Executive Summary

U.S. dairy dry product stock figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Jun ’21. Highlights from the updated report include:

• U.S. dry whey stocks remained lower on a YOY basis for the ninth time in the past ten months throughout Jun ’21, finishing 26.3% below previous year figures and reaching a seven year low seasonal level.
• U.S. nonfat dry milk stocks finished 24.3% above previous year levels throughout Jun ’21, remaining at a record high seasonal level and reaching a 14 month high level, overall.

Additional Report Details

Dry Whey – Stocks Decline to a Seven Year Low Seasonal Level, Down 26.3% YOY

According to the USDA, Jun ’21 month-end dry whey stocks declined from the previous month while finishing 26.3% below previous year levels. The YOY decline in dry whey stocks was the ninth experienced throughout the past ten months and the largest experienced throughout the past 30 months on a percentage basis.

The month-over-month decline in dry whey stocks of 3.3 million pounds, or 5.0%, was larger than the ten year average May – June seasonal decline in dry whey stocks of 0.9 million pounds, or 0.8%. Dry whey production declined 1.3% on a YOY basis throughout Jun ’21, finishing below previous year figures for the ninth time in the past 11 months.

On a days of usage basis, Jun ’21 U.S. dry whey stocks also remained lower YOY. When assuming 12-month rolling average YOY changes in usage rates and known stock values for the month of June, dry whey stocks on a days of usage basis finished 25.7% lower YOY, declining on a YOY basis for the ninth time in the past ten months.

Nonfat Dry Milk – Stocks Remain at a Record High Seasonal Level, up 24.3% YOY

Jun ’21 month-end nonfat dry milk (NFDM) stocks increased contraseasonally from the previous month while finishing 24.3% above previous year levels, remaining at a record high seasonal level. NFDM stocks reached a 14 month high level, overall. The YOY increase in NFDM stocks was the largest experienced throughout the past 14 months.

The month-over-month increase in NFDM stocks of 1.3 million pounds, or 0.4%, was a contraseasonal move when compared to the ten year average May – June seasonal decline in stocks of 4.8 million pounds, or 1.4%. NFDM production increased 19.8% on a YOY basis throughout Jun ’21, reaching a record high seasonal level.

On a days of usage basis, Jun ’21 U.S. NFDM stocks also remained higher YOY. When assuming 12-month rolling average YOY changes in usage rates and known stock values for the month of June, NFDM stocks on a days of usage basis finished 17.7% above previous year figures, increasing on a YOY basis for the second consecutive month.

Combined Dairy Product Stocks – Stocks Remain at a Record High Seasonal Level, Finish up 5.4% YOY

Jun ’21 combined stocks of butter, cheese, dry whey and NFDM finished 5.4% above previous year levels, reaching a record high seasonal level for the month of June. Combined dairy product stocks have reached record high seasonal levels over 16 of the past 17 months through Jun ’21.