ’21, finishing 49.8% above previous year figures. The YOY increase in pork import volumes was the 11^th experienced throughout the past 12 months. The increase in pork import volumes, coupled with the decline in export volumes, resulted in Sep ’21 U.S. net pork trade finishing 15.1% below previous year levels. The YOY decline in net pork trade was the third experienced in a row and the largest experienced throughout the past six and a half years on a percentage basis.

’20-’21 annual net pork trade declined 2.9% YOY, finishing below previous year levels for the first time in the past six years.

Beef & Veal – Exports Remain at a Record High Seasonal Level, Net Trade Finishes Positive

Sep ’21 U.S. beef & veal export volumes declined from the record high monthly level experienced throughout the previous month but remained at a record high seasonal level for the tenth time in the past 11 months, finishing 20.9% above previous year levels. The YOY increase in beef & veal export volumes was the 12^th experienced in a row.

YOY increases in beef & veal export volumes were led by shipments destined to China, Hong Kong & Taiwan, followed by shipments destined to Japan and South Korea, while export volumes destined to Vietnam finished most significantly lower on a YOY basis throughout the month.

Japan, South Korea, China, Hong Kong & Taiwan, Mexico and Canada have historically been the largest importers of U.S. beef & veal products, combining to account for nearly 90% of the total U.S. beef & veal export volumes throughout the past five years. Throughout the past 12 months, U.S. beef & veal export volumes destined to China, Hong Kong & Taiwan have increased most significantly on a YOY basis, while shipments destined to Canada and Vietnam have declined most significantly on a YOY basis over the period.

Sep ’21 U.S. beef & veal import volumes declined on a YOY basis for the third consecutive month, finishing down 5.2%. Beef & veal export volumes exceeded import volumes for the first time in the past four months throughout Sep ’21, resulting in U.S. beef & veal net trade finishing at a positive level.

’20-’21 annual beef & veal net trade reached an eight year high annual level, rebounding from the negative level experienced throughout the previous production season.

Broilers – Exports & Net Trade Decline YOY for the First Time in the Past Six Months

U.S. broiler export volumes declined 3.2% on a YOY basis throughout Sep ’21, finishing below previous year levels for the first time in the past six months. The YOY decline in broiler export volumes was the largest experienced throughout the past 16 months on a percentage basis.

YOY declines in U.S. broiler export volumes were led by shipments destined to China, Hong Kong & Taiwan, followed by volumes destined to Iraq and Canada, while volumes destined to Kazakhstan increased most significantly on a YOY basis throughout the month.

Mexico has historically been the largest importer of U.S. broilers, accounting for over one fifth of the total U.S. broiler export volumes throughout the past five years. Throughout the past 12 months, U.S. broiler export volumes destined to Mexico have increased most significantly on a YOY basis, while shipments destined to Vietnam have declined most significantly on a YOY basis over the period.

U.S. broiler import volumes finished below previous year levels for the third consecutive month during Sep ’21, declining by 2.8% and reaching a four year low seasonal level. Broiler import volumes remained at insignificant levels relative to export volumes, as Sep ’21 imports amounted to just 1.9% of export volumes. The YOY decline in broiler export volumes more than offset the YOY decline in import volumes, resulting in U.S. broiler net trade finishing 3.2% lower on a YOY basis during Sep ’21. The YOY decline in broiler net trade was the first experienced throughout the past six months.

’20-’21 annual net broiler trade finished up 4.5% YOY, reaching a record high annual level, despite the most recent decline.

Combined Net Trade

Overall, combined net trade of U.S. pork, beef and broilers declined on a YOY basis for the first time in the past seven months during Sep ’21, finishing down 25.0 million pounds, or 2.5%. Despite declining on a YOY basis, combined net trade of U.S. pork, beef and broilers remained at the second highest seasonal level experienced throughout the past nine years.