U.S. Dairy Commercial Disappearance Update – Jun ’20
Executive Summary
U.S. dairy commercial disappearance figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Apr ’20. Highlights from the updated report include:
U.S. commercial disappearance for milk used in all products on a skim-solids basis declined on a YOY basis for the second time in the past three months during Apr ’20, finishing down 2.8% and reaching a four year seasonal low level. Domestic demand declined 6.2% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 12.8% YOY increase in export demand.
’18-’19 annual commercial disappearance for milk used in all products on a skim-solids basis declined 0.6% YOY from the record high levels experienced throughout the previous production season, despite domestic demand increasing 2.5%, reaching the highest annual figure on record. ’19-’20 YTD commercial disappearance for milk used in all products on a skim-solids basis has rebounded by 0.8% throughout the first seven months of the production season, despite the recently experienced declines.
Butter – Disappearance Reaches a Six Year High Seasonal Level, Finishes up 3.4% YOY
U.S. butter commercial disappearance increased 3.4% on a YOY basis during Apr ’20, finishing higher for the second consecutive month and reaching a six year high seasonal level. Domestic butter demand increased 3.6% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 7.7% YOY decline in export demand.
’18-’19 annual butter disappearance finished 3.5% higher YOY, reaching a record high level. Domestic disappearance increased 4.5%, also reaching the highest annual figure on record. ’19-’20 YTD butter disappearance has declined by 0.3% throughout the first seven months of the production season, however, despite the most recent increases.
U.S. butter production and import figures outpaced domestic use and export figures during Apr ’20, resulting in stocks increasing to a 26 year high level. Butter stocks typically reach seasonal low levels throughout the months of November and December, prior to increasing throughout the first half of the calendar year.
Cheese – Disappearance Declines to a Six Year Low Seasonal Level, Finishes Down 11.0% YOY
U.S. cheese commercial disappearance declined 11.0% on a YOY basis during Apr ’20, finishing lower for the fifth time in the past six months and reaching a six year low seasonal level. American cheese disappearance declined 11.4% on a YOY basis throughout the month while other-than-American cheese disappearance finished 10.8% lower YOY. Domestic cheese demand declined 10.6% on a YOY basis throughout the month while export demand declined 17.6% YOY.
’18-’19 annual cheese disappearance increased 2.2% to a record annual high as domestic demand increased 2.2%, also reaching the highest figure on record. ’19-’20 YTD cheese disappearance has declined by 1.8% throughout the first seven months of the production season, however.
U.S. cheese production and import figures outpaced domestic use and export figures during Apr ’20, resulting in stocks increasing to a record high monthly figure.
Dry Whey – Disappearance Declines to a Five Year Low Seasonal Level, Finishes Down 9.5% YOY
U.S. dry whey commercial disappearance declined 9.5% on a YOY basis during Apr ’20, finishing lower for the second time in the past three months and reaching a five year low seasonal level. Domestic dry whey demand declined 27.3% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 20.4% YOY increase in export demand.
’18-’19 annual dry whey disappearance declined 9.7% YOY from the ten year high level experienced throughout the previous production season, finishing at a four year low level, overall. Domestic disappearance increased 9.0% YOY, however, reaching a three year high level. ’19-’20 YTD dry whey disappearance has rebounded by 6.1% throughout the first seven months of the production season, despite the most recent decline.
U.S. dry whey production and import figures outpaced domestic use and export figures during Apr ’20, resulting in stocks increasing to a five month high level.
WPC – Disappearance Declines to a Seven Year Low Seasonal Level, Finishes Down 8.9% YOY
U.S. whey protein concentrate (WPC) commercial disappearance declined 8.9% on a YOY basis during Apr ’20, finishing lower for the 13th time in the past 15 months and reaching a seven year low seasonal level. Domestic WPC demand declined 38.7% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 36.2% YOY increase in export demand.
’18-’19 annual WPC disappearance declined 5.8% YOY from the record high level experienced throughout the previous production season. Domestic disappearance increased 33.3% YOY, however, reaching a four year high level. ’19-’20 YTD WPC disappearance has declined by an additional 5.1% on a YOY basis throughout the first seven months of the production season.
U.S. WPC domestic use and export figures outpaced production and import figures during Apr ’20, resulting in stocks declining to an eight month low level.
NFDM/SMP – Disappearance Declines to a Nine Year Low Seasonal Level, Finishes Down 21.2% YOY
U.S. nonfat dry milk (NFDM) and skim milk powder (SMP) commercial disappearance declined 21.2% on a YOY basis during Apr ’20, finishing lower for the fourth consecutive month and reaching a nine year low seasonal level. Domestic NFDM/SMP demand declined 70.9% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 19.9% YOY increase in export demand.
