U.S. Dairy Commercial Disappearance Update – Sep ’20
Executive Summary
U.S. dairy commercial disappearance figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Jul ’20. Highlights from the updated report include:
U.S. commercial disappearance for milk used in all products on a skim-solids basis also increased on a YOY basis for the third consecutive month during Jul ’20, finishing up 0.6% and reaching a record high seasonal level. Export demand increased 24.7% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 4.6% YOY decline in domestic demand. Domestic demand has declined on a skim-solids basis over nine consecutive months through July.
’18-’19 annual commercial disappearance for milk used in all products on a skim-solids basis declined 0.6% YOY from the record high levels experienced throughout the previous production season, despite domestic demand increasing 2.5%, reaching the highest annual figure on record. ’19-’20 YTD commercial disappearance for milk used in all products on a skim-solids basis has rebounded by 1.2% throughout the first ten months of the production season.
Butter – Disappearance Declines to a Three Year Seasonal Low Level, Finishes Down 5.1% YOY
U.S. butter commercial disappearance declined 5.1% on a YOY basis during Jul ’20, finishing lower for the first time in the past five months and reaching a three year seasonal low level. Domestic butter demand declined 6.5% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting an 80.6% increase in export demand.
’18-’19 annual butter disappearance finished 3.5% higher YOY, reaching a record high level. Domestic disappearance increased 4.5%, also reaching the highest annual figure on record. ’19-’20 YTD butter disappearance has increased an additional 2.4% throughout the first ten months of the production season, despite the most recent decline.
U.S. butter production and import figures outpaced domestic use and export figures during Jul ’20, resulting in stocks rebounding from the previous month but remaining slightly below recent 26 year high levels. Butter stocks typically reach seasonal high levels throughout the summer months prior to declining seasonally until lows are reached throughout the months of November and December.
Cheese – Disappearance Remains at a Record High Seasonal Level, Finishes up 1.7% YOY
Jul ’20 U.S. cheese commercial disappearance declined from the record high level experienced throughout the previous month but remained at a record high seasonal level, finishing 1.7% higher on a YOY basis. The YOY increase in cheese commercial disappearance was the third experienced in a row. American cheese disappearance increased 3.3% on a YOY basis throughout the month while other-than-American cheese disappearance finished 0.6% higher YOY. Domestic cheese demand increased 1.5% on a YOY basis throughout the month while export demand increased 5.4%.
’18-’19 annual cheese disappearance increased 2.2% to a record annual high as domestic demand increased 2.3%, also reaching the highest figure on record. ’19-’20 YTD cheese disappearance has declined by 0.4% throughout the first ten months of the production season, despite the most recent increase.
U.S. cheese domestic use and export figures outpaced production and import figures during Jul ’20, resulting in stocks declining for the third consecutive month. Cheese stocks declined to a four month low level but remained at the second highest seasonal level on record for the month of July.
Dry Whey – Disappearance Finishes 1.2% Higher YOY on Continued Strong Export Demand
U.S. dry whey commercial disappearance increased 1.2% on a YOY basis during Jul ’20, finishing higher for the second consecutive month. Dry whey export demand increased 65.1% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 25.5% YOY decline in domestic demand. Dry whey exports have finished higher on a YOY basis over six consecutive months through July while domestic demand has declined over four consecutive months.
’18-’19 annual dry whey disappearance declined 9.7% YOY from the ten year high level experienced throughout the previous production season, finishing at a four year low level, overall. Domestic disappearance increased 10.0% YOY, however, reaching a three year high level. ’19-’20 YTD dry whey disappearance has rebounded by 3.4% throughout the first ten months of the production season.
U.S. dry whey domestic use and export figures outpaced production and import figures during Jul ’20, resulting in stocks continuing to decline slightly from the 27 month high level experienced throughout the month of May.
