U.S. Dairy Commercial Disappearance Update – Nov ’20
Executive Summary
U.S. dairy commercial disappearance figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Sep ’20. Highlights from the updated report include:
U.S. commercial disappearance for milk used in all products on a skim-solids basis increased on a YOY basis for the fifth consecutive month during Sep ’20, finishing up 5.8% and reaching a record high seasonal level. Domestic demand increased 6.1% on a YOY basis throughout the month while export demand finished 4.7% higher. The YOY increase in skim-solids domestic demand was the first experienced throughout the past 11 months.
’18-’19 annual commercial disappearance for milk used in all products on a skim-solids basis declined 0.6% YOY from the record high levels experienced throughout the previous production season, despite domestic demand increasing 2.5%, reaching the highest annual figure on record. ’19-’20 annual commercial disappearance for milk used in all products on a skim-solids basis rebounded by 1.6%.
Butter – Disappearance Reaches a Record High Seasonal Level, Finishes up 12.2% YOY
U.S. butter commercial disappearance increased 12.2% on a YOY basis during Sep ’20, reaching a record high seasonal level. The YOY increase in butter commercial disappearance was the first experienced throughout the past three months. Domestic butter demand increased 12.7% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 10.2% decline in export demand.
’18-’19 annual butter disappearance finished 3.5% higher YOY, reaching a record high level. Domestic disappearance increased 4.5%, also reaching the highest annual figure on record. ’19-’20 annual butter disappearance increased an additional 2.4% as a 2.6% YOY increase in domestic disappearance more than offset a 4.9% YOY decline in export demand.
U.S. butter domestic use and export figures outpaced production and import figures during Sep ’20, resulting in stocks declining seasonally to a six month low level. Butter stocks typically reach seasonal high levels throughout the summer months prior to declining seasonally until lows are reached throughout the months of November and December.
Cheese – Disappearance Reaches a Record High Seasonal Level, Finishes up 3.0% YOY
Sep ’20 U.S. cheese commercial disappearance increased 3.0% on a YOY basis throughout Sep ’20, reaching a record high seasonal level. The YOY increase in cheese commercial disappearance was the fourth experienced throughout the past five months. American cheese disappearance increased 10.2% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 1.3% YOY declined in other-than-American cheese disappearance. Domestic cheese demand increased 2.9% on a YOY basis throughout the month while export demand finished 4.2% higher.
’18-’19 annual cheese disappearance increased 2.2% to a record annual high as domestic demand increased 2.3%, also reaching the highest figure on record. ’19-’20 annual cheese disappearance declined by 0.2%, however.
U.S. cheese domestic use and export figures outpaced production and import figures during Sep ’20, resulting in stocks declining for the fifth consecutive month. Cheese stocks declined to an eight month low level, overall.
Dry Whey – Disappearance Rebounds to a Three Year Seasonal High Level, Finishes up 1.9% YOY
U.S. dry whey commercial disappearance increased 1.9% on a YOY basis during Sep ’20, reaching a three year seasonal high level. The YOY increase in dry whey commercial disappearance was the third experienced throughout the past four months. Dry whey export demand increased 52.3% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 23.8% YOY decline in domestic demand. Dry whey exports have finished higher on a YOY basis over eight consecutive months through September while domestic demand has declined over six consecutive months.
’18-’19 annual dry whey disappearance declined 9.7% YOY from the ten year high level experienced throughout the previous production season, finishing at a four year low level, overall. ’19-’20 annual dry whey disappearance rebounded by 2.7% as a 15.6% YOY increase in export demand more than offset a 5.3% YOY decline in domestic disappearance.
U.S. dry whey domestic use and export figures outpaced production and import figures during Sep ’20, resulting in stocks declining to a five month low level.
WPC – Disappearance Finishes Higher for Just the Second Time in Nine Months, Finishes up 11.3% YOY
U.S. whey protein concentrate (WPC) commercial disappearance increased 11.3% on a YOY basis during Sep ’20, finishing higher for just the second time in the past nine months. WPC export demand increased 24.5% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 6.3% YOY decline in domestic demand.
’18-’19 annual WPC disappearance declined 5.8% YOY from the record high level experienced throughout the previous production season while ’19-’20 annual WPC disappearance declined by an additional 4.4%, finishing at an eight year low level.
U.S. WPC domestic use and export figures outpaced production and import figures during Sep ’20, resulting in stocks declining to a 13 month low level.
