U.S. Dairy Exports Update – Aug ’20
Executive Summary
U.S. dairy export figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Jun ’20. Highlights from the updated report include:
Saudi Arabia and Canada were the top destinations for U.S. butterfat export volumes throughout Jun ’20, combining to account for over half of the total export volumes.
Butterfat export volumes destined to Saudi Arabia increased most significantly on a YOY basis throughout the month, while butterfat export volumes destined to Mexico and Japan finished most significantly lower.
Canada and Mexico have historically been the largest importers of U.S. butterfat, accounting for 60% of the total U.S. export volumes experienced throughout the past five years. U.S. butterfat export volumes destined to Canada and Mexico have declined by 20.3% and 71.1%, respectively, on a YOY basis throughout the past 12 months, compared to a 26.2% YOY decline in U.S. butterfat export volumes destined to all other countries.
Cheese – Export Volumes Reach a Record High Level Despite Lower Cheddar Volumes
Jun ’20 U.S. cheese export volumes increased 29.0% on a YOY basis, reaching a record high level. Other-than-cheddar cheese export volumes increased 36.9% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 5.6% YOY decline in cheddar cheese export volumes. The YOY decline in cheddar cheese export volumes was the sixth experienced throughout the past seven months.
’18-’19 annual cheese export volumes increased 2.3% on a YOY basis, reaching a five year high level. ’19-’20 YTD cheese export volumes have increased an additional 0.5% on a YOY basis throughout the first three quarters of the production season.
Mexico and South Korea were the top destinations for U.S. cheese export volumes throughout Jun ’20, combining to account for over half of the total export volumes.
YOY increases in cheese export volumes were led by product destined to Mexico, followed by volumes destined to South Korea, while volumes destined to the United Arab Emirates finished most significantly lower on a YOY basis throughout the month.
Mexico and South Korea have historically been the largest importers of U.S. cheese, accounting for nearly 45% of total U.S. cheese export volumes throughout the past five years. Combined U.S. cheese export volumes destined to Mexico and South Korea have increased 6.8% on a YOY basis throughout the past 12 months.
Whey – Dry Whey Volumes Higher, Whey Protein Concentrate Volumes Lower, Throughout June
U.S. dry whey export volumes increased on a YOY basis for the fifth consecutive month during Jun ’20, finishing up 42.4% and reaching a 22 month high level, overall. Dry whey export volumes had finished lower on a YOY basis over 17 consecutive months prior to the five most recently experienced YOY increases. The Jun ’20 YOY increase in dry whey export volumes was the largest experienced throughout the past three years on a percentage basis.
’18-’19 annual dry whey export volumes declined 29.8% from the four year high level experienced throughout the previous production season, finishing at a 15 year low level. ’19-’20 YTD dry whey export volumes have rebounded by 3.7% on a YOY basis throughout the first three quarters of the production season, however.
U.S. whey protein concentrate (WPC) export volumes declined 19.6% on a YOY basis during Jun ’20, finishing lower on a YOY basis for just the second time in the past nine months. WPC export volumes had reached an 11 month high level throughout the month of May, prior to declining throughout Jun ’20.
’18-’19 annual WPC export volumes declined 29.1% from the record high level experienced throughout the previous production season, finishing at a four year low level. ’19-’20 YTD WPC export volumes have rebounded by 17.1% on a YOY basis throughout the first three quarters of the production season, despite the most recent decline.
China was the top destination for U.S. whey export volumes throughout Jun ’20, accounting for over a 40% of the total export volumes. China, New Zealand and Mexico combined to account for over half of the total Jun ’20 U.S. whey exports volumes.
YOY increases in whey export volumes continue to be led by product destined to China, while volumes destined to Mexico finished most significantly lower on a YOY basis throughout the month.
China has historically been the largest importer of U.S. whey products, accounting for over a third of the total U.S. whey export volumes throughout the past five years. U.S. whey export volumes destined to China have increased 6.1% YOY throughout the past 12 months, more than offsetting a 0.9% YOY decline in whey export volumes destined to all other countries over the same period. Chinese whey demand has rebounded of late from reduced levels stemming from weaker feed demand due to African swine fever.
