U.S. Milk Production Update – Jun ’20
Executive Summary
U.S. milk production figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through May ’20. Highlights from the updated report include:
U.S. milk production volumes had finished higher on a YOY basis over 61 consecutive months from Jan ’14 – Jan ‘19, reaching the longest period of consecutive growth on record, prior to declining by a total of 0.3% from May ’19 – Jun ’19. Milk production volumes rebounded throughout more recent months, however, finishing higher over ten consecutive months through Apr ’20, prior to declining throughout the month of May. The May ’20 YOY decline in milk production was the largest experienced throughout the past ten years.
YOY declines in production on a percentage basis were led by New Mexico (-7.2%), followed by Vermont (-6.4%) and New York (-3.7%), while production volumes finished most significantly higher YOY on a percentage basis within South Dakota (+9.7%) and Idaho (+4.8%). Overall, 14 of the 24 states milk production figures are provided for experienced YOY declines in production throughout the month while production volumes increased on a YOY basis throughout just seven of the 24 states.
California milk production volumes declined on a YOY basis for the first time in the past five months during May ’20, finishing down 1.5%. The YOY decline in California milk production volumes was the largest experienced throughout the past 22 months on a percentage basis. California accounted for 18.6% of total U.S. milk production volumes throughout the month, leading all states.
Eight of the top ten largest milk producing states experienced YOY declines in production throughout May ’20, as milk production within the top ten milk producing states declined by a weighted average of 1.4% throughout the month. The aforementioned states accounted for nearly three quarters of the total U.S. milk production experienced during May ’20. Production volumes outside of the top ten largest milk producing states declined 0.4% on a YOY basis throughout the month.
May ’20 YOY declines in milk production on an absolute basis were led by Wisconsin, followed by California and New Mexico, while YOY increases in production on an absolute basis were most significant throughout Idaho, followed by Texas and South Dakota.
The May ’20 U.S. milk cow herd declined 11,000 head from the previous month, reaching a four month low level. The month-over-month decline in the U.S. milk cow herd was the largest experienced throughout the past ten months. The U.S. milk cow herd currently stands at 9.37 million head, remaining up 37,000 head from the previous year but finishing 68,000 head below the 23 year high level experienced during Jan ’18.
The U.S. milk per cow yield declined on a YOY basis for the first time in the past 55 months throughout May ’20, finishing 1.5% below the previous year. The YOY decline in milk per cow yields was the largest experienced throughout the past 19 years. Yields experienced throughout the Midwestern states of Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa and Illinois finished 0.9% lower on a YOY basis while yields experienced throughout the Western states of California, Idaho, Washington and Oregon declined 0.8% YOY.
Month-over-month declines in milk cow herds experienced throughout Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Minnesota, New Mexico, Iowa, Washington, Kansas and Vermont more than offset a MOM increase in the South Dakota milk cow herd during May ’20.
YOY increases in milk cow herds continue to be led by Idaho, followed by Texas and South Dakota, while Wisconsin and Pennsylvania experienced the largest YOY declines in their milk cow herds throughout the month.
- U.S. milk production continued to decline contraseasonally while finishing lower on a YOY basis for the first time in the past 11 months, finishing 1.1% below previous year levels. Milk production volumes reached a four year seasonal low level for the month of May while the YOY decline in milk production volumes was the largest experienced throughout the past ten years.
- The May ’20 U.S. milk cow herd declined 11,000 head from the previous month, reaching a four month low level. Milk cow herd figures remain 37,000 head above the previous year but finished 68,000 head below the 23 year high level experienced during Jan ’18.
- U.S. milk per cow yields declined on a YOY basis for the first time in the past 55 months throughout May ’20, finishing 1.5% below the previous year. The YOY decline in milk per cow yields was the largest experienced throughout the past 19 years.
U.S. milk production volumes had finished higher on a YOY basis over 61 consecutive months from Jan ’14 – Jan ‘19, reaching the longest period of consecutive growth on record, prior to declining by a total of 0.3% from May ’19 – Jun ’19. Milk production volumes rebounded throughout more recent months, however, finishing higher over ten consecutive months through Apr ’20, prior to declining throughout the month of May. The May ’20 YOY decline in milk production was the largest experienced throughout the past ten years.
YOY declines in production on a percentage basis were led by New Mexico (-7.2%), followed by Vermont (-6.4%) and New York (-3.7%), while production volumes finished most significantly higher YOY on a percentage basis within South Dakota (+9.7%) and Idaho (+4.8%). Overall, 14 of the 24 states milk production figures are provided for experienced YOY declines in production throughout the month while production volumes increased on a YOY basis throughout just seven of the 24 states.
California milk production volumes declined on a YOY basis for the first time in the past five months during May ’20, finishing down 1.5%. The YOY decline in California milk production volumes was the largest experienced throughout the past 22 months on a percentage basis. California accounted for 18.6% of total U.S. milk production volumes throughout the month, leading all states.
Eight of the top ten largest milk producing states experienced YOY declines in production throughout May ’20, as milk production within the top ten milk producing states declined by a weighted average of 1.4% throughout the month. The aforementioned states accounted for nearly three quarters of the total U.S. milk production experienced during May ’20. Production volumes outside of the top ten largest milk producing states declined 0.4% on a YOY basis throughout the month.
May ’20 YOY declines in milk production on an absolute basis were led by Wisconsin, followed by California and New Mexico, while YOY increases in production on an absolute basis were most significant throughout Idaho, followed by Texas and South Dakota.
The May ’20 U.S. milk cow herd declined 11,000 head from the previous month, reaching a four month low level. The month-over-month decline in the U.S. milk cow herd was the largest experienced throughout the past ten months. The U.S. milk cow herd currently stands at 9.37 million head, remaining up 37,000 head from the previous year but finishing 68,000 head below the 23 year high level experienced during Jan ’18.
The U.S. milk per cow yield declined on a YOY basis for the first time in the past 55 months throughout May ’20, finishing 1.5% below the previous year. The YOY decline in milk per cow yields was the largest experienced throughout the past 19 years. Yields experienced throughout the Midwestern states of Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa and Illinois finished 0.9% lower on a YOY basis while yields experienced throughout the Western states of California, Idaho, Washington and Oregon declined 0.8% YOY.
Month-over-month declines in milk cow herds experienced throughout Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Minnesota, New Mexico, Iowa, Washington, Kansas and Vermont more than offset a MOM increase in the South Dakota milk cow herd during May ’20.
YOY increases in milk cow herds continue to be led by Idaho, followed by Texas and South Dakota, while Wisconsin and Pennsylvania experienced the largest YOY declines in their milk cow herds throughout the month.