’18-’19 annual NFDM/SMP disappearance declined 2.4% YOY from the record high level experienced throughout the previous production season, despite finishing 10.0% higher on a YOY basis throughout the final third of the production season. Domestic disappearance increased 10.9%, however, rebounding from the 11 year low experienced throughout the previous production season. ’19-’20 YTD NFDM/SMP disappearance has declined by an additional 4.0% throughout the first seven months of the production season.
U.S. NFDM/SMP production and import figures outpaced domestic use and export figures during Apr ’20, resulting in stocks increasing to a record high monthly figure.
On an absolute basis, Apr ’20 domestic commercial disappearance declined most significantly on a YOY basis for cheese, followed by NFDM/SMP, while increasing most significantly for butter. International commercial disappearance increased most significantly on a YOY basis for NFDM/SMP while cheese export demand finished most significantly lower YOY.
Fluid Milk – Total Milk Sales Increase YOY for the First Time in Eight Months, Finish up 7.9%
U.S. fluid milk sales increased on a YOY basis for the first time in the past eight months during Mar ’20, finishing up 7.9% and reaching a three year high seasonal level. Sales of whole milk sales were particularly strong, increasing by 18.0% on a YOY basis and reaching a 15 year high seasonal level. Sales increased as consumers stocked up with the anticipation of hunkering down due to COVID-19.
’18-’19 annual total fluid milk sales declined to a record low level for the tenth consecutive year, finishing down 1.5%, as whole milk sales increased to an 11 year high but fat-free milk sales declined to the lowest figure on record, down over 50% from levels experienced ten years ago. ’19-’20 YTD total fluid milk sales have declined by an additional 1.1% on a YOY basis throughout the first half of the production season, despite the most recent increase.
Fat consumed within U.S. fluid milk increased on a YOY basis for the first time in the past eight months during Mar ’20, finishing up 10.7% and reaching a ten year seasonal high level. ’18-’19 annual total fat consumed within fluid milk declined 0.3% on a YOY basis, reaching a four year low level, however ’19-’20 YTD figures have rebounded by 0.3% on a YOY basis throughout the first half of the production season.
- U.S. commercial disappearance for milk used in all products declined 5.2% YOY on a milk-fat basis and 2.8% YOY on a skim-solids basis during Apr ’20, each reaching four year seasonal low levels. Domestic demand declined 5.0% YOY on a milk-fat basis and 6.2% YOY on a skim-solids basis throughout the month.
- Butter commercial disappearance increased to a six year seasonal high level throughout Apr ’20 however cheese and nonfat dry milk/skim milk powder commercial disappearance declined to six and nine year seasonal low levels, respectively. Apr ’20 dry whey commercial disappearance declined to a five year seasonal low level while whey protein concentrate commercial disappearance declined to as seven year seasonal low.
- U.S. fluid milk sales increased on a YOY basis for the first time in the past eight months during Mar ’20, finishing up 7.9% and reaching a three year seasonal high level. Sales increased as consumers stocked up with the anticipation of hunkering down due to COVID-19.
U.S. commercial disappearance for milk used in all products on a skim-solids basis declined on a YOY basis for the second time in the past three months during Apr ’20, finishing down 2.8% and reaching a four year seasonal low level. Domestic demand declined 6.2% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 12.8% YOY increase in export demand.
’18-’19 annual commercial disappearance for milk used in all products on a skim-solids basis declined 0.6% YOY from the record high levels experienced throughout the previous production season, despite domestic demand increasing 2.5%, reaching the highest annual figure on record. ’19-’20 YTD commercial disappearance for milk used in all products on a skim-solids basis has rebounded by 0.8% throughout the first seven months of the production season, despite the recently experienced declines.
Butter – Disappearance Reaches a Six Year High Seasonal Level, Finishes up 3.4% YOY
U.S. butter commercial disappearance increased 3.4% on a YOY basis during Apr ’20, finishing higher for the second consecutive month and reaching a six year high seasonal level. Domestic butter demand increased 3.6% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 7.7% YOY decline in export demand.
’18-’19 annual butter disappearance finished 3.5% higher YOY, reaching a record high level. Domestic disappearance increased 4.5%, also reaching the highest annual figure on record. ’19-’20 YTD butter disappearance has declined by 0.3% throughout the first seven months of the production season, however, despite the most recent increases.
U.S. butter production and import figures outpaced domestic use and export figures during Apr ’20, resulting in stocks increasing to a 26 year high level. Butter stocks typically reach seasonal low levels throughout the months of November and December, prior to increasing throughout the first half of the calendar year.
Cheese – Disappearance Declines to a Six Year Low Seasonal Level, Finishes Down 11.0% YOY
U.S. cheese commercial disappearance declined 11.0% on a YOY basis during Apr ’20, finishing lower for the fifth time in the past six months and reaching a six year low seasonal level. American cheese disappearance declined 11.4% on a YOY basis throughout the month while other-than-American cheese disappearance finished 10.8% lower YOY. Domestic cheese demand declined 10.6% on a YOY basis throughout the month while export demand declined 17.6% YOY.