NFDM/SMP – Export Volumes Remain at a Record High Seasonal Level, Finish up 77.3% YOY
Jun ’20 U.S. export volumes of nonfat dry milk (NFDM) and skim milk powder (SMP) declined slightly from the record high level experienced throughout the previous month but remained 77.3% higher on a YOY basis, reaching a record high seasonal level. The YOY increase in NFDM/SMP export volumes was the ninth experienced throughout the past ten months and the largest experienced throughout the past nine years on a percentage basis.
’18-’19 annual NFDM/SMP exports declined 9.4% from the record high level experienced throughout the previous production season but remained at the second highest annual figure on record. ’19-’20 YTD NFDM/SMP export volumes have rebounded by 26.0% on a YOY basis throughout the first three quarters of the production season and are on pace to reach a record high level.
Mexico was the top destination for U.S. NFDM/SMP export volumes throughout Jun ’20, accounting for a third of the total export volumes. Mexico, the Philippines and Indonesia combined to account for over half of the total Jun ’20 U.S. NFDM/SMP exports volumes.
YOY increases in NFDM/SMP export volumes were led by product destined to Malaysia, followed by volumes destined to China and Egypt, while export volumes destined to the Dominican Republic finished most significantly lower on a YOY basis throughout the month.
Mexico has historically been the largest importer of U.S. NFDM/SMP, accounting for over 45% of all U.S. NFDM/SMP export volumes throughout the past five years. U.S. NFDM/SMP export volumes destined to Mexico have declined 11.0% on a YOY basis throughout the past 12 months while volumes destined to all other countries have increased 52.1% YOY over the same period.
Export Volumes Normalized to Production
U.S. butter, cheese, dry whey and NFDM/SMP export volumes as a percentage of production all finished above previous year figures during Jun ’20. NFDM/SMP export volumes as a percentage of production increased most significantly from the previous year, followed by dry whey export volumes.
Overall, U.S. dairy export volumes were estimated to be equivalent to approximately 17.7% of total U.S. milk-solids production during Jun ’20 while dairy import volumes were estimated to be equivalent to approximately 3.1% of total U.S. milk-solids production. Jun ’20 net dairy trade was estimated to increase 43.0% on a YOY basis, finishing higher for the eighth consecutive month. The Jun ’20 YOY increase in net dairy trade was the largest experienced throughout the past six years. Net dairy trade had finished lower on a YOY basis over 12 consecutive months prior to increasing YOY over the eight most recent months.
U.S. dairy exports as a percentage of milk-solids production increased on a YOY basis for the eighth consecutive month during Jun ’20, finishing up 26.4% and reaching a record high seasonal level. ’18-’19 annual dairy exports as a percentage of milk-solids production declined 12.7% from the record high level experienced throughout the previous production season, finishing at a three year low, however ’19-’20 YTD figures have rebounded by 11.3% on a YOY basis throughout the first three quarters of the production season.
Jun ’20 U.S. dairy imports as a percentage of milk-solids production increased seasonally from the previous month but remained 15.0% lower on a YOY basis. The YOY decline in dairy imports as a percentage of milk-solids production was the fourth experienced in a row. ’18-’19 annual dairy imports as a percentage of milk-solids production rebounded 12.7% from the four year low level experienced throughout the previous production season, reaching a three year high, however ’19-’20 YTD figures have declined 5.3% on a YOY basis throughout the first three quarters of the production season.
Net trade of U.S. NFDM/SMP continued to outpace that of butter, cheese and dry whey as import volumes remain minimal. Net cheese trade volumes exceeded net dry whey trade volumes for the sixth consecutive month during Jun ’20 while the U.S. finished as a net importer of butter for the 26th consecutive month.
- U.S. butterfat export volumes finished 9.6% higher on a YOY basis throughout Jun ’20, reaching a 16 month high level, however net butter trade reached an 18 year low level as imports continued to exceed export volumes.
