U.S. Dairy Dry Product Stocks Update – Dec ’20
Executive Summary
U.S. dairy dry product stock figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Oct ’20. Highlights from the updated report include:
According to the USDA, Oct ’20 month-end dry whey stocks declined seasonally to a nine month low level while finishing 14.3% below previous year figures, reaching a four year low seasonal level. The YOY decline in dry whey stocks was the second experienced in a row.
The MOM decline in dry whey stocks of 11.2 million pounds, or 14.2%, was significantly greater than the ten year average September – October seasonal decline in dry whey stocks of 1.2 million pounds, or 0.5%. Dry whey production declined 11.8% on a YOY basis throughout Oct ’20, finishing lower for the third consecutive month.
On a days of usage basis, Oct ’20 U.S. dry whey stocks also finished lower YOY. When assuming 12-month rolling average YOY changes in usage rates and known stock values for the month of October, dry whey stocks on a days of usage basis finished 14.7% lower YOY, declining on a YOY basis for the second consecutive month.
Nonfat Dry Milk – Stocks Increase 7.8% YOY but Remain Below Three Year Average Seasonal Levels
Oct ’20 month-end nonfat dry milk (NFDM) stocks increased contraseasonally from the ten month low level experienced throughout the previous month while finishing 7.8% higher on a YOY basis. The YOY increase in NFDM stocks was the third experienced throughout the past four months. Despite finishing higher on a YOY basis, NFDM remained 10.5% below three year average seasonal figures, finishing lower for the third consecutive month.
The MOM increase in NFDM stocks of 1.6 million pounds, or 0.7%, was a contraseasonal move when compared to the ten year average September – October seasonal decline in stocks of 12.1 million pounds, or 6.9%. NFDM production increased 4.3% on a YOY basis throughout Oct ’20, finishing higher for the third consecutive month.
On a days of usage basis, Oct ’20 U.S. NFDM stocks also finished higher YOY. When assuming 12-month rolling average YOY changes in usage rates and known stock values for the month of October, NFDM stocks on a days of usage basis finished 3.8% above previous year figures, increasing on a YOY basis for the first time in the past three months.
Combined Dairy Product Stocks – Stocks Remain at a Record High Seasonal Level, Finishing up 3.6%
Oct ’20 combined stocks of butter, cheese, dry whey and NFDM declined seasonally to a ten month low level but remained 3.6% higher on a YOY basis, finishing at a record high seasonal level. The YOY increase in combined stocks was the ninth experienced in a row.
- U.S. dry whey stocks finished 14.3% below previous year figures throughout Oct ’20, reaching a four year low seasonal level.
- U.S. nonfat dry milk stocks increased contraseasonally from the previous month throughout Oct ’20 while finishing 7.8% higher on a YOY basis. Nonfat dry milk stocks remained below three year average seasonal levels for the third consecutive month, however.
According to the USDA, Oct ’20 month-end dry whey stocks declined seasonally to a nine month low level while finishing 14.3% below previous year figures, reaching a four year low seasonal level. The YOY decline in dry whey stocks was the second experienced in a row.
The MOM decline in dry whey stocks of 11.2 million pounds, or 14.2%, was significantly greater than the ten year average September – October seasonal decline in dry whey stocks of 1.2 million pounds, or 0.5%. Dry whey production declined 11.8% on a YOY basis throughout Oct ’20, finishing lower for the third consecutive month.
On a days of usage basis, Oct ’20 U.S. dry whey stocks also finished lower YOY. When assuming 12-month rolling average YOY changes in usage rates and known stock values for the month of October, dry whey stocks on a days of usage basis finished 14.7% lower YOY, declining on a YOY basis for the second consecutive month.
Nonfat Dry Milk – Stocks Increase 7.8% YOY but Remain Below Three Year Average Seasonal Levels
Oct ’20 month-end nonfat dry milk (NFDM) stocks increased contraseasonally from the ten month low level experienced throughout the previous month while finishing 7.8% higher on a YOY basis. The YOY increase in NFDM stocks was the third experienced throughout the past four months. Despite finishing higher on a YOY basis, NFDM remained 10.5% below three year average seasonal figures, finishing lower for the third consecutive month.
The MOM increase in NFDM stocks of 1.6 million pounds, or 0.7%, was a contraseasonal move when compared to the ten year average September – October seasonal decline in stocks of 12.1 million pounds, or 6.9%. NFDM production increased 4.3% on a YOY basis throughout Oct ’20, finishing higher for the third consecutive month.
On a days of usage basis, Oct ’20 U.S. NFDM stocks also finished higher YOY. When assuming 12-month rolling average YOY changes in usage rates and known stock values for the month of October, NFDM stocks on a days of usage basis finished 3.8% above previous year figures, increasing on a YOY basis for the first time in the past three months.
Combined Dairy Product Stocks – Stocks Remain at a Record High Seasonal Level, Finishing up 3.6%
Oct ’20 combined stocks of butter, cheese, dry whey and NFDM declined seasonally to a ten month low level but remained 3.6% higher on a YOY basis, finishing at a record high seasonal level. The YOY increase in combined stocks was the ninth experienced in a row.