U.S. Dairy Cold Storage Update – Jul ’20
Executive Summary
U.S. cold storage figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Jun ’20. Highlights from the updated report include:
According to the USDA, Jun ’20 U.S. butter stocks declined seasonally from the 26 year high level experienced throughout the previous month but remained 10.8% higher on a YOY basis, finishing higher on a YOY basis for the 12th consecutive month. Butter stocks reached a 27 year high seasonal level for the month of July. The MOM decline in butter stocks of 14.1 million pounds, or 3.8%, was greater than the ten year average May – June seasonal decline of 2.5 million pounds, or 0.8%. Butter stocks typically reach seasonal high levels throughout the months of May and June prior to declining throughout the second half of the calendar year.
On a days of usage basis, Jun ’20 U.S. butter stocks also finished higher YOY. When assuming 12-month rolling average YOY changes in usage rates and known stock values for the month of June, butter stocks on a days of usage basis increased YOY for the fifth time in the past six months, finishing up 9.4%.
Cheese – Stocks Decline Contraseasonally but Remain at a Record High Seasonal Level, up 2.6% YOY
Jun ’20 U.S. cheese stocks declined contraseasonally from the previous month but remained 2.6% above previous year volumes, reaching a record high seasonal level. The YOY increase in cheese stocks was the third experienced in a row. American cheese stocks increased 1.1% on a YOY basis throughout the month while other-than-American cheese stocks finished 4.5% higher YOY. The MOM decline in cheese stocks of 38.1 million pounds, or 2.6%, was a contraseasonal move when compared to the ten year average May – June seasonal build of 6.6 million pounds, or 0.6%. The contraseasonal decline in cheese stocks was the second experienced in a row.
On a days of usage basis, Jun ’20 U.S. cheese stocks also finished higher YOY. When assuming 12-month rolling average YOY changes in usage rates and known stock values for the month of June, cheese stocks on a days of usage basis increased YOY for the fifth time in the past six months, finishing up 3.5%.
Combined Dairy Product Stocks – Jun ’20 Stocks Projected to Remain at a Record High Seasonal Level
May ’20 combined stocks of butter, cheese, dry whey and nonfat dry milk declined from the record high level experienced throughout the previous month but remained 9.9% higher on a YOY basis, reaching a record high seasonal level. The YOY increase in combined dairy product stocks was the fourth experienced in a row.
Combined stocks of butter, cheese, dry whey and nonfat dry milk are projected to remain at a record high seasonal level throughout Jun ’20 when using actual butter and cheese stock figures and previous month YOY changes in dry whey and nonfat dry milk stocks, increasing by an estimated 7.0%. Jun ’20 dry whey and nonfat dry milk stock figures are scheduled to be available Aug 4th.
- U.S. butter stocks declined seasonally from the 26 year high level experienced throughout the previous month but remained higher on a YOY basis for the 12th consecutive month during Jun ’20, finishing up 10.8% and reaching a 27 year high seasonal level for the month of June.
- Jun ’20 U.S. cheese stocks declined contraseasonally for the second consecutive month but remained 2.6% higher on a YOY basis, reaching a record high seasonal level.
According to the USDA, Jun ’20 U.S. butter stocks declined seasonally from the 26 year high level experienced throughout the previous month but remained 10.8% higher on a YOY basis, finishing higher on a YOY basis for the 12th consecutive month. Butter stocks reached a 27 year high seasonal level for the month of July. The MOM decline in butter stocks of 14.1 million pounds, or 3.8%, was greater than the ten year average May – June seasonal decline of 2.5 million pounds, or 0.8%. Butter stocks typically reach seasonal high levels throughout the months of May and June prior to declining throughout the second half of the calendar year.
On a days of usage basis, Jun ’20 U.S. butter stocks also finished higher YOY. When assuming 12-month rolling average YOY changes in usage rates and known stock values for the month of June, butter stocks on a days of usage basis increased YOY for the fifth time in the past six months, finishing up 9.4%.
Cheese – Stocks Decline Contraseasonally but Remain at a Record High Seasonal Level, up 2.6% YOY
Jun ’20 U.S. cheese stocks declined contraseasonally from the previous month but remained 2.6% above previous year volumes, reaching a record high seasonal level. The YOY increase in cheese stocks was the third experienced in a row. American cheese stocks increased 1.1% on a YOY basis throughout the month while other-than-American cheese stocks finished 4.5% higher YOY. The MOM decline in cheese stocks of 38.1 million pounds, or 2.6%, was a contraseasonal move when compared to the ten year average May – June seasonal build of 6.6 million pounds, or 0.6%. The contraseasonal decline in cheese stocks was the second experienced in a row.
On a days of usage basis, Jun ’20 U.S. cheese stocks also finished higher YOY. When assuming 12-month rolling average YOY changes in usage rates and known stock values for the month of June, cheese stocks on a days of usage basis increased YOY for the fifth time in the past six months, finishing up 3.5%.
Combined Dairy Product Stocks – Jun ’20 Stocks Projected to Remain at a Record High Seasonal Level
May ’20 combined stocks of butter, cheese, dry whey and nonfat dry milk declined from the record high level experienced throughout the previous month but remained 9.9% higher on a YOY basis, reaching a record high seasonal level. The YOY increase in combined dairy product stocks was the fourth experienced in a row.
Combined stocks of butter, cheese, dry whey and nonfat dry milk are projected to remain at a record high seasonal level throughout Jun ’20 when using actual butter and cheese stock figures and previous month YOY changes in dry whey and nonfat dry milk stocks, increasing by an estimated 7.0%. Jun ’20 dry whey and nonfat dry milk stock figures are scheduled to be available Aug 4th.