U.S. Dairy Commercial Disappearance Update – Jul ’20
Executive Summary
U.S. dairy commercial disappearance figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through May ’20. Highlights from the updated report include:
U.S. commercial disappearance for milk used in all products on a skim-solids basis increased on a YOY basis for the second time in the past three months during May ’20, finishing up 1.3% and reaching a record high seasonal level. Export demand increased 21.1% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 3.3% YOY decline in domestic demand.
’18-’19 annual commercial disappearance for milk used in all products on a skim-solids basis declined 0.6% YOY from the record high levels experienced throughout the previous production season, despite domestic demand increasing 2.5%, reaching the highest annual figure on record. ’19-’20 YTD commercial disappearance for milk used in all products on a skim-solids basis has rebounded by 0.9% throughout the first two thirds of the production season.
Butter – Disappearance Reaches a Record High Seasonal Level, Finishes up 16.6% YOY
U.S. butter commercial disappearance increased 16.6% on a YOY basis during May ’20, finishing higher for the third consecutive month and reaching a record high seasonal level. Domestic butter demand increased 16.9% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 1.1% YOY decline in export demand.
’18-’19 annual butter disappearance finished 3.5% higher YOY, reaching a record high level. Domestic disappearance increased 4.5%, also reaching the highest annual figure on record. ’19-’20 YTD butter disappearance has increased an additional 1.3% throughout the first two thirds of the production season.
U.S. butter production and import figures outpaced domestic use and export figures during May ’20, resulting in stocks increasing to a 26 year high level. Butter stocks typically reach seasonal low levels throughout the months of November and December, prior to increasing throughout the first two thirds of the calendar year.
Cheese – Disappearance Declines 0.2% YOY but Remains at the Second Highest Seasonal Level
U.S. cheese commercial disappearance declined 0.2% on a YOY basis during May ’20, finishing lower for the sixth time in the past seven months but remaining at the second highest seasonal level on record. Other-than-American cheese disappearance declined 2.3% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 3.2% YOY increase in American cheese disappearance. Domestic cheese demand declined 0.7% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 7.9% YOY increase in export demand.
’18-’19 annual cheese disappearance increased 2.2% to a record annual high as domestic demand increased 2.2%, also reaching the highest figure on record. ’19-’20 YTD cheese disappearance has declined by 1.6% throughout the first two thirds of the production season, however.
U.S. cheese domestic use and export figures outpaced production and import figures during May ’20, resulting in stocks declining from the record high level experienced throughout the previous month but remaining at a record high seasonal level.
Dry Whey – Disappearance Declines to a Six Year Low Seasonal Level, Finishes Down 13.7% YOY
U.S. dry whey commercial disappearance declined 13.7% on a YOY basis during May ’20, finishing lower for the third time in the past four months and reaching a six year low seasonal level. Domestic dry whey demand declined 32.7% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 26.4% YOY increase in export demand.
’18-’19 annual dry whey disappearance declined 9.7% YOY from the ten year high level experienced throughout the previous production season, finishing at a four year low level, overall. Domestic disappearance increased 9.0% YOY, however, reaching a three year high level. ’19-’20 YTD dry whey disappearance has rebounded by 3.3% throughout the first two thirds of the production season, despite the most recent decline.
U.S. dry whey production and import figures outpaced domestic use and export figures during May ’20, resulting in stocks increasing to a 27 month high level.
WPC – Disappearance Declines to an Eight Year Low Seasonal Level, Finishes Down 12.7% YOY
U.S. whey protein concentrate (WPC) commercial disappearance declined 12.7% on a YOY basis during May ’20, finishing lower for the 14th time in the past 16 months and reaching an eight year low seasonal level. Domestic WPC demand declined 37.3% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 5.6% YOY increase in export demand.
’18-’19 annual WPC disappearance declined 5.8% YOY from the record high level experienced throughout the previous production season. Domestic disappearance increased 33.3% YOY, however, reaching a four year high level. ’19-’20 YTD WPC disappearance has declined by an additional 5.8% on a YOY basis throughout the first two thirds of the production season.
U.S. WPC production and import figures outpaced domestic use and export figures during May ’20, resulting in stocks rebounding from the eight month low level experienced throughout the previous month.
NFDM/SMP – Disappearance Reaches a Record High Seasonal Level, Finishes up 33.5% YOY
U.S. nonfat dry milk (NFDM) and skim milk powder (SMP) commercial disappearance increased 33.5% on a YOY basis during May ’20, finishing higher for the first time in the past five months and reaching a record high seasonal level. NFDM/SMP commercial disappearance reached the second highest monthly level on record. Domestic NFDM/SMP demand increased 58.3% on a YOY basis throughout the month, while export demand increased 24.6%.
