U.S. Dairy Exports Update – Jun ’20
Executive Summary
U.S. dairy export figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Apr ’20. Highlights from the updated report include:
Mexico, Canada and Saudi Arabia were the top destinations for U.S. butterfat export volumes throughout Apr ’20, combining to account for over half of the total export volumes.
Butterfat export volumes destined to Saudi Arabia increased most significantly on a YOY basis throughout the month, followed by volumes destined to Mexico, while butterfat export volumes destined to the Canada and South Korea finished most significantly lower.
Canada and Mexico have historically been the largest importers of U.S. butterfat, accounting for over half of the total U.S. export volumes experienced throughout the past five years. U.S. butterfat export volumes destined to Canada and Mexico have declined by 29.2% and 67.5%, respectively, on a YOY basis throughout the past 12 months, compared to a 38.5% YOY decline in U.S. butterfat export volumes destined to all other countries.
Cheese – Export Volumes Decline YOY for the Fourth Time in Five Months, Finish Down 17.6%
U.S. cheese export volumes declined on a YOY basis for the fourth time in the past five months during Apr ’20, finishing down 17.6% and reaching a four year seasonal low level. Cheddar cheese export volumes declined 38.7% on a YOY basis throughout the month while other-than-cheddar cheese export volumes finished 12.7% lower. The YOY decline in cheddar cheese export volumes was the fifth experienced in a row.
’18-’19 annual cheese export volumes increased 2.3% on a YOY basis, reaching a five year high level. ’19-’20 YTD cheese export volumes have declined by 5.4% on a YOY basis throughout the first seven months of the production season, however.
Mexico was the top destination for U.S. cheese export volumes throughout Apr ’20, accounting for a quarter of the total export volumes. Mexico, South Korea and Australia combined to account for over half of the total Apr ’20 U.S. cheese exports volumes.
YOY declines in cheese export volumes were led by product destined to Mexico, while volumes destined to Australia finished most significantly higher on a YOY basis throughout the month.
Mexico and South Korea have historically been the largest importers of U.S. cheese, accounting for 45% of total U.S. cheese export volumes throughout the past five years. Combined U.S. cheese export volumes destined to Mexico and South Korea have declined 3.0% on a YOY basis throughout the past 12 months, however.
Whey – Dry Whey and Whey Protein Concentrate Volumes Each Finish Higher YOY
U.S. dry whey export volumes increased on a YOY basis for the third consecutive month during Apr ’20, finishing up 20.4%. Dry whey export volumes had finished lower on a YOY basis over 17 consecutive months prior to the three most recently experienced YOY increases. U.S. dry whey export volumes increased to a 20 month high, overall, throughout the month.
’18-’19 annual dry whey export volumes declined 29.8% from the four year high level experienced throughout the previous production season, finishing at a 15 year low level. ’19-’20 YTD dry whey export volumes have declined by an additional 4.9% on a YOY basis throughout the first seven months of the production season, despite the recent gains.
U.S. whey protein concentrate (WPC) export volumes increased 36.2% on a YOY basis during Apr ’20, finishing higher on a YOY basis for the sixth time in the past seven months. U.S. WPC export volumes increased to a ten month high, overall, throughout the month.
’18-’19 annual WPC export volumes declined 29.1% from the record high level experienced throughout the previous production season, finishing at a four year low level. ’19-’20 YTD WPC export volumes have rebounded by 27.4% on a YOY basis throughout the first seven months of the production season.
China was the top destination for U.S. whey export volumes throughout Apr ’20, accounting for over a third of the total export volumes. China, Mexico and Canada combined to account for over half of the total Apr ’20 U.S. whey exports volumes.
YOY increases in whey export volumes were led by product destined to China, while volumes destined to the Philippines and Mexico finished most significantly lower on a YOY basis throughout the month.
