Corn – U.S. and Global Ending Stocks Above Private Estimates

• ’20-’21 U.S. ending stocks of 1.502 billion bushels significantly above expectations
• ’20-’21 global ending stocks of 286.5 million MT above expectations

The ’20-’21 U.S. corn supply projection was unchanged from the previous month while the corn demand projection was raised from the previous month on an increase in projected exports. ’20-’21 projected U.S. corn ending stocks of 1.502 billion bushels, or 37.5 days of use, finished 3.2% below the previous month but remained 7.9% above expectations.

The ’20-’21 global corn ending stock projection finished 1.0% above the previous month and 2.4% above expectations. Chinese corn ending stocks were raised sharply from the previous month as an increase in projected imports more than offset an increase in domestic feed usage.

Soybeans – U.S. and Global Ending Stocks Mixed vs. Private Estimates

• ’20-’21 U.S. ending stocks of 120 million bushels below expectations
• ’20-’21 global ending stocks of 83.4 million MT slightly above expectations

The ’20-’21 U.S. soybean supply projection was unchanged from the previous month while the soybean demand projection was raised from the previous month on an increase in projected exports. ’20-’21 projected U.S. soybean ending stocks of 120 million bushels, or 9.6 days of use, finished 14.3% below the previous month and 2.4% below expectations.

The ’20-’21 global soybean ending stock projection finished 1.1% below the previous month but remained 0.1% above expectations. The reduction in domestic soybean ending stocks accounted for over half of the total reduction in global ending stocks from the previous month. Argentine soybean ending stocks were also reduced from the previous month on a reduction in beginning stocks.

Soybean Complex – U.S. Oil Stocks Lower, Meal Stocks Unchanged

The ’20-’21 U.S. soybean oil ending stock projection was reduced from the previous month on a projected increase in biodiesel usage. The ’20-’21 U.S. soybean meal ending stock projection was unchanged from the previous month.

Globally, ’20-’21 soybean oil ending stocks were reduced from the previous month, largely on a decline in North African beginning stocks. ’20-’21 global soybean meal ending stocks were also reduced from the previous month, largely on an increase in Argentine exports.

Wheat – U.S. and Global Ending Stocks Mixed vs. Private Estimates

• ’20-’21 U.S. ending stocks of 836 million bushels slightly above expectations
• ’20-’21 global ending stocks of 304.2 million MT below expectations

The ’20-’21 U.S. wheat supply and demand projections were unchanged from the previous month. ’20-’21 projected U.S. wheat ending stocks of 836 million bushels, or 142.7 days of use, finishing 0.2% above expectations.

The ’20-’21 global wheat ending stock projection finished 2.9% below the previous month and 2.8% below expectations on reductions in Chinese and Indian ending stocks. Chinese and Indian wheat ending stocks were both reduced from the previous month on increases in domestic usage.

Ending Stocks vs. Expectations Summary

Overall, ’20-’21 projected domestic corn ending stocks finished most significantly above expectations, followed by global corn ending stocks, domestic wheat ending stocks and global soybean ending stocks. Global wheat ending stocks and domestic soybean ending stocks finished below expectations.