’18-’19 annual NFDM/SMP disappearance declined 2.4% YOY from the record high level experienced throughout the previous production season, despite finishing 10.0% higher on a YOY basis throughout the final third of the production season. Domestic disappearance increased 10.9%, however, rebounding from the 11 year low experienced throughout the previous production season. ’19-’20 YTD NFDM/SMP disappearance has rebounded by 1.3% throughout the first two thirds of the production season, however.
U.S. NFDM/SMP domestic use and export figures outpaced production and import figures during May ’20, resulting in stocks declining from the record high level experienced throughout the previous month but remaining at a record high seasonal level.
On an absolute basis, May ’20 domestic commercial disappearance increased most significantly on a YOY basis for NFDM/SMP, followed by butter, while declining most significantly for dry whey. International commercial disappearance increased most significantly on a YOY basis for NFDM/SMP.
Fluid Milk – Total Milk Sales Decline to a Record Low Seasonal Level, Finish Down 2.6% YOY
U.S. fluid milk sales declined on a YOY basis for the first time in the past three months during May ’20, finishing down 2.6% and reaching a record low seasonal level. Sales of whole milk sales reached a 13 year high seasonal level however sales of fat-free milk declined to the lowest monthly level on record. U.S. fluid milk sales declined on a YOY basis over seven consecutive months through Feb ’20, prior to increasing on a YOY basis throughout the months of March and April as consumers stocked up with the anticipation of hunkering down due to COVID-19.
’18-’19 annual total fluid milk sales declined to a record low level for the tenth consecutive year, finishing down 1.5%, as whole milk sales increased to an 11 year high but fat-free milk sales declined to the lowest figure on record, down over 50% from levels experienced ten years ago. ’19-’20 YTD total fluid milk sales have declined by an additional 0.9% on a YOY basis throughout the first two thirds of the production season.
Fat consumed within U.S. fluid milk also declined on a YOY basis for the first time in the past three months during May ’20, finishing down 1.4% and reaching a four year seasonal low level. ’18-’19 annual total fat consumed within fluid milk declined 0.3% on a YOY basis, reaching a four year low level, however ’19-’20 YTD figures have rebounded by 0.4% on a YOY basis throughout the first two thirds of the production season.
- U.S. commercial disappearance for milk used in all products declined 0.2% YOY on a milk-fat basis but finished 1.3% higher YOY on a skim-solids basis during May ’20. Disappearance on a milk-fat basis remained at the second highest seasonal level on record while disappearance on a skim-solids basis reached a record high seasonal level.
- Butter and nonfat dry milk/skim milk powder commercial disappearance each increased to record high seasonal levels throughout the month of May ’20 while cheese disappearance declined from the previous year but remained at the second highest seasonal level on record. May ’20 dry whey and whey protein concentrate commercial disappearance declined to six and eight year seasonal low levels, respectively, however.
- U.S. fluid milk sales declined on a YOY basis for the first time in the past three months during May ’20, finishing down 2.6% and reaching a record low seasonal level. Sales of fat-free milk declined to the lowest monthly level on record.
U.S. commercial disappearance for milk used in all products on a skim-solids basis increased on a YOY basis for the second time in the past three months during May ’20, finishing up 1.3% and reaching a record high seasonal level. Export demand increased 21.1% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 3.3% YOY decline in domestic demand.
’18-’19 annual commercial disappearance for milk used in all products on a skim-solids basis declined 0.6% YOY from the record high levels experienced throughout the previous production season, despite domestic demand increasing 2.5%, reaching the highest annual figure on record. ’19-’20 YTD commercial disappearance for milk used in all products on a skim-solids basis has rebounded by 0.9% throughout the first two thirds of the production season.
Butter – Disappearance Reaches a Record High Seasonal Level, Finishes up 16.6% YOY
U.S. butter commercial disappearance increased 16.6% on a YOY basis during May ’20, finishing higher for the third consecutive month and reaching a record high seasonal level. Domestic butter demand increased 16.9% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 1.1% YOY decline in export demand.
’18-’19 annual butter disappearance finished 3.5% higher YOY, reaching a record high level. Domestic disappearance increased 4.5%, also reaching the highest annual figure on record. ’19-’20 YTD butter disappearance has increased an additional 1.3% throughout the first two thirds of the production season.
U.S. butter production and import figures outpaced domestic use and export figures during May ’20, resulting in stocks increasing to a 26 year high level. Butter stocks typically reach seasonal low levels throughout the months of November and December, prior to increasing throughout the first two thirds of the calendar year.
Cheese – Disappearance Declines 0.2% YOY but Remains at the Second Highest Seasonal Level
U.S. cheese commercial disappearance declined 0.2% on a YOY basis during May ’20, finishing lower for the sixth time in the past seven months but remaining at the second highest seasonal level on record. Other-than-American cheese disappearance declined 2.3% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 3.2% YOY increase in American cheese disappearance. Domestic cheese demand declined 0.7% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 7.9% YOY increase in export demand.