China has historically been the largest importer of U.S. whey products, accounting for over a third of the total U.S. whey export volumes throughout the past five years. U.S. whey export volumes destined to China have declined 22.8% YOY throughout the past 12 months, more than offsetting a 2.5% YOY increase in whey export volumes destined to all other countries over the same period. China applied a 25% retaliatory tariff to a wide variety of U.S. dairy products including whey during early Jul ’18 while Chinese whey demand has also been reduced on weaker feed demand due to African swine fever.
NFDM/SMP – Export Volumes Increase YOY for the Seventh Time in Eight Months, Finish up 19.9%
U.S. export volumes of nonfat dry milk (NFDM) and skim milk powder (SMP) finished higher on a YOY basis for the seventh time in the past eight months during Apr ’20, increasing by 19.9%. NFDM/SMP export volumes reached the second highest seasonal level on record for the month of April.
’18-’19 annual NFDM/SMP exports declined 9.4% from the record high level experienced throughout the previous production season but remained at the second highest annual figure on record. ’19-’20 YTD NFDM/SMP export volumes have rebounded by 20.6% on a YOY basis throughout the first seven months of the production season and are on pace to reach a record high level.
Mexico was the top destination for U.S. NFDM/SMP export volumes throughout Apr ’20, accounting for over a quarter of the total export volumes. Mexico, the Philippines and Indonesia combined to account for over half of the total Apr ’20 U.S. NFDM/SMP exports volumes.
YOY increases in NFDM/SMP export volumes were led by product destined to Indonesia, followed by volumes destined to Malaysia, while export volumes destined to Mexico finished most significantly lower on a YOY basis throughout the month.
Mexico has historically been the largest importer of U.S. NFDM/SMP, accounting for nearly half of all U.S. NFDM/SMP export volumes throughout the past five years. U.S. NFDM/SMP export volumes destined to Mexico have declined 9.7% on a YOY basis throughout the past 12 months while volumes destined to all other countries have increased 27.2% YOY over the same period.
Export Volumes Normalized to Production
U.S. dry whey and NFDM/SMP export volumes as a percentage of production finished above previous year figures during Apr ’20 however butterfat and cheese export volumes as a percentage of production remained lower on a YOY basis.
Overall, U.S. dairy export volumes were estimated to be equivalent to approximately 15.3% of total U.S. milk-solids production during Apr ’20 while dairy import volumes were estimated to be equivalent to approximately 3.2% of total U.S. milk-solids production. Apr ’20 net dairy trade was estimated to increase 12.4% on a YOY basis, finishing higher for the sixth consecutive month. Net dairy trade had finished lower on a YOY basis over 12 consecutive months prior to increasing YOY over the six most recent months.
U.S. dairy exports as a percentage of milk-solids production increased on a YOY basis for the sixth consecutive month during Apr ’20, finishing up 6.1%. ’18-’19 annual dairy exports as a percentage of milk-solids production declined 12.7% from the record high level experienced throughout the previous production season, finishing at a three year low, however ’19-’20 YTD figures have rebounded by 8.1% on a YOY basis throughout the first seven months of the production season.
U.S. dairy imports as a percentage of milk-solids production declined 12.8% on a YOY basis throughout Apr ’20, finishing at a 22 month low level, overall. The YOY decline in dairy imports as a percentage of milk-solids production was the largest experienced throughout the 22 month period on a percentage basis. ’18-’19 annual dairy imports as a percentage of milk-solids production rebounded 12.7% from the four year low level experienced throughout the previous production season, reaching a three year high, however ’19-’20 YTD figures have declined 1.9% on a YOY basis throughout the first seven months of the production season.
Net trade of U.S. NFDM/SMP continued to outpace that of butter, cheese and dry whey as import volumes remain minimal. Net cheese trade volumes exceeded net dry whey trade volumes for the fourth consecutive month during Apr ’20 while the U.S. finished as a net importer of butter for the 24th consecutive month.
- U.S. butterfat export volumes finished 6.2% higher on a YOY basis throughout Apr ’20 but remained significantly below three year average figures. U.S. cheese export volumes declined 17.6% on a YOY basis throughout the month, however, finishing lower for the fourth time in the past five months.
