U.S. Dairy Cold Storage Update – Jun ’20
Executive Summary
U.S. cold storage figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through May ’20. Highlights from the updated report include:
According to the USDA, May ’20 U.S. butter stocks increased seasonally while remaining higher on a YOY basis for the 11th consecutive month, finishing up 21.2% and reaching a 26 year high level. The MOM increase in butter stocks of 7.6 million pounds, or 2.0%, was the smallest seasonal build experienced throughout the past ten years, however, finishing significantly below the ten year average April – May seasonal build of 21.4 million pounds, or 9.1%. Butter stocks typically reach seasonal low levels throughout the months of November and December, prior to increasing throughout the first half of the calendar year.
On a days of usage basis, May ’20 U.S. butter stocks also finished higher YOY. When assuming 12-month rolling average YOY changes in usage rates and known stock values for the month of May, butter stocks on a days of usage basis increased YOY for the fourth time in the past five months, finishing up 21.6%.
Cheese – Stocks Decline Contraseasonally but Remain at a Record High Seasonal Level, up 5.0% YOY
May ’20 U.S. cheese stocks declined contraseasonally from the record high level experienced throughout the previous month but remained 5.0% above previous year volumes, reaching a record high seasonal level. The YOY increase in cheese stocks was the second experienced in a row. American cheese stocks increased 4.3% YOY throughout the month while other-than-American cheese stocks finished 5.9% higher on a YOY basis. The MOM decline in cheese stocks of 24.0 million pounds, or 1.6%, was a contraseasonal move when compared to the ten year average April – May seasonal build of 17.0 million pounds, or 1.5%.
On a days of usage basis, May ’20 U.S. cheese stocks also finished higher YOY. When assuming 12-month rolling average YOY changes in usage rates and known stock values for the month of May, cheese stocks on a days of usage basis increased YOY for the fourth time in the past five months, finishing up 5.8%.
Combined Dairy Product Stocks – May ’20 Stocks Projected to Remain at a Record High Seasonal Level
Combined stocks of butter, cheese, dry whey and nonfat dry milk finished 13.5% higher on a YOY basis during Apr ’20, reaching a record high monthly level. The YOY increase in combined dairy product stocks was the third experienced in a row and the largest experienced throughout the past four and a half years on a percentage basis.
Combined stocks of butter, cheese, dry whey and nonfat dry milk are projected to decline from the April record high level but remain at a record high seasonal level throughout May ’20 when using actual butter and cheese stock figures and previous month YOY changes in dry whey and nonfat dry milk stocks, increasing by an estimated 12.3%. May ’20 dry whey and nonfat dry milk stock figures are scheduled to be available Jul 1st.
- U.S. butter stocks remained higher on a YOY basis for the 11th consecutive month during May ’20, finishing up 21.2% and reaching a 26 year high level, overall.
- May ’20 U.S. cheese stocks declined contraseasonally from the record high level experienced throughout the previous month but remained 5.0% higher on a YOY basis, reaching a record seasonal high level.
According to the USDA, May ’20 U.S. butter stocks increased seasonally while remaining higher on a YOY basis for the 11th consecutive month, finishing up 21.2% and reaching a 26 year high level. The MOM increase in butter stocks of 7.6 million pounds, or 2.0%, was the smallest seasonal build experienced throughout the past ten years, however, finishing significantly below the ten year average April – May seasonal build of 21.4 million pounds, or 9.1%. Butter stocks typically reach seasonal low levels throughout the months of November and December, prior to increasing throughout the first half of the calendar year.
On a days of usage basis, May ’20 U.S. butter stocks also finished higher YOY. When assuming 12-month rolling average YOY changes in usage rates and known stock values for the month of May, butter stocks on a days of usage basis increased YOY for the fourth time in the past five months, finishing up 21.6%.
Cheese – Stocks Decline Contraseasonally but Remain at a Record High Seasonal Level, up 5.0% YOY
May ’20 U.S. cheese stocks declined contraseasonally from the record high level experienced throughout the previous month but remained 5.0% above previous year volumes, reaching a record high seasonal level. The YOY increase in cheese stocks was the second experienced in a row. American cheese stocks increased 4.3% YOY throughout the month while other-than-American cheese stocks finished 5.9% higher on a YOY basis. The MOM decline in cheese stocks of 24.0 million pounds, or 1.6%, was a contraseasonal move when compared to the ten year average April – May seasonal build of 17.0 million pounds, or 1.5%.
On a days of usage basis, May ’20 U.S. cheese stocks also finished higher YOY. When assuming 12-month rolling average YOY changes in usage rates and known stock values for the month of May, cheese stocks on a days of usage basis increased YOY for the fourth time in the past five months, finishing up 5.8%.
Combined Dairy Product Stocks – May ’20 Stocks Projected to Remain at a Record High Seasonal Level
Combined stocks of butter, cheese, dry whey and nonfat dry milk finished 13.5% higher on a YOY basis during Apr ’20, reaching a record high monthly level. The YOY increase in combined dairy product stocks was the third experienced in a row and the largest experienced throughout the past four and a half years on a percentage basis.
Combined stocks of butter, cheese, dry whey and nonfat dry milk are projected to decline from the April record high level but remain at a record high seasonal level throughout May ’20 when using actual butter and cheese stock figures and previous month YOY changes in dry whey and nonfat dry milk stocks, increasing by an estimated 12.3%. May ’20 dry whey and nonfat dry milk stock figures are scheduled to be available Jul 1st.