WPC – Disappearance Increases YOY for the First Time in Seven Months, Finishes up 4.9%
U.S. whey protein concentrate (WPC) commercial disappearance increased 4.9% on a YOY basis during Jul ’20, finishing higher for the first time in the past seven months. Despite increasing on a YOY basis, WPC disappearance remained at the second lowest seasonal level experienced throughout the past eight years, finishing 5.7% below three year average seasonal levels. WPC export demand increased 30.7% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 22.5% YOY decline in domestic demand.
’18-’19 annual WPC disappearance declined 5.8% YOY from the record high level experienced throughout the previous production season. Domestic disappearance increased 31.0% YOY, however, reaching a four year high level. ’19-’20 YTD WPC disappearance has declined by an additional 5.3% on a YOY basis throughout the first ten months of the production season, despite the most recent increase.
U.S. WPC domestic use and export figures outpaced production and import figures during Jul ’20, resulting in stocks declining to a three month low level.
NFDM/SMP – Disappearance Declines on a YOY Basis for the First Time in Three Months, Down 10.9%
Jul ’20 U.S. nonfat dry milk (NFDM) and skim milk powder (SMP) commercial disappearance declined sharply from the record high level experienced throughout the previous month while finishing 10.9% lower on a YOY basis. The YOY decline in NFDM/SMP commercial disappearance was the first experienced throughout the past three months. Domestic NFDM/SMP demand declined 74.0% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 52.3% YOY increase in export demand. The YOY decline in domestic NFDM/SMP was the eighth experienced throughout the past nine months.
’18-’19 annual NFDM/SMP disappearance declined 2.4% YOY from the record high level experienced throughout the previous production season, despite finishing 10.0% higher on a YOY basis throughout the final third of the production season. Domestic disappearance increased 10.6%, however, rebounding from the 11 year low experienced throughout the previous production season. ’19-’20 YTD NFDM/SMP disappearance has rebounded by 2.9% throughout the first ten months of the production season, however, despite the most recent decline.
U.S. NFDM/SMP production and import figures outpaced domestic use and export figures during Jul ’20, resulting in stocks rebounding from the five month low level experienced throughout the previous month and reaching the second highest seasonal level on record.
On an absolute basis, Jul ’20 domestic commercial disappearance increased most significantly on a YOY basis for cheese while declining most significantly for NFDM/SMP, followed by dry whey and butter. International commercial disappearance increased most significantly on a YOY basis for NFDM/SMP, followed by dry whey.
Fluid Milk – Total Milk Sales Decline to a Record Low Seasonal Level, Finish Down 2.6% YOY
U.S. fluid milk sales declined on a YOY basis for the first time in the past three months during May ’20, finishing down 2.6% and reaching a record low seasonal level. Sales of whole milk sales reached a 13 year high seasonal level however sales of fat-free milk declined to the lowest monthly level on record. U.S. fluid milk sales declined on a YOY basis over seven consecutive months through Feb ’20, prior to increasing on a YOY basis throughout the months of March and April as consumers stocked up with the anticipation of hunkering down due to COVID-19.
’18-’19 annual total fluid milk sales declined to a record low level for the tenth consecutive year, finishing down 1.5%, as whole milk sales increased to an 11 year high but fat-free milk sales declined to the lowest figure on record, down over 50% from levels experienced ten years ago. ’19-’20 YTD total fluid milk sales have declined by an additional 0.9% on a YOY basis throughout the first two thirds of the production season.
Fat consumed within U.S. fluid milk also declined on a YOY basis for the first time in the past three months during May ’20, finishing down 1.4% and reaching a four year seasonal low level. ’18-’19 annual total fat consumed within fluid milk declined 0.3% on a YOY basis, reaching a four year low level, however ’19-’20 YTD figures have rebounded by 0.4% on a YOY basis throughout the first two thirds of the production season.
- U.S. commercial disappearance for milk used in all products remained at a record high seasonal level on both a milk-fat and skim-solids basis throughout Jul ’20. Domestic disappearance reached a record high seasonal level on a milk-fat basis but remained lower on a YOY basis for the ninth consecutive month on a skim-solids basis.
