EU-28 Milk Production Update – Jul ’20
Executive Summary
EU-28 milk production figures provided by Eurostat were recently updated with values spanning through May ’20. Highlights from the updated report include:
The May ’20 YOY decline in EU-28 milk production volumes was the first experienced throughout the past 16 months. 2020 YTD EU-28 milk production volumes remain 0.7% above previous year levels throughout the first five months of the calendar year, despite the most recent decline. USDA is projecting EU-28 milk production volumes will remain flat throughout the 2020 calendar year as increasing milk yields due to high-quality genetics and better herd management will offset declining dairy cow herd inventories.
May ’20 YOY declines in production on an absolute basis were led by Italy, followed by France, while YOY increases in production on an absolute basis were led by Ireland, followed by Poland. Italy enforced nationwide travel restrictions in mid-March due to COVID-19.
YOY declines in production on a percentage basis were led by Italy (-7.5%), followed by Romania (-3.8%) and Croatia (-3.1%), while increases in production on a percentage basis were most significant within Cyprus (+14.1%), followed by Luxembourg (+6.8%) and the Estonia (+3.8%).
Five of the top ten milk producing member states experienced YOY declines in milk production during May ’20, resulting in production within the top ten milk producing member states declining by a weighted average of 0.4% throughout the month. The top ten EU-28 milk producing member states accounted for over 85% of the total EU-28 milk production experienced throughout the month. Overall, just 11 of the 28 member states experienced YOY declines in production volumes during May ’20, however.
EU-28 beef & dairy cow slaughter finished lower on a YOY basis for the ninth time in the past 11 months during Apr ’20 when normalizing for slaughter days, declining by 12.9% and reaching a record low seasonal level. The decline in beef & dairy cow slaughter rates was likely amplified by dislocations in meat processing caused by COVID-19. YOY declines in beef & dairy cow slaughter were most significant throughout the Netherlands, followed by Germany, Italy, Ireland and France.
’19-’20 annual EU-28 bovine slaughter declined on a YOY basis for the first time in the past six years, finishing down 1.8% and reaching a four year low level. USDA expects the EU-28 dairy cow herd to decline 1.2% throughout the 2020 calendar year, due to feed shortages stemming from the recent droughts but noted additional culling rates, coupled with improved genetics, are expected to have a positive impact on future per cow productivity as lower producing animals are culled.
- EU-28 milk production declined 0.2% on a YOY basis throughout May ’20, reaching a three year seasonal low level. The YOY decline in EU-28 milk production volumes was the first experienced throughout the past 16 months.
- May ’20 YOY declines in milk production were led by Italy, followed by France, while YOY increases in milk production were led by Ireland, followed by Poland. Overall, 17 of the 28 member states experienced YOY increases in milk production throughout the month, despite total production declining throughout the month.
- EU-28 beef & dairy cow slaughter rates finished lower on a YOY basis for the ninth time in the past 11 months during Apr ’20 when normalizing for slaughter days, declining by 12.9% and reaching a record low seasonal level.
The May ’20 YOY decline in EU-28 milk production volumes was the first experienced throughout the past 16 months. 2020 YTD EU-28 milk production volumes remain 0.7% above previous year levels throughout the first five months of the calendar year, despite the most recent decline. USDA is projecting EU-28 milk production volumes will remain flat throughout the 2020 calendar year as increasing milk yields due to high-quality genetics and better herd management will offset declining dairy cow herd inventories.
May ’20 YOY declines in production on an absolute basis were led by Italy, followed by France, while YOY increases in production on an absolute basis were led by Ireland, followed by Poland. Italy enforced nationwide travel restrictions in mid-March due to COVID-19.
YOY declines in production on a percentage basis were led by Italy (-7.5%), followed by Romania (-3.8%) and Croatia (-3.1%), while increases in production on a percentage basis were most significant within Cyprus (+14.1%), followed by Luxembourg (+6.8%) and the Estonia (+3.8%).
Five of the top ten milk producing member states experienced YOY declines in milk production during May ’20, resulting in production within the top ten milk producing member states declining by a weighted average of 0.4% throughout the month. The top ten EU-28 milk producing member states accounted for over 85% of the total EU-28 milk production experienced throughout the month. Overall, just 11 of the 28 member states experienced YOY declines in production volumes during May ’20, however.
EU-28 beef & dairy cow slaughter finished lower on a YOY basis for the ninth time in the past 11 months during Apr ’20 when normalizing for slaughter days, declining by 12.9% and reaching a record low seasonal level. The decline in beef & dairy cow slaughter rates was likely amplified by dislocations in meat processing caused by COVID-19. YOY declines in beef & dairy cow slaughter were most significant throughout the Netherlands, followed by Germany, Italy, Ireland and France.
’19-’20 annual EU-28 bovine slaughter declined on a YOY basis for the first time in the past six years, finishing down 1.8% and reaching a four year low level. USDA expects the EU-28 dairy cow herd to decline 1.2% throughout the 2020 calendar year, due to feed shortages stemming from the recent droughts but noted additional culling rates, coupled with improved genetics, are expected to have a positive impact on future per cow productivity as lower producing animals are culled.