’18-’19 annual cheese disappearance increased 2.2% to a record annual high as domestic demand increased 2.2%, also reaching the highest figure on record. ’19-’20 YTD cheese disappearance has declined by 1.6% throughout the first two thirds of the production season, however.
U.S. cheese domestic use and export figures outpaced production and import figures during May ’20, resulting in stocks declining from the record high level experienced throughout the previous month but remaining at a record high seasonal level.
Dry Whey – Disappearance Declines to a Six Year Low Seasonal Level, Finishes Down 13.7% YOY
U.S. dry whey commercial disappearance declined 13.7% on a YOY basis during May ’20, finishing lower for the third time in the past four months and reaching a six year low seasonal level. Domestic dry whey demand declined 32.7% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 26.4% YOY increase in export demand.
’18-’19 annual dry whey disappearance declined 9.7% YOY from the ten year high level experienced throughout the previous production season, finishing at a four year low level, overall. Domestic disappearance increased 9.0% YOY, however, reaching a three year high level. ’19-’20 YTD dry whey disappearance has rebounded by 3.3% throughout the first two thirds of the production season, despite the most recent decline.
U.S. dry whey production and import figures outpaced domestic use and export figures during May ’20, resulting in stocks increasing to a 27 month high level.
WPC – Disappearance Declines to an Eight Year Low Seasonal Level, Finishes Down 12.7% YOY
U.S. whey protein concentrate (WPC) commercial disappearance declined 12.7% on a YOY basis during May ’20, finishing lower for the 14th time in the past 16 months and reaching an eight year low seasonal level. Domestic WPC demand declined 37.3% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 5.6% YOY increase in export demand.
’18-’19 annual WPC disappearance declined 5.8% YOY from the record high level experienced throughout the previous production season. Domestic disappearance increased 33.3% YOY, however, reaching a four year high level. ’19-’20 YTD WPC disappearance has declined by an additional 5.8% on a YOY basis throughout the first two thirds of the production season.
U.S. WPC production and import figures outpaced domestic use and export figures during May ’20, resulting in stocks rebounding from the eight month low level experienced throughout the previous month.
NFDM/SMP – Disappearance Reaches a Record High Seasonal Level, Finishes up 33.5% YOY
U.S. nonfat dry milk (NFDM) and skim milk powder (SMP) commercial disappearance increased 33.5% on a YOY basis during May ’20, finishing higher for the first time in the past five months and reaching a record high seasonal level. NFDM/SMP commercial disappearance reached the second highest monthly level on record. Domestic NFDM/SMP demand increased 58.3% on a YOY basis throughout the month, while export demand increased 24.6%.
’18-’19 annual NFDM/SMP disappearance declined 2.4% YOY from the record high level experienced throughout the previous production season, despite finishing 10.0% higher on a YOY basis throughout the final third of the production season. Domestic disappearance increased 10.9%, however, rebounding from the 11 year low experienced throughout the previous production season. ’19-’20 YTD NFDM/SMP disappearance has rebounded by 1.3% throughout the first two thirds of the production season, however.
U.S. NFDM/SMP domestic use and export figures outpaced production and import figures during May ’20, resulting in stocks declining from the record high level experienced throughout the previous month but remaining at a record high seasonal level.
On an absolute basis, May ’20 domestic commercial disappearance increased most significantly on a YOY basis for NFDM/SMP, followed by butter, while declining most significantly for dry whey. International commercial disappearance increased most significantly on a YOY basis for NFDM/SMP.
Fluid Milk – Total Milk Sales Decline to a Record Low Seasonal Level, Finish Down 2.6% YOY
U.S. fluid milk sales declined on a YOY basis for the first time in the past three months during May ’20, finishing down 2.6% and reaching a record low seasonal level. Sales of whole milk sales reached a 13 year high seasonal level however sales of fat-free milk declined to the lowest monthly level on record. U.S. fluid milk sales declined on a YOY basis over seven consecutive months through Feb ’20, prior to increasing on a YOY basis throughout the months of March and April as consumers stocked up with the anticipation of hunkering down due to COVID-19.
’18-’19 annual total fluid milk sales declined to a record low level for the tenth consecutive year, finishing down 1.5%, as whole milk sales increased to an 11 year high but fat-free milk sales declined to the lowest figure on record, down over 50% from levels experienced ten years ago. ’19-’20 YTD total fluid milk sales have declined by an additional 0.9% on a YOY basis throughout the first two thirds of the production season.
Fat consumed within U.S. fluid milk also declined on a YOY basis for the first time in the past three months during May ’20, finishing down 1.4% and reaching a four year seasonal low level. ’18-’19 annual total fat consumed within fluid milk declined 0.3% on a YOY basis, reaching a four year low level, however ’19-’20 YTD figures have rebounded by 0.4% on a YOY basis throughout the first two thirds of the production season.