’18-’19 annual cheese disappearance increased 2.2% to a record annual high as domestic demand increased 2.2%, also reaching the highest figure on record. ’19-’20 YTD cheese disappearance has declined by 1.8% throughout the first seven months of the production season, however.
U.S. cheese production and import figures outpaced domestic use and export figures during Apr ’20, resulting in stocks increasing to a record high monthly figure.
Dry Whey – Disappearance Declines to a Five Year Low Seasonal Level, Finishes Down 9.5% YOY
U.S. dry whey commercial disappearance declined 9.5% on a YOY basis during Apr ’20, finishing lower for the second time in the past three months and reaching a five year low seasonal level. Domestic dry whey demand declined 27.3% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 20.4% YOY increase in export demand.
’18-’19 annual dry whey disappearance declined 9.7% YOY from the ten year high level experienced throughout the previous production season, finishing at a four year low level, overall. Domestic disappearance increased 9.0% YOY, however, reaching a three year high level. ’19-’20 YTD dry whey disappearance has rebounded by 6.1% throughout the first seven months of the production season, despite the most recent decline.
U.S. dry whey production and import figures outpaced domestic use and export figures during Apr ’20, resulting in stocks increasing to a five month high level.
WPC – Disappearance Declines to a Seven Year Low Seasonal Level, Finishes Down 8.9% YOY
U.S. whey protein concentrate (WPC) commercial disappearance declined 8.9% on a YOY basis during Apr ’20, finishing lower for the 13th time in the past 15 months and reaching a seven year low seasonal level. Domestic WPC demand declined 38.7% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 36.2% YOY increase in export demand.
’18-’19 annual WPC disappearance declined 5.8% YOY from the record high level experienced throughout the previous production season. Domestic disappearance increased 33.3% YOY, however, reaching a four year high level. ’19-’20 YTD WPC disappearance has declined by an additional 5.1% on a YOY basis throughout the first seven months of the production season.
U.S. WPC domestic use and export figures outpaced production and import figures during Apr ’20, resulting in stocks declining to an eight month low level.
NFDM/SMP – Disappearance Declines to a Nine Year Low Seasonal Level, Finishes Down 21.2% YOY
U.S. nonfat dry milk (NFDM) and skim milk powder (SMP) commercial disappearance declined 21.2% on a YOY basis during Apr ’20, finishing lower for the fourth consecutive month and reaching a nine year low seasonal level. Domestic NFDM/SMP demand declined 70.9% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 19.9% YOY increase in export demand.
’18-’19 annual NFDM/SMP disappearance declined 2.4% YOY from the record high level experienced throughout the previous production season, despite finishing 10.0% higher on a YOY basis throughout the final third of the production season. Domestic disappearance increased 10.9%, however, rebounding from the 11 year low experienced throughout the previous production season. ’19-’20 YTD NFDM/SMP disappearance has declined by an additional 4.0% throughout the first seven months of the production season.
U.S. NFDM/SMP production and import figures outpaced domestic use and export figures during Apr ’20, resulting in stocks increasing to a record high monthly figure.
On an absolute basis, Apr ’20 domestic commercial disappearance declined most significantly on a YOY basis for cheese, followed by NFDM/SMP, while increasing most significantly for butter. International commercial disappearance increased most significantly on a YOY basis for NFDM/SMP while cheese export demand finished most significantly lower YOY.
Fluid Milk – Total Milk Sales Increase YOY for the First Time in Eight Months, Finish up 7.9%
U.S. fluid milk sales increased on a YOY basis for the first time in the past eight months during Mar ’20, finishing up 7.9% and reaching a three year high seasonal level. Sales of whole milk sales were particularly strong, increasing by 18.0% on a YOY basis and reaching a 15 year high seasonal level. Sales increased as consumers stocked up with the anticipation of hunkering down due to COVID-19.
’18-’19 annual total fluid milk sales declined to a record low level for the tenth consecutive year, finishing down 1.5%, as whole milk sales increased to an 11 year high but fat-free milk sales declined to the lowest figure on record, down over 50% from levels experienced ten years ago. ’19-’20 YTD total fluid milk sales have declined by an additional 1.1% on a YOY basis throughout the first half of the production season, despite the most recent increase.
Fat consumed within U.S. fluid milk increased on a YOY basis for the first time in the past eight months during Mar ’20, finishing up 10.7% and reaching a ten year seasonal high level. ’18-’19 annual total fat consumed within fluid milk declined 0.3% on a YOY basis, reaching a four year low level, however ’19-’20 YTD figures have rebounded by 0.3% on a YOY basis throughout the first half of the production season.