- U.S. cheese export volumes increased 29.0% on a YOY basis throughout Jun ’20, reaching a record high level. Cheddar cheese export volumes remained lower on a YOY basis for the sixth time in the past seven months, however, declining by 5.6%. U.S. dry whey export volumes increased 42.4% on a YOY basis during Jun ’20, reaching a 22 month high level, however whey protein concentrate export volumes declined 19.6% YOY throughout the month.
- U.S. nonfat dry milk/skim milk powder export volumes declined slightly from the record high level experienced throughout the previous month but remained higher on a YOY basis for the fourth consecutive month, finishing up 77.3% and reaching a record high seasonal level for the month of June.
Saudi Arabia and Canada were the top destinations for U.S. butterfat export volumes throughout Jun ’20, combining to account for over half of the total export volumes.
Butterfat export volumes destined to Saudi Arabia increased most significantly on a YOY basis throughout the month, while butterfat export volumes destined to Mexico and Japan finished most significantly lower.
Canada and Mexico have historically been the largest importers of U.S. butterfat, accounting for 60% of the total U.S. export volumes experienced throughout the past five years. U.S. butterfat export volumes destined to Canada and Mexico have declined by 20.3% and 71.1%, respectively, on a YOY basis throughout the past 12 months, compared to a 26.2% YOY decline in U.S. butterfat export volumes destined to all other countries.
Cheese – Export Volumes Reach a Record High Level Despite Lower Cheddar Volumes
Jun ’20 U.S. cheese export volumes increased 29.0% on a YOY basis, reaching a record high level. Other-than-cheddar cheese export volumes increased 36.9% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 5.6% YOY decline in cheddar cheese export volumes. The YOY decline in cheddar cheese export volumes was the sixth experienced throughout the past seven months.
’18-’19 annual cheese export volumes increased 2.3% on a YOY basis, reaching a five year high level. ’19-’20 YTD cheese export volumes have increased an additional 0.5% on a YOY basis throughout the first three quarters of the production season.
Mexico and South Korea were the top destinations for U.S. cheese export volumes throughout Jun ’20, combining to account for over half of the total export volumes.
YOY increases in cheese export volumes were led by product destined to Mexico, followed by volumes destined to South Korea, while volumes destined to the United Arab Emirates finished most significantly lower on a YOY basis throughout the month.
Mexico and South Korea have historically been the largest importers of U.S. cheese, accounting for nearly 45% of total U.S. cheese export volumes throughout the past five years. Combined U.S. cheese export volumes destined to Mexico and South Korea have increased 6.8% on a YOY basis throughout the past 12 months.
Whey – Dry Whey Volumes Higher, Whey Protein Concentrate Volumes Lower, Throughout June
U.S. dry whey export volumes increased on a YOY basis for the fifth consecutive month during Jun ’20, finishing up 42.4% and reaching a 22 month high level, overall. Dry whey export volumes had finished lower on a YOY basis over 17 consecutive months prior to the five most recently experienced YOY increases. The Jun ’20 YOY increase in dry whey export volumes was the largest experienced throughout the past three years on a percentage basis.
’18-’19 annual dry whey export volumes declined 29.8% from the four year high level experienced throughout the previous production season, finishing at a 15 year low level. ’19-’20 YTD dry whey export volumes have rebounded by 3.7% on a YOY basis throughout the first three quarters of the production season, however.
U.S. whey protein concentrate (WPC) export volumes declined 19.6% on a YOY basis during Jun ’20, finishing lower on a YOY basis for just the second time in the past nine months. WPC export volumes had reached an 11 month high level throughout the month of May, prior to declining throughout Jun ’20.
’18-’19 annual WPC export volumes declined 29.1% from the record high level experienced throughout the previous production season, finishing at a four year low level. ’19-’20 YTD WPC export volumes have rebounded by 17.1% on a YOY basis throughout the first three quarters of the production season, despite the most recent decline.
China was the top destination for U.S. whey export volumes throughout Jun ’20, accounting for over a 40% of the total export volumes. China, New Zealand and Mexico combined to account for over half of the total Jun ’20 U.S. whey exports volumes.
YOY increases in whey export volumes continue to be led by product destined to China, while volumes destined to Mexico finished most significantly lower on a YOY basis throughout the month.