- U.S. cheese commercial disappearance remained at a record high seasonal level throughout Jul ’20 while dry whey and whey protein concentrate disappearance also finished higher on a YOY basis. Jul ’20 butter commercial disappearance declined to a three year low seasonal level, however, while nonfat dry milk /skim milk powder disappearance declined on a YOY basis for the first time in the past three months.
- U.S. fluid milk sales declined on a YOY basis for the first time in the past three months during May ’20, finishing down 2.6% and reaching a record low seasonal level. Sales of fat-free milk declined to the lowest monthly level on record.
U.S. commercial disappearance for milk used in all products on a skim-solids basis also increased on a YOY basis for the third consecutive month during Jul ’20, finishing up 0.6% and reaching a record high seasonal level. Export demand increased 24.7% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 4.6% YOY decline in domestic demand. Domestic demand has declined on a skim-solids basis over nine consecutive months through July.
’18-’19 annual commercial disappearance for milk used in all products on a skim-solids basis declined 0.6% YOY from the record high levels experienced throughout the previous production season, despite domestic demand increasing 2.5%, reaching the highest annual figure on record. ’19-’20 YTD commercial disappearance for milk used in all products on a skim-solids basis has rebounded by 1.2% throughout the first ten months of the production season.
Butter – Disappearance Declines to a Three Year Seasonal Low Level, Finishes Down 5.1% YOY
U.S. butter commercial disappearance declined 5.1% on a YOY basis during Jul ’20, finishing lower for the first time in the past five months and reaching a three year seasonal low level. Domestic butter demand declined 6.5% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting an 80.6% increase in export demand.
’18-’19 annual butter disappearance finished 3.5% higher YOY, reaching a record high level. Domestic disappearance increased 4.5%, also reaching the highest annual figure on record. ’19-’20 YTD butter disappearance has increased an additional 2.4% throughout the first ten months of the production season, despite the most recent decline.
U.S. butter production and import figures outpaced domestic use and export figures during Jul ’20, resulting in stocks rebounding from the previous month but remaining slightly below recent 26 year high levels. Butter stocks typically reach seasonal high levels throughout the summer months prior to declining seasonally until lows are reached throughout the months of November and December.
Cheese – Disappearance Remains at a Record High Seasonal Level, Finishes up 1.7% YOY
Jul ’20 U.S. cheese commercial disappearance declined from the record high level experienced throughout the previous month but remained at a record high seasonal level, finishing 1.7% higher on a YOY basis. The YOY increase in cheese commercial disappearance was the third experienced in a row. American cheese disappearance increased 3.3% on a YOY basis throughout the month while other-than-American cheese disappearance finished 0.6% higher YOY. Domestic cheese demand increased 1.5% on a YOY basis throughout the month while export demand increased 5.4%.
’18-’19 annual cheese disappearance increased 2.2% to a record annual high as domestic demand increased 2.3%, also reaching the highest figure on record. ’19-’20 YTD cheese disappearance has declined by 0.4% throughout the first ten months of the production season, despite the most recent increase.
U.S. cheese domestic use and export figures outpaced production and import figures during Jul ’20, resulting in stocks declining for the third consecutive month. Cheese stocks declined to a four month low level but remained at the second highest seasonal level on record for the month of July.
Dry Whey – Disappearance Finishes 1.2% Higher YOY on Continued Strong Export Demand
U.S. dry whey commercial disappearance increased 1.2% on a YOY basis during Jul ’20, finishing higher for the second consecutive month. Dry whey export demand increased 65.1% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 25.5% YOY decline in domestic demand. Dry whey exports have finished higher on a YOY basis over six consecutive months through July while domestic demand has declined over four consecutive months.
’18-’19 annual dry whey disappearance declined 9.7% YOY from the ten year high level experienced throughout the previous production season, finishing at a four year low level, overall. Domestic disappearance increased 10.0% YOY, however, reaching a three year high level. ’19-’20 YTD dry whey disappearance has rebounded by 3.4% throughout the first ten months of the production season.