NFDM/SMP – Disappearance Remains at a Record High Seasonal Level, Finishes up 20.3% YOY
Sep ’20 U.S. nonfat dry milk (NFDM) and skim milk powder (SMP) commercial disappearance increased 20.3% on a YOY basis, reaching a record high seasonal level. The YOY increase in NFDM/SMP commercial disappearance was the fourth experienced throughout the past five months. Domestic NFDM/SMP demand increased 93.1% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 5.9% YOY decline in export demand. The YOY increase in domestic NFDM/SMP demand was just the second experienced throughout the past 11 months.
’18-’19 annual NFDM/SMP disappearance declined 2.4% YOY however ’19-’20 annual NFDM/SMP disappearance rebounded by 5.2%, reaching a record high level.
U.S. NFDM/SMP domestic use and export figures outpaced production and import figures during Sep ’20, resulting in stocks declining to a ten month low level.
On an absolute basis, Sep ’20 domestic commercial disappearance increased most significantly for NFDM/SMP, followed by cheese and butter, while declining most significantly for dry whey. International commercial disappearance increased most significantly on a YOY basis for dry whey, while NFDM/SMP export demand finished most significantly lower.
Fluid Milk – Total Milk Sales Decline to a Record Low Seasonal Level, Finish Down 5.8% YOY
U.S. fluid milk sales declined on a YOY basis for the first time in the past three months during Aug ’20, finishing down 5.8% and reaching a record low seasonal level. The YOY decline in fluid milk sales was the largest experienced throughout the past three years on a percentage basis. Sales of fat-free milk declined to the lowest monthly level on record.
’18-’19 annual total fluid milk sales declined to a record low level for the tenth consecutive year, finishing down 1.5%, as whole milk sales increased to an 11 year high but fat-free milk sales declined to the lowest figure on record, down over 50% from levels experienced ten years ago. ’19-’20 YTD total fluid milk sales have declined by an additional 0.6% on a YOY basis heading into the final month of the production season.
Fat consumed within U.S. fluid milk also declined on a YOY basis for the first time in the past three months during Aug ’20, finishing down 5.6% and reaching a record low seasonal level. ’18-’19 annual total fat consumed within fluid milk declined 0.3% on a YOY basis, reaching a four year low level, however ’19-’20 YTD figures have rebounded by 0.1% on a YOY basis heading into the final month of the production season.
- U.S. commercial disappearance for milk used in all products reached record high seasonal levels on both a milk-fat and skim-solids basis throughout Sep ’20. Domestic demand increased on both a milk-fat and skim-solids basis throughout the month.
- U.S. butter, cheese and nonfat dry milk/skim milk powder commercial disappearance all reached record high seasonal levels throughout Sep ’20 while dry whey and whey protein concentrate disappearance also finished higher on a YOY basis throughout the month.
- U.S. fluid milk sales declined on a YOY basis for the first time in the past three months during Aug ’20, finishing down 5.8% and reaching a record low seasonal level. Sales of fat-free milk declined to the lowest monthly level on record.
U.S. commercial disappearance for milk used in all products on a skim-solids basis increased on a YOY basis for the fifth consecutive month during Sep ’20, finishing up 5.8% and reaching a record high seasonal level. Domestic demand increased 6.1% on a YOY basis throughout the month while export demand finished 4.7% higher. The YOY increase in skim-solids domestic demand was the first experienced throughout the past 11 months.
’18-’19 annual commercial disappearance for milk used in all products on a skim-solids basis declined 0.6% YOY from the record high levels experienced throughout the previous production season, despite domestic demand increasing 2.5%, reaching the highest annual figure on record. ’19-’20 annual commercial disappearance for milk used in all products on a skim-solids basis rebounded by 1.6%.
Butter – Disappearance Reaches a Record High Seasonal Level, Finishes up 12.2% YOY
U.S. butter commercial disappearance increased 12.2% on a YOY basis during Sep ’20, reaching a record high seasonal level. The YOY increase in butter commercial disappearance was the first experienced throughout the past three months. Domestic butter demand increased 12.7% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 10.2% decline in export demand.
’18-’19 annual butter disappearance finished 3.5% higher YOY, reaching a record high level. Domestic disappearance increased 4.5%, also reaching the highest annual figure on record. ’19-’20 annual butter disappearance increased an additional 2.4% as a 2.6% YOY increase in domestic disappearance more than offset a 4.9% YOY decline in export demand.
U.S. butter domestic use and export figures outpaced production and import figures during Sep ’20, resulting in stocks declining seasonally to a six month low level. Butter stocks typically reach seasonal high levels throughout the summer months prior to declining seasonally until lows are reached throughout the months of November and December.