- U.S. dry whey export volumes increased 20.4% on a YOY basis during Apr ’20, finishing higher for the third consecutive month, while whey protein concentrate export volumes increased 36.2% YOY, finishing higher for the sixth time in the past seven months. U.S. nonfat dry milk/skim milk powder export volumes increased on a YOY basis for the seventh time in the past eight months, finishing up 19.9% and reaching the second highest seasonal level on record.
- Net dairy trade on a percentage of total U.S. milk-solids production basis increased on a YOY basis for the sixth consecutive month during Apr ’20, finishing up 12.4%.
Mexico, Canada and Saudi Arabia were the top destinations for U.S. butterfat export volumes throughout Apr ’20, combining to account for over half of the total export volumes.
Butterfat export volumes destined to Saudi Arabia increased most significantly on a YOY basis throughout the month, followed by volumes destined to Mexico, while butterfat export volumes destined to the Canada and South Korea finished most significantly lower.
Canada and Mexico have historically been the largest importers of U.S. butterfat, accounting for over half of the total U.S. export volumes experienced throughout the past five years. U.S. butterfat export volumes destined to Canada and Mexico have declined by 29.2% and 67.5%, respectively, on a YOY basis throughout the past 12 months, compared to a 38.5% YOY decline in U.S. butterfat export volumes destined to all other countries.
Cheese – Export Volumes Decline YOY for the Fourth Time in Five Months, Finish Down 17.6%
U.S. cheese export volumes declined on a YOY basis for the fourth time in the past five months during Apr ’20, finishing down 17.6% and reaching a four year seasonal low level. Cheddar cheese export volumes declined 38.7% on a YOY basis throughout the month while other-than-cheddar cheese export volumes finished 12.7% lower. The YOY decline in cheddar cheese export volumes was the fifth experienced in a row.
’18-’19 annual cheese export volumes increased 2.3% on a YOY basis, reaching a five year high level. ’19-’20 YTD cheese export volumes have declined by 5.4% on a YOY basis throughout the first seven months of the production season, however.
Mexico was the top destination for U.S. cheese export volumes throughout Apr ’20, accounting for a quarter of the total export volumes. Mexico, South Korea and Australia combined to account for over half of the total Apr ’20 U.S. cheese exports volumes.
YOY declines in cheese export volumes were led by product destined to Mexico, while volumes destined to Australia finished most significantly higher on a YOY basis throughout the month.
Mexico and South Korea have historically been the largest importers of U.S. cheese, accounting for 45% of total U.S. cheese export volumes throughout the past five years. Combined U.S. cheese export volumes destined to Mexico and South Korea have declined 3.0% on a YOY basis throughout the past 12 months, however.
Whey – Dry Whey and Whey Protein Concentrate Volumes Each Finish Higher YOY
U.S. dry whey export volumes increased on a YOY basis for the third consecutive month during Apr ’20, finishing up 20.4%. Dry whey export volumes had finished lower on a YOY basis over 17 consecutive months prior to the three most recently experienced YOY increases. U.S. dry whey export volumes increased to a 20 month high, overall, throughout the month.
’18-’19 annual dry whey export volumes declined 29.8% from the four year high level experienced throughout the previous production season, finishing at a 15 year low level. ’19-’20 YTD dry whey export volumes have declined by an additional 4.9% on a YOY basis throughout the first seven months of the production season, despite the recent gains.
U.S. whey protein concentrate (WPC) export volumes increased 36.2% on a YOY basis during Apr ’20, finishing higher on a YOY basis for the sixth time in the past seven months. U.S. WPC export volumes increased to a ten month high, overall, throughout the month.
’18-’19 annual WPC export volumes declined 29.1% from the record high level experienced throughout the previous production season, finishing at a four year low level. ’19-’20 YTD WPC export volumes have rebounded by 27.4% on a YOY basis throughout the first seven months of the production season.
China was the top destination for U.S. whey export volumes throughout Apr ’20, accounting for over a third of the total export volumes. China, Mexico and Canada combined to account for over half of the total Apr ’20 U.S. whey exports volumes.