China has historically been the largest importer of U.S. whey products, accounting for over a third of the total U.S. whey export volumes throughout the past five years. U.S. whey export volumes destined to China have increased 6.1% YOY throughout the past 12 months, more than offsetting a 0.9% YOY decline in whey export volumes destined to all other countries over the same period. Chinese whey demand has rebounded of late from reduced levels stemming from weaker feed demand due to African swine fever.
NFDM/SMP – Export Volumes Remain at a Record High Seasonal Level, Finish up 77.3% YOY
Jun ’20 U.S. export volumes of nonfat dry milk (NFDM) and skim milk powder (SMP) declined slightly from the record high level experienced throughout the previous month but remained 77.3% higher on a YOY basis, reaching a record high seasonal level. The YOY increase in NFDM/SMP export volumes was the ninth experienced throughout the past ten months and the largest experienced throughout the past nine years on a percentage basis.
’18-’19 annual NFDM/SMP exports declined 9.4% from the record high level experienced throughout the previous production season but remained at the second highest annual figure on record. ’19-’20 YTD NFDM/SMP export volumes have rebounded by 26.0% on a YOY basis throughout the first three quarters of the production season and are on pace to reach a record high level.
Mexico was the top destination for U.S. NFDM/SMP export volumes throughout Jun ’20, accounting for a third of the total export volumes. Mexico, the Philippines and Indonesia combined to account for over half of the total Jun ’20 U.S. NFDM/SMP exports volumes.
YOY increases in NFDM/SMP export volumes were led by product destined to Malaysia, followed by volumes destined to China and Egypt, while export volumes destined to the Dominican Republic finished most significantly lower on a YOY basis throughout the month.
Mexico has historically been the largest importer of U.S. NFDM/SMP, accounting for over 45% of all U.S. NFDM/SMP export volumes throughout the past five years. U.S. NFDM/SMP export volumes destined to Mexico have declined 11.0% on a YOY basis throughout the past 12 months while volumes destined to all other countries have increased 52.1% YOY over the same period.
Export Volumes Normalized to Production
U.S. butter, cheese, dry whey and NFDM/SMP export volumes as a percentage of production all finished above previous year figures during Jun ’20. NFDM/SMP export volumes as a percentage of production increased most significantly from the previous year, followed by dry whey export volumes.
Overall, U.S. dairy export volumes were estimated to be equivalent to approximately 17.7% of total U.S. milk-solids production during Jun ’20 while dairy import volumes were estimated to be equivalent to approximately 3.1% of total U.S. milk-solids production. Jun ’20 net dairy trade was estimated to increase 43.0% on a YOY basis, finishing higher for the eighth consecutive month. The Jun ’20 YOY increase in net dairy trade was the largest experienced throughout the past six years. Net dairy trade had finished lower on a YOY basis over 12 consecutive months prior to increasing YOY over the eight most recent months.
U.S. dairy exports as a percentage of milk-solids production increased on a YOY basis for the eighth consecutive month during Jun ’20, finishing up 26.4% and reaching a record high seasonal level. ’18-’19 annual dairy exports as a percentage of milk-solids production declined 12.7% from the record high level experienced throughout the previous production season, finishing at a three year low, however ’19-’20 YTD figures have rebounded by 11.3% on a YOY basis throughout the first three quarters of the production season.
Jun ’20 U.S. dairy imports as a percentage of milk-solids production increased seasonally from the previous month but remained 15.0% lower on a YOY basis. The YOY decline in dairy imports as a percentage of milk-solids production was the fourth experienced in a row. ’18-’19 annual dairy imports as a percentage of milk-solids production rebounded 12.7% from the four year low level experienced throughout the previous production season, reaching a three year high, however ’19-’20 YTD figures have declined 5.3% on a YOY basis throughout the first three quarters of the production season.
Net trade of U.S. NFDM/SMP continued to outpace that of butter, cheese and dry whey as import volumes remain minimal. Net cheese trade volumes exceeded net dry whey trade volumes for the sixth consecutive month during Jun ’20 while the U.S. finished as a net importer of butter for the 26th consecutive month.