Executive Summary

U.S. cattle on feed figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through the end of Sep ’21. Highlights from the updated report include:

• U.S. cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market as of Oct 1^st declined 1.4% on a YOY basis, remaining below previous year levels for the fourth consecutive month. The YOY decline in the cattle on feed supply was slightly larger than average analyst expectations.
• Placements in feedlots declined 2.9% on a YOY basis throughout Sep ’21, finishing below previous year levels for the fourth time in the past five months. Placements finished below average analyst expectations of a 1.4% increase.
• Marketings of fed cattle declined 3.1% on a YOY basis throughout Sep ’21, finishing below previous year levels for the third time in the past five months. The YOY decline in marketings was slightly larger than average analyst expectations.

Additional Report Details

According to the USDA, Oct 1^st cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in the U.S. for feedlots with capacity of a thousand head or more rebounded seasonally to a four month high level but remained 1.4% below previous year levels. The YOY decline in the cattle on feed supply was the fourth experienced in a row. The 1.4% YOY decline in the cattle on feed supply was slightly larger than average analyst expectations of a 0.6% decline.

The Oct ’21 cattle on feed inventory included 7.07 million steers and steer calves, down 3.4% from 2020 levels, and 4.49 million heifers and heifer calves, up 1.8% from the previous year.

Placements in feedlots increased seasonally to a 12 month high level but remained 2.9% below previous year levels throughout Sep ’21. The YOY decline in placements was the fourth experienced throughout the past five months. Placements finished below average analyst expectations of a 1.4% increase. YOY declines in placements were led by those weighing 800 pounds or more (-5.3%), followed by placements weighing 600 pounds or less (-2.2%) and placements weighing 700-799 pounds (-1.0%). Placements weighing 600-699 pounds finished equal to previous year levels throughout the month.

Total placements in feedlots declined 0.9% on a YOY basis throughout the ’19-’20 production season, reaching a four year low level. ’20-’21 annual placements rebounded by 0.2% on a YOY basis, despite the recently experienced declines.

Cattle placements weighing under 700 pounds declined 1.2% on a YOY basis during Sep ’21, finishing below previous year levels for the fifth consecutive month. Cattle placements weighing under 700 pounds finished 0.2% above previous year levels throughout the ’19-’20 production season however ’20-’21 annual placements weighing under 700 pounds declined by 2.6% on a YOY basis, reaching a four year low level.

Cattle placements weighing 700 pounds or more declined 3.8% on a YOY basis during Sep ’21, finishing below previous year levels for the third time in the past five months. Cattle placements weighing 700 pounds or more declined 1.7% on a YOY basis throughout the ’19-’20 production season however ’20-’21 annual placements weighing 700 pounds or more rebounded by 2.1% on a YOY basis, despite the recently experienced declines.

Marketings of fed cattle declined 3.1% on a YOY basis throughout Sep ’21, finishing below previous year levels for the third consecutive month. The 3.1% YOY decline in marketings finished slightly larger than average analyst expectations of a 2.5% decline.

’19-’20 annual marketings of fed cattle declined 2.9% on a YOY basis from the 11 year high level experienced throughout the previous production season. ’20-’21 annual marketings rebounded by 3.1% on a YOY basis, despite the recently experienced declines, reaching a 13 year high level.