YOY increases in whey export volumes were led by product destined to China, while volumes destined to the Philippines and Mexico finished most significantly lower on a YOY basis throughout the month.
China has historically been the largest importer of U.S. whey products, accounting for over a third of the total U.S. whey export volumes throughout the past five years. U.S. whey export volumes destined to China have declined 22.8% YOY throughout the past 12 months, more than offsetting a 2.5% YOY increase in whey export volumes destined to all other countries over the same period. China applied a 25% retaliatory tariff to a wide variety of U.S. dairy products including whey during early Jul ’18 while Chinese whey demand has also been reduced on weaker feed demand due to African swine fever.
NFDM/SMP – Export Volumes Increase YOY for the Seventh Time in Eight Months, Finish up 19.9%
U.S. export volumes of nonfat dry milk (NFDM) and skim milk powder (SMP) finished higher on a YOY basis for the seventh time in the past eight months during Apr ’20, increasing by 19.9%. NFDM/SMP export volumes reached the second highest seasonal level on record for the month of April.
’18-’19 annual NFDM/SMP exports declined 9.4% from the record high level experienced throughout the previous production season but remained at the second highest annual figure on record. ’19-’20 YTD NFDM/SMP export volumes have rebounded by 20.6% on a YOY basis throughout the first seven months of the production season and are on pace to reach a record high level.
Mexico was the top destination for U.S. NFDM/SMP export volumes throughout Apr ’20, accounting for over a quarter of the total export volumes. Mexico, the Philippines and Indonesia combined to account for over half of the total Apr ’20 U.S. NFDM/SMP exports volumes.
YOY increases in NFDM/SMP export volumes were led by product destined to Indonesia, followed by volumes destined to Malaysia, while export volumes destined to Mexico finished most significantly lower on a YOY basis throughout the month.
Mexico has historically been the largest importer of U.S. NFDM/SMP, accounting for nearly half of all U.S. NFDM/SMP export volumes throughout the past five years. U.S. NFDM/SMP export volumes destined to Mexico have declined 9.7% on a YOY basis throughout the past 12 months while volumes destined to all other countries have increased 27.2% YOY over the same period.
Export Volumes Normalized to Production
U.S. dry whey and NFDM/SMP export volumes as a percentage of production finished above previous year figures during Apr ’20 however butterfat and cheese export volumes as a percentage of production remained lower on a YOY basis.
Overall, U.S. dairy export volumes were estimated to be equivalent to approximately 15.3% of total U.S. milk-solids production during Apr ’20 while dairy import volumes were estimated to be equivalent to approximately 3.2% of total U.S. milk-solids production. Apr ’20 net dairy trade was estimated to increase 12.4% on a YOY basis, finishing higher for the sixth consecutive month. Net dairy trade had finished lower on a YOY basis over 12 consecutive months prior to increasing YOY over the six most recent months.
U.S. dairy exports as a percentage of milk-solids production increased on a YOY basis for the sixth consecutive month during Apr ’20, finishing up 6.1%. ’18-’19 annual dairy exports as a percentage of milk-solids production declined 12.7% from the record high level experienced throughout the previous production season, finishing at a three year low, however ’19-’20 YTD figures have rebounded by 8.1% on a YOY basis throughout the first seven months of the production season.
U.S. dairy imports as a percentage of milk-solids production declined 12.8% on a YOY basis throughout Apr ’20, finishing at a 22 month low level, overall. The YOY decline in dairy imports as a percentage of milk-solids production was the largest experienced throughout the 22 month period on a percentage basis. ’18-’19 annual dairy imports as a percentage of milk-solids production rebounded 12.7% from the four year low level experienced throughout the previous production season, reaching a three year high, however ’19-’20 YTD figures have declined 1.9% on a YOY basis throughout the first seven months of the production season.
Net trade of U.S. NFDM/SMP continued to outpace that of butter, cheese and dry whey as import volumes remain minimal. Net cheese trade volumes exceeded net dry whey trade volumes for the fourth consecutive month during Apr ’20 while the U.S. finished as a net importer of butter for the 24th consecutive month.