EU-28 Milk Production Update – Nov ’20
Executive Summary
EU-28 milk production figures provided by Eurostat were recently updated with values spanning through Sep ’20. Highlights from the updated report include:
The Sep ’20 YOY increase in EU-28 milk production volumes was the 19th experienced throughout the past 20 months and the largest experienced throughout the past eight months on a percentage basis. EU-28 milk production volumes declined on a YOY basis for the first time in 16 months throughout May ’20 as warm and dry conditions adversely impacted pastures, particularly throughout Eastern Europe. Weather conditions improved throughout the months of June and July however extreme heat returned throughout the month of August. More recently, autumn weather conditions have returned to favorable levels for milk production.
Sep ’20 YOY increases in production on an absolute basis were led by Italy, followed by Poland and France, while YOY declines in production on an absolute basis are expected to be led by Austria.
YOY increases in production on a percentage basis are expected to be led by Greece (+20.6%), followed by Malta (+19.3%) and Cyprus (+13.4%), while declines in production on a percentage basis are expected to be led by Austria (-1.4%), followed by Lithuania (-1.0%).
Nine of the top ten milk producing member states experienced YOY increases in milk production during Sep ’20, resulting in production within the top ten milk producing member states increasing by a weighted average of 1.2% throughout the month. The top ten EU-28 milk producing member states accounted for over 85% of the total EU-28 milk production experienced throughout the month. Production outside of the top ten milk producing member states increased by 2.9% on a YOY basis. Overall, 25 of the 28 member states experienced YOY increases in production volumes during Sep ’20.
EU-28 beef & dairy cow slaughter finished higher on a YOY basis for just the second time in the past seven months during Aug ’20 when normalizing for slaughter days, increasing by 1.8%. YOY increases in beef & dairy cow slaughter were most significant throughout Ireland, followed by the Netherlands and the United Kingdom. Significant declines in beef & dairy cow slaughter rates experienced throughout the months of April and May were likely amplified by dislocations in meat processing caused by COVID-19.
’19-’20 annual EU-28 bovine slaughter declined on a YOY basis for the first time in the past six years, finishing down 1.8% and reaching a four year low level. USDA expects the EU-28 dairy cow herd to decline 1.2% throughout the 2020 calendar year, due to feed shortages stemming from the recent droughts but noted additional culling rates, coupled with improved genetics, are expected to have a positive impact on future per cow productivity as lower producing animals are culled.
- Sep ’20 EU-28 milk production finished 1.4% higher on a YOY basis throughout Sep ’20, reaching a record high seasonal level. The YOY increase in EU-28 milk production volumes was the 19th experienced throughout the past 20 months.
- Sep ’20 YOY increases in milk production were led by Italy, followed by Poland and France. Overall, 25 of the 28 member states experienced YOY increases in milk production throughout the month.
- EU-28 beef & dairy cow slaughter rates finished higher on a YOY basis for just the second time in the past seven months during Aug ’20 when normalizing for slaughter days, increasing by 1.8%.
The Sep ’20 YOY increase in EU-28 milk production volumes was the 19th experienced throughout the past 20 months and the largest experienced throughout the past eight months on a percentage basis. EU-28 milk production volumes declined on a YOY basis for the first time in 16 months throughout May ’20 as warm and dry conditions adversely impacted pastures, particularly throughout Eastern Europe. Weather conditions improved throughout the months of June and July however extreme heat returned throughout the month of August. More recently, autumn weather conditions have returned to favorable levels for milk production.
Sep ’20 YOY increases in production on an absolute basis were led by Italy, followed by Poland and France, while YOY declines in production on an absolute basis are expected to be led by Austria.
YOY increases in production on a percentage basis are expected to be led by Greece (+20.6%), followed by Malta (+19.3%) and Cyprus (+13.4%), while declines in production on a percentage basis are expected to be led by Austria (-1.4%), followed by Lithuania (-1.0%).
Nine of the top ten milk producing member states experienced YOY increases in milk production during Sep ’20, resulting in production within the top ten milk producing member states increasing by a weighted average of 1.2% throughout the month. The top ten EU-28 milk producing member states accounted for over 85% of the total EU-28 milk production experienced throughout the month. Production outside of the top ten milk producing member states increased by 2.9% on a YOY basis. Overall, 25 of the 28 member states experienced YOY increases in production volumes during Sep ’20.
EU-28 beef & dairy cow slaughter finished higher on a YOY basis for just the second time in the past seven months during Aug ’20 when normalizing for slaughter days, increasing by 1.8%. YOY increases in beef & dairy cow slaughter were most significant throughout Ireland, followed by the Netherlands and the United Kingdom. Significant declines in beef & dairy cow slaughter rates experienced throughout the months of April and May were likely amplified by dislocations in meat processing caused by COVID-19.
’19-’20 annual EU-28 bovine slaughter declined on a YOY basis for the first time in the past six years, finishing down 1.8% and reaching a four year low level. USDA expects the EU-28 dairy cow herd to decline 1.2% throughout the 2020 calendar year, due to feed shortages stemming from the recent droughts but noted additional culling rates, coupled with improved genetics, are expected to have a positive impact on future per cow productivity as lower producing animals are culled.