U.S. Dairy Cold Storage Update – Nov ’20
Executive Summary
U.S. cold storage figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Oct ’20. Highlights from the updated report include:
According to the USDA, Oct ’20 U.S. butter stocks declined seasonally to a nine month low level but remained 28.0% higher on a YOY basis, reaching a 27 year high seasonal level for the month of October. The YOY increase in butter stocks was the 16th experienced in a row. The MOM decline in butter stocks of 43.7 million pounds, or 12.7%, was largely consistent with the ten year average September – October seasonal decline of 34.3 million pounds, or 15.3%. Butter stocks typically reach seasonal high levels throughout the months of May and June prior to declining throughout the second half of the calendar year.
On a days of usage basis, Oct ’20 U.S. butter stocks also finished higher YOY. When assuming 12-month rolling average YOY changes in usage rates and known stock values for the month of October, butter stocks on a days of usage basis increased YOY for the sixth time in the past seven months, finishing up 25.3%.
Cheese – Stocks Decline to a Ten Month Low Level, Finish 0.2% Lower YOY
Oct ’20 U.S. cheese stocks declined seasonally to a ten month low level while finishing 0.2% below previous year volumes, reaching a three year seasonal low level. The YOY decline in cheese stocks was the second experienced in a row. Other-than-American cheese stocks declined 2.3% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 1.4% YOY increase in American cheese stocks. The MOM decline in cheese stocks of 17.3 million pounds, or 1.3%, was slightly smaller than the ten year average September – October seasonal decline of 24.1 million pounds, or 2.1%.
On a days of usage basis, Oct ’20 U.S. cheese stocks finished slightly higher YOY. When assuming 12-month rolling average YOY changes in usage rates and known stock values for the month of October, cheese stocks on a days of usage basis increased YOY for the third time in the past four months, finishing up 0.4%.
Combined Dairy Product Stocks – Oct ’20 Stocks Projected to Remain Higher YOY
Combined stocks of butter, cheese, dry whey and nonfat dry milk remained at a record high seasonal level for the eighth consecutive month throughout Sep ’20, finishing 0.7% above previous year levels. The YOY increase in combined stocks of butter, cheese, dry whey and nonfat dry milk was the smallest experienced throughout the eight month period, however.
Combined stocks of butter, cheese, dry whey and nonfat dry milk are projected to remain higher on a YOY basis throughout Oct ’20 when using actual butter and cheese stock figures and previous month YOY changes in dry whey and nonfat dry milk stocks, increasing by an estimated 2.4% but remaining below the October 2018 record high seasonal level. Oct ’20 dry whey and nonfat dry milk stock figures are scheduled to be available December 3rd.
- U.S. butter stocks declined seasonally to a nine month low level throughout Oct ’20 but remained higher on a YOY basis for the 16th consecutive month, finishing up 28.0% and reaching a 27 year high seasonal level.
- U.S. cheese stocks declined seasonally to a ten month low level throughout Oct ’20, finishing 0.2% lower on a YOY basis and reaching a three year seasonal low level.
According to the USDA, Oct ’20 U.S. butter stocks declined seasonally to a nine month low level but remained 28.0% higher on a YOY basis, reaching a 27 year high seasonal level for the month of October. The YOY increase in butter stocks was the 16th experienced in a row. The MOM decline in butter stocks of 43.7 million pounds, or 12.7%, was largely consistent with the ten year average September – October seasonal decline of 34.3 million pounds, or 15.3%. Butter stocks typically reach seasonal high levels throughout the months of May and June prior to declining throughout the second half of the calendar year.
On a days of usage basis, Oct ’20 U.S. butter stocks also finished higher YOY. When assuming 12-month rolling average YOY changes in usage rates and known stock values for the month of October, butter stocks on a days of usage basis increased YOY for the sixth time in the past seven months, finishing up 25.3%.
Cheese – Stocks Decline to a Ten Month Low Level, Finish 0.2% Lower YOY
Oct ’20 U.S. cheese stocks declined seasonally to a ten month low level while finishing 0.2% below previous year volumes, reaching a three year seasonal low level. The YOY decline in cheese stocks was the second experienced in a row. Other-than-American cheese stocks declined 2.3% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 1.4% YOY increase in American cheese stocks. The MOM decline in cheese stocks of 17.3 million pounds, or 1.3%, was slightly smaller than the ten year average September – October seasonal decline of 24.1 million pounds, or 2.1%.
On a days of usage basis, Oct ’20 U.S. cheese stocks finished slightly higher YOY. When assuming 12-month rolling average YOY changes in usage rates and known stock values for the month of October, cheese stocks on a days of usage basis increased YOY for the third time in the past four months, finishing up 0.4%.
Combined Dairy Product Stocks – Oct ’20 Stocks Projected to Remain Higher YOY
Combined stocks of butter, cheese, dry whey and nonfat dry milk remained at a record high seasonal level for the eighth consecutive month throughout Sep ’20, finishing 0.7% above previous year levels. The YOY increase in combined stocks of butter, cheese, dry whey and nonfat dry milk was the smallest experienced throughout the eight month period, however.
Combined stocks of butter, cheese, dry whey and nonfat dry milk are projected to remain higher on a YOY basis throughout Oct ’20 when using actual butter and cheese stock figures and previous month YOY changes in dry whey and nonfat dry milk stocks, increasing by an estimated 2.4% but remaining below the October 2018 record high seasonal level. Oct ’20 dry whey and nonfat dry milk stock figures are scheduled to be available December 3rd.