U.S. Milk Production Update – Nov ’20
Executive Summary
U.S. milk production figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Oct ’20. Highlights from the updated report include:
U.S. milk production volumes had finished higher on a YOY basis over 61 consecutive months from Jan ’14 – Jan ‘19, reaching the longest period of consecutive growth on record, prior to declining by a total of 0.3% from Feb ’19 – Jun ’19. Milk production volumes rebounded throughout more recent months, however, finishing higher over 15 of the past 16 months through Oct ’20. The 12-month rolling average milk production growth rate reached a 31 month high level throughout Oct ’20.
YOY increases in production on a percentage basis were led by South Dakota (+12.9%), followed by Indiana (+10.7%) and Texas (+8.2%), while production volumes finished most significantly lower YOY on a percentage basis within Vermont (-5.4%), Utah (-3.7%) and Oregon (-2.3%). Wisconsin milk production finished higher on a YOY basis for the third time in the past four months, finishing 1.7% above previous year levels. Wisconsin milk production had declined on a YOY basis over seven of eight months through Jun ’20. Overall, 17 of the 24 states milk production figures are provided for experienced YOY increases in production throughout the month.
California milk production volumes increased on a YOY basis for the tenth consecutive month throughout Oct ’20, finishing up 1.2%. The YOY increase in California milk production volumes was the smallest experienced throughout the past five months on a percentage basis, however. California accounted for 18.3% of total U.S. milk production volumes throughout the month, leading all states.
Nine of the top ten largest milk producing states experienced YOY increases in production throughout Oct ’20, as milk production within the top ten milk producing states increased by a weighted average of 2.3% throughout the month. The aforementioned states accounted for nearly three quarters of the total U.S. milk production experienced during Oct ’20. Production volumes outside of the top ten largest milk producing states increased 2.5% on a YOY basis throughout the month.
Oct ’20 YOY increases in milk production on an absolute basis were led by Texas, followed by Wisconsin and California, while YOY declines in production on an absolute basis were most significant throughout Vermont.
The Sep ’20 U.S. milk cow herd figure was revised 10,000 head higher than levels previous stated while the Oct ’20 figure increased an additional 14,000 head, reaching a 27 month high level. The U.S. milk cow herd currently stands at 9.39 million head, finishing 43,000 head above the previous year but remaining 48,000 head below the 23 year high level experienced during Jan ’18.
U.S. milk per cow yields finished 1.9% above previous year levels, finishing higher on a YOY basis for the 59th time in the past 60 months. The YOY increase in milk per cow yields was the largest experienced throughout the past seven months. Yields experienced throughout the Midwestern states of Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa and Illinois finished 3.0% higher on a YOY basis while yields experienced throughout the Western states of California, Idaho, Washington and Oregon increased 0.4% YOY.
Month-over-month increases in the Texas, New Mexico, Ohio, Idaho, Michigan, Colorado, Indiana, Florida and Illinois milk cow herds more than offset a decline in the California milk cow herd throughout Oct ’20.
YOY increases in milk cow herds continued to be led by Texas, followed by Indiana, Idaho and South Dakota, while the Wisconsin milk cow herd remained most significantly lower on a YOY basis throughout the month.
- U.S. milk production increased on a YOY basis for the 15th time in the past 16 months, finishing 2.3% above the previous year and reaching a record high seasonal level. YOY increases in production on an absolute basis were led by Texas, followed by Wisconsin and California.
- The Sep ’20 U.S. milk cow herd figure was revised 10,000 head higher than levels previously stated while the Oct ’20 figure increased an additional 14,000 head, reaching a 27 month high level. Milk cow herd figures finished 43,000 head above the previous year but remained 48,000 head below the 23 year high level experienced during Jan ’18.
- U.S. milk per cow yields increased 1.9% on a YOY basis throughout Oct ’20, finishing higher for the 59th time in the past 60 months. The YOY increase in milk per cow yields was the largest experienced throughout the past seven months.
U.S. milk production volumes had finished higher on a YOY basis over 61 consecutive months from Jan ’14 – Jan ‘19, reaching the longest period of consecutive growth on record, prior to declining by a total of 0.3% from Feb ’19 – Jun ’19. Milk production volumes rebounded throughout more recent months, however, finishing higher over 15 of the past 16 months through Oct ’20. The 12-month rolling average milk production growth rate reached a 31 month high level throughout Oct ’20.
YOY increases in production on a percentage basis were led by South Dakota (+12.9%), followed by Indiana (+10.7%) and Texas (+8.2%), while production volumes finished most significantly lower YOY on a percentage basis within Vermont (-5.4%), Utah (-3.7%) and Oregon (-2.3%). Wisconsin milk production finished higher on a YOY basis for the third time in the past four months, finishing 1.7% above previous year levels. Wisconsin milk production had declined on a YOY basis over seven of eight months through Jun ’20. Overall, 17 of the 24 states milk production figures are provided for experienced YOY increases in production throughout the month.
California milk production volumes increased on a YOY basis for the tenth consecutive month throughout Oct ’20, finishing up 1.2%. The YOY increase in California milk production volumes was the smallest experienced throughout the past five months on a percentage basis, however. California accounted for 18.3% of total U.S. milk production volumes throughout the month, leading all states.
Nine of the top ten largest milk producing states experienced YOY increases in production throughout Oct ’20, as milk production within the top ten milk producing states increased by a weighted average of 2.3% throughout the month. The aforementioned states accounted for nearly three quarters of the total U.S. milk production experienced during Oct ’20. Production volumes outside of the top ten largest milk producing states increased 2.5% on a YOY basis throughout the month.
Oct ’20 YOY increases in milk production on an absolute basis were led by Texas, followed by Wisconsin and California, while YOY declines in production on an absolute basis were most significant throughout Vermont.
The Sep ’20 U.S. milk cow herd figure was revised 10,000 head higher than levels previous stated while the Oct ’20 figure increased an additional 14,000 head, reaching a 27 month high level. The U.S. milk cow herd currently stands at 9.39 million head, finishing 43,000 head above the previous year but remaining 48,000 head below the 23 year high level experienced during Jan ’18.
U.S. milk per cow yields finished 1.9% above previous year levels, finishing higher on a YOY basis for the 59th time in the past 60 months. The YOY increase in milk per cow yields was the largest experienced throughout the past seven months. Yields experienced throughout the Midwestern states of Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa and Illinois finished 3.0% higher on a YOY basis while yields experienced throughout the Western states of California, Idaho, Washington and Oregon increased 0.4% YOY.
Month-over-month increases in the Texas, New Mexico, Ohio, Idaho, Michigan, Colorado, Indiana, Florida and Illinois milk cow herds more than offset a decline in the California milk cow herd throughout Oct ’20.
YOY increases in milk cow herds continued to be led by Texas, followed by Indiana, Idaho and South Dakota, while the Wisconsin milk cow herd remained most significantly lower on a YOY basis throughout the month.