U.S. Cattle on Feed Update – Dec ’20
Executive Summary
U.S. cattle on feed figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through the end of Nov ’20. Highlights from the updated report include:
Placements in feedlots declined on a YOY basis for the second consecutive month during Nov ‘20, finishing down 8.9% and reaching a four year seasonal low level. The YOY decline in placements was largely consistent with average analyst expectations of an 8.5% decline. YOY declines in placements were led by those weighing 600 pounds or less (-16.1%), followed by placements weighing 600-699 pounds (-8.0%), 700-799 pounds (-5.4%) and 800 pounds or more (-4.4%).
Total placements in feedlots declined 1.6% on a YOY basis throughout the ’18-’19 production season, however annual placement rates remained 2.8% above three year average figures. ’19-’20 annual placements declined by an additional 0.9% on a YOY basis.
Cattle placements weighing under 700 pounds declined 12.5% on a YOY basis during Nov ’20, reaching a four year low seasonal level. The YOY decline in cattle placements weighing under 700 pounds was the second experienced in a row and the largest experienced throughout the past seven months. Cattle placements weighing under 700 pounds finished 3.4% lower on a YOY basis throughout the ’18-’19 production season however ’19-’20 annual placements rebounded by 0.2%.
Cattle placements weighing 700 pounds or more declined 4.8% on a YOY basis during Nov ’20, finishing lower for the second consecutive month. Cattle placements weighing 700 pounds or more declined 0.3% on a YOY basis throughout the ’18-’19 production season while ’19-’20 annual placements declined by an additional 1.6%.
Marketings of fed cattle declined 1.7% on a YOY basis throughout Nov ’20, finishing lower for the fourth time in the past five months. The YOY decline in marketings was largely consistent with average analyst expectations of a 1.9% decline. Marketings of fed cattle had reached record low levels over the months of April and May as slaughterhouses slowed or closed operations due to outbreaks of COVID-19, prior to rebounding throughout the past several months of data. ’18-’19 annual marketings of fed cattle increased 1.3% YOY, reaching an 11 year high, however ’19-’20 annual marketings declined by 2.9% on a YOY basis.
- U.S. cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market as of Dec 1st increased seasonally to a nine year high level but finished less than 0.1% above previous year figures. The YOY change in cattle on feed figures was consistent with analyst expectations.
- Placements in feedlots declined 8.9% on a YOY basis throughout Nov ’20, reaching a four year seasonal low level. The YOY decline in marketings was largely consistent with analyst expectations.
- Marketings of fed cattle declined 1.7% on a YOY basis throughout Nov ’20, finishing lower for the fourth time in the past five months. The YOY decline in marketings was largely consistent with analyst expectations.
Placements in feedlots declined on a YOY basis for the second consecutive month during Nov ‘20, finishing down 8.9% and reaching a four year seasonal low level. The YOY decline in placements was largely consistent with average analyst expectations of an 8.5% decline. YOY declines in placements were led by those weighing 600 pounds or less (-16.1%), followed by placements weighing 600-699 pounds (-8.0%), 700-799 pounds (-5.4%) and 800 pounds or more (-4.4%).
Total placements in feedlots declined 1.6% on a YOY basis throughout the ’18-’19 production season, however annual placement rates remained 2.8% above three year average figures. ’19-’20 annual placements declined by an additional 0.9% on a YOY basis.
Cattle placements weighing under 700 pounds declined 12.5% on a YOY basis during Nov ’20, reaching a four year low seasonal level. The YOY decline in cattle placements weighing under 700 pounds was the second experienced in a row and the largest experienced throughout the past seven months. Cattle placements weighing under 700 pounds finished 3.4% lower on a YOY basis throughout the ’18-’19 production season however ’19-’20 annual placements rebounded by 0.2%.
Cattle placements weighing 700 pounds or more declined 4.8% on a YOY basis during Nov ’20, finishing lower for the second consecutive month. Cattle placements weighing 700 pounds or more declined 0.3% on a YOY basis throughout the ’18-’19 production season while ’19-’20 annual placements declined by an additional 1.6%.
Marketings of fed cattle declined 1.7% on a YOY basis throughout Nov ’20, finishing lower for the fourth time in the past five months. The YOY decline in marketings was largely consistent with average analyst expectations of a 1.9% decline. Marketings of fed cattle had reached record low levels over the months of April and May as slaughterhouses slowed or closed operations due to outbreaks of COVID-19, prior to rebounding throughout the past several months of data. ’18-’19 annual marketings of fed cattle increased 1.3% YOY, reaching an 11 year high, however ’19-’20 annual marketings declined by 2.9% on a YOY basis.