Corn – U.S. and Global Ending Stocks Below Private Estimates

• ’21-’22 U.S. ending stocks of 1.242 billion bushels below expectations
• ’21-’22 global ending stocks of 284.6 million MT below expectations

The ’21-’22 U.S. corn supply projection was reduced from the previous month as a 4.9 bu/acre reduction in yields more than offset slightly higher beginning stocks. The ’21-’22 corn yield projection of 174.6 bu/acre finished 1.7% below expectations of a 177.6 bu/acre yield. The U.S. corn demand projection was reduced from the previous month largely on declines in feed & residual usage and exports, offsetting half of the projected supply reduction. ’21-’22 projected U.S. corn ending stocks of 1.242 billion bushels, or 30.9 days of use, finished 13.3% below the previous month and 2.0% below expectations. The ’21-’22 global corn ending stock projection finished 2.2% below the previous month and 1.2% below expectations, primarily on the decline in U.S. production.

Soybeans – U.S. and Global Ending Stocks Mixed vs. Private Estimates

• ’21-’22 U.S. ending stocks of 155 million bushels below expectations
• ’21-’22 global ending stocks of 96.2 million MT above expectations

The ’21-’22 U.S. soybean supply projection was reduced from the previous month as a 0.8 bu/acre reduction in yields more than offset higher beginning stocks. The ’21-’22 soybean yield projection of 50.0 bu/acre finished 0.8% below expectations of a 50.4 bu/acre yield. The U.S. soybean demand projection was reduced from the previous month largely on declines in food, seed & industrial usage and exports, offsetting the projected supply reduction. ’21-’22 projected U.S. soybean ending stocks of 155 million bushels, or 12.9 days of use, finished unchanged from the previous month and 2.5% below expectations. The ’21-’22 global soybean ending stock projection finished 1.8% above the previous month and 1.6% above expectations, largely on an increase in Chinese beginning stocks and a reduction in Chinese imports.

Soybean Complex – U.S. Oil Stocks Reduced, U.S. Meal Stocks Unchanged

The ’21-’22 U.S. soybean oil ending stock projection was reduced from the previous month as a reduction in production more than offset lower demand figures. A reduction in anticipated biofuel demand more than offset higher projected food, feed and industrial usage. Globally, ’21-’22 soybean oil ending stocks were raised from the previous month, largely on an increase in Brazilian beginning stocks.

The ’21-’22 U.S. soybean meal ending stock projection was unchanged from the previous month as a reduction in production was offset by lower projected exports and domestic usage. Globally, ’21-’22 global soybean meal ending stocks were reduced from the previous month, largely on a decline in Argentine beginning stocks.

Wheat – U.S. and Global Ending Stocks Below Private Estimates

• ’21-’22 U.S. ending stocks of 627 million bushels below expectations
• ’21-’22 global ending stocks of 279.1 million MT below expectations

The ’21-’22 U.S. wheat supply projection was reduced from the previous month on a 1.3 bu/acre reduction in yields. The U.S. wheat demand projection was reduced slightly from the previous month largely on a reduction in feed & residual usage. ’21-’22 projected U.S. wheat ending stocks of 627 million bushels, or 111.1 days of use, finished 5.7% below the previous month and 2.6% below expectations. The ’21-’22 global wheat ending stock projection finished 4.3% below the previous month and 3.2% below expectations, primarily on a decline in Russian production.

Ending Stocks vs. Expectations Summary

Overall, ’21-’22 projected global wheat ending stocks finished most significantly below expectations, followed by domestic wheat ending stocks, domestic soybean ending stocks, domestic corn ending stocks and global corn ending stocks. Global soybean ending stocks finished above expectations.