Cheese – Disappearance Reaches a Record High Seasonal Level, Finishes up 3.0% YOY
Sep ’20 U.S. cheese commercial disappearance increased 3.0% on a YOY basis throughout Sep ’20, reaching a record high seasonal level. The YOY increase in cheese commercial disappearance was the fourth experienced throughout the past five months. American cheese disappearance increased 10.2% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 1.3% YOY declined in other-than-American cheese disappearance. Domestic cheese demand increased 2.9% on a YOY basis throughout the month while export demand finished 4.2% higher.
’18-’19 annual cheese disappearance increased 2.2% to a record annual high as domestic demand increased 2.3%, also reaching the highest figure on record. ’19-’20 annual cheese disappearance declined by 0.2%, however.
U.S. cheese domestic use and export figures outpaced production and import figures during Sep ’20, resulting in stocks declining for the fifth consecutive month. Cheese stocks declined to an eight month low level, overall.
Dry Whey – Disappearance Rebounds to a Three Year Seasonal High Level, Finishes up 1.9% YOY
U.S. dry whey commercial disappearance increased 1.9% on a YOY basis during Sep ’20, reaching a three year seasonal high level. The YOY increase in dry whey commercial disappearance was the third experienced throughout the past four months. Dry whey export demand increased 52.3% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 23.8% YOY decline in domestic demand. Dry whey exports have finished higher on a YOY basis over eight consecutive months through September while domestic demand has declined over six consecutive months.
’18-’19 annual dry whey disappearance declined 9.7% YOY from the ten year high level experienced throughout the previous production season, finishing at a four year low level, overall. ’19-’20 annual dry whey disappearance rebounded by 2.7% as a 15.6% YOY increase in export demand more than offset a 5.3% YOY decline in domestic disappearance.
U.S. dry whey domestic use and export figures outpaced production and import figures during Sep ’20, resulting in stocks declining to a five month low level.
WPC – Disappearance Finishes Higher for Just the Second Time in Nine Months, Finishes up 11.3% YOY
U.S. whey protein concentrate (WPC) commercial disappearance increased 11.3% on a YOY basis during Sep ’20, finishing higher for just the second time in the past nine months. WPC export demand increased 24.5% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 6.3% YOY decline in domestic demand.
’18-’19 annual WPC disappearance declined 5.8% YOY from the record high level experienced throughout the previous production season while ’19-’20 annual WPC disappearance declined by an additional 4.4%, finishing at an eight year low level.
U.S. WPC domestic use and export figures outpaced production and import figures during Sep ’20, resulting in stocks declining to a 13 month low level.
NFDM/SMP – Disappearance Remains at a Record High Seasonal Level, Finishes up 20.3% YOY
Sep ’20 U.S. nonfat dry milk (NFDM) and skim milk powder (SMP) commercial disappearance increased 20.3% on a YOY basis, reaching a record high seasonal level. The YOY increase in NFDM/SMP commercial disappearance was the fourth experienced throughout the past five months. Domestic NFDM/SMP demand increased 93.1% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 5.9% YOY decline in export demand. The YOY increase in domestic NFDM/SMP demand was just the second experienced throughout the past 11 months.
’18-’19 annual NFDM/SMP disappearance declined 2.4% YOY however ’19-’20 annual NFDM/SMP disappearance rebounded by 5.2%, reaching a record high level.
U.S. NFDM/SMP domestic use and export figures outpaced production and import figures during Sep ’20, resulting in stocks declining to a ten month low level.
On an absolute basis, Sep ’20 domestic commercial disappearance increased most significantly for NFDM/SMP, followed by cheese and butter, while declining most significantly for dry whey. International commercial disappearance increased most significantly on a YOY basis for dry whey, while NFDM/SMP export demand finished most significantly lower.
Fluid Milk – Total Milk Sales Decline to a Record Low Seasonal Level, Finish Down 5.8% YOY
U.S. fluid milk sales declined on a YOY basis for the first time in the past three months during Aug ’20, finishing down 5.8% and reaching a record low seasonal level. The YOY decline in fluid milk sales was the largest experienced throughout the past three years on a percentage basis. Sales of fat-free milk declined to the lowest monthly level on record.
’18-’19 annual total fluid milk sales declined to a record low level for the tenth consecutive year, finishing down 1.5%, as whole milk sales increased to an 11 year high but fat-free milk sales declined to the lowest figure on record, down over 50% from levels experienced ten years ago. ’19-’20 YTD total fluid milk sales have declined by an additional 0.6% on a YOY basis heading into the final month of the production season.
Fat consumed within U.S. fluid milk also declined on a YOY basis for the first time in the past three months during Aug ’20, finishing down 5.6% and reaching a record low seasonal level. ’18-’19 annual total fat consumed within fluid milk declined 0.3% on a YOY basis, reaching a four year low level, however ’19-’20 YTD figures have rebounded by 0.1% on a YOY basis heading into the final month of the production season.