EU-28 Milk Production Update – Sep ’20
Executive Summary
EU-28 milk production figures provided by Eurostat were recently updated with values spanning through Jul ’20. Highlights from the updated report include:
The Jul ’20 YOY increase in EU-28 milk production volumes was the 17th experienced throughout the past 18 months and the largest experienced throughout the past 16 months on a percentage basis. EU-28 milk production volumes declined on a YOY basis for the first time in 16 months throughout May ’20 as warm and dry conditions adversely impacted pastures, particularly throughout Eastern Europe. Weather conditions improved throughout the months of June and July however extreme heat returned throughout the month of August.
Jul ’20 YOY increases in production on an absolute basis were led by France, followed by Ireland, while YOY declines in production on an absolute basis were led by Italy. The Italian dairy industry has been particularly affected by COVID-19, resulting in the largest declines experienced throughout the EU-28 over three consecutive months through July.
YOY increases in production on a percentage basis were led by Cyprus (+26.6%), followed by Luxembourg (+8.4%) and Estonia (+5.0%), while declines in production on a percentage basis were most significant within Italy (-1.4%).
Eight of the top ten milk producing member states experienced YOY increases in milk production during Jul ’20, resulting in production within the top ten milk producing member states increasing by a weighted average of 1.4% throughout the month. The top ten EU-28 milk producing member states accounted for over 85% of the total EU-28 milk production experienced throughout the month. Overall, 24 of the 28 member states experienced YOY increases in production volumes during Jul ’20.
EU-28 beef & dairy cow slaughter finished higher on a YOY basis for the first time in the past five months during Jun ’20 when normalizing for slaughter days, increasing by 3.4%. The YOY increase in EU-28 beef & dairy cow slaughter figures was the largest experienced throughout the past 23 months on a percentage basis. YOY increases in beef & dairy cow slaughter were most significant throughout France, followed by Italy and Germany. Significant declines in beef & dairy cow slaughter rates experienced throughout the months of April and May were likely amplified by dislocations in meat processing caused by COVID-19.
’19-’20 annual EU-28 bovine slaughter declined on a YOY basis for the first time in the past six years, finishing down 1.8% and reaching a four year low level. USDA expects the EU-28 dairy cow herd to decline 1.2% throughout the 2020 calendar year, due to feed shortages stemming from the recent droughts but noted additional culling rates, coupled with improved genetics, are expected to have a positive impact on future per cow productivity as lower producing animals are culled.
- Jul ’20 EU-28 milk production finished 1.6% higher on a YOY basis throughout Jul ’20, reaching a record high seasonal level. The YOY increase in EU-28 milk production volumes was the 17th experienced throughout the past 18 months and the largest experienced throughout the past 16 months on a percentage basis.
- Jul ’20 YOY increases in milk production were led by France, followed by Ireland, while YOY declines in milk production were led by Italy. Overall, 24 of the 28 member states experienced YOY increases in milk production throughout the month.
- EU-28 beef & dairy cow slaughter rates finished higher on a YOY basis for the first time in the past five months months during Jun ’20 when normalizing for slaughter days, increasing by 3.4%. The YOY increase in EU-28 beef & dairy cow slaughter rates was the largest experienced throughout the past 23 months on a percentage basis.
The Jul ’20 YOY increase in EU-28 milk production volumes was the 17th experienced throughout the past 18 months and the largest experienced throughout the past 16 months on a percentage basis. EU-28 milk production volumes declined on a YOY basis for the first time in 16 months throughout May ’20 as warm and dry conditions adversely impacted pastures, particularly throughout Eastern Europe. Weather conditions improved throughout the months of June and July however extreme heat returned throughout the month of August.
Jul ’20 YOY increases in production on an absolute basis were led by France, followed by Ireland, while YOY declines in production on an absolute basis were led by Italy. The Italian dairy industry has been particularly affected by COVID-19, resulting in the largest declines experienced throughout the EU-28 over three consecutive months through July.
YOY increases in production on a percentage basis were led by Cyprus (+26.6%), followed by Luxembourg (+8.4%) and Estonia (+5.0%), while declines in production on a percentage basis were most significant within Italy (-1.4%).
Eight of the top ten milk producing member states experienced YOY increases in milk production during Jul ’20, resulting in production within the top ten milk producing member states increasing by a weighted average of 1.4% throughout the month. The top ten EU-28 milk producing member states accounted for over 85% of the total EU-28 milk production experienced throughout the month. Overall, 24 of the 28 member states experienced YOY increases in production volumes during Jul ’20.
EU-28 beef & dairy cow slaughter finished higher on a YOY basis for the first time in the past five months during Jun ’20 when normalizing for slaughter days, increasing by 3.4%. The YOY increase in EU-28 beef & dairy cow slaughter figures was the largest experienced throughout the past 23 months on a percentage basis. YOY increases in beef & dairy cow slaughter were most significant throughout France, followed by Italy and Germany. Significant declines in beef & dairy cow slaughter rates experienced throughout the months of April and May were likely amplified by dislocations in meat processing caused by COVID-19.
’19-’20 annual EU-28 bovine slaughter declined on a YOY basis for the first time in the past six years, finishing down 1.8% and reaching a four year low level. USDA expects the EU-28 dairy cow herd to decline 1.2% throughout the 2020 calendar year, due to feed shortages stemming from the recent droughts but noted additional culling rates, coupled with improved genetics, are expected to have a positive impact on future per cow productivity as lower producing animals are culled.