U.S. dry whey domestic use and export figures outpaced production and import figures during Jul ’20, resulting in stocks continuing to decline slightly from the 27 month high level experienced throughout the month of May.
WPC – Disappearance Increases YOY for the First Time in Seven Months, Finishes up 4.9%
U.S. whey protein concentrate (WPC) commercial disappearance increased 4.9% on a YOY basis during Jul ’20, finishing higher for the first time in the past seven months. Despite increasing on a YOY basis, WPC disappearance remained at the second lowest seasonal level experienced throughout the past eight years, finishing 5.7% below three year average seasonal levels. WPC export demand increased 30.7% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 22.5% YOY decline in domestic demand.
’18-’19 annual WPC disappearance declined 5.8% YOY from the record high level experienced throughout the previous production season. Domestic disappearance increased 31.0% YOY, however, reaching a four year high level. ’19-’20 YTD WPC disappearance has declined by an additional 5.3% on a YOY basis throughout the first ten months of the production season, despite the most recent increase.
U.S. WPC domestic use and export figures outpaced production and import figures during Jul ’20, resulting in stocks declining to a three month low level.
NFDM/SMP – Disappearance Declines on a YOY Basis for the First Time in Three Months, Down 10.9%
Jul ’20 U.S. nonfat dry milk (NFDM) and skim milk powder (SMP) commercial disappearance declined sharply from the record high level experienced throughout the previous month while finishing 10.9% lower on a YOY basis. The YOY decline in NFDM/SMP commercial disappearance was the first experienced throughout the past three months. Domestic NFDM/SMP demand declined 74.0% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 52.3% YOY increase in export demand. The YOY decline in domestic NFDM/SMP was the eighth experienced throughout the past nine months.
’18-’19 annual NFDM/SMP disappearance declined 2.4% YOY from the record high level experienced throughout the previous production season, despite finishing 10.0% higher on a YOY basis throughout the final third of the production season. Domestic disappearance increased 10.6%, however, rebounding from the 11 year low experienced throughout the previous production season. ’19-’20 YTD NFDM/SMP disappearance has rebounded by 2.9% throughout the first ten months of the production season, however, despite the most recent decline.
U.S. NFDM/SMP production and import figures outpaced domestic use and export figures during Jul ’20, resulting in stocks rebounding from the five month low level experienced throughout the previous month and reaching the second highest seasonal level on record.
On an absolute basis, Jul ’20 domestic commercial disappearance increased most significantly on a YOY basis for cheese while declining most significantly for NFDM/SMP, followed by dry whey and butter. International commercial disappearance increased most significantly on a YOY basis for NFDM/SMP, followed by dry whey.
Fluid Milk – Total Milk Sales Decline to a Record Low Seasonal Level, Finish Down 2.6% YOY
U.S. fluid milk sales declined on a YOY basis for the first time in the past three months during May ’20, finishing down 2.6% and reaching a record low seasonal level. Sales of whole milk sales reached a 13 year high seasonal level however sales of fat-free milk declined to the lowest monthly level on record. U.S. fluid milk sales declined on a YOY basis over seven consecutive months through Feb ’20, prior to increasing on a YOY basis throughout the months of March and April as consumers stocked up with the anticipation of hunkering down due to COVID-19.
’18-’19 annual total fluid milk sales declined to a record low level for the tenth consecutive year, finishing down 1.5%, as whole milk sales increased to an 11 year high but fat-free milk sales declined to the lowest figure on record, down over 50% from levels experienced ten years ago. ’19-’20 YTD total fluid milk sales have declined by an additional 0.9% on a YOY basis throughout the first two thirds of the production season.
Fat consumed within U.S. fluid milk also declined on a YOY basis for the first time in the past three months during May ’20, finishing down 1.4% and reaching a four year seasonal low level. ’18-’19 annual total fat consumed within fluid milk declined 0.3% on a YOY basis, reaching a four year low level, however ’19-’20 YTD figures have rebounded by 0.4% on a YOY basis throughout the first two thirds of the production season.