U.S. Dairy Cold Storage Update – May ’20
Executive Summary
U.S. cold storage figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Apr ’20. Highlights from the updated report include:
According to the USDA, Apr ’20 U.S. butter stocks increased seasonally while remaining higher on a YOY basis for the 11th consecutive month, finishing up 26.8% and reaching a 26 year high level. The MOM increase in butter stocks of 59.1 million pounds, or 19.1%, was the largest seasonal build experienced throughout the past 29 years, finishing significantly above the ten year average March – April seasonal build of 27.9 million pounds, or 12.0%. Butter stocks typically reach seasonal low levels throughout the months of November and December, prior to increasing throughout the first half of the calendar year.
On a days of usage basis, Apr ’20 U.S. butter stocks also finished higher YOY. When assuming 12-month rolling average YOY changes in usage rates and known stock values for the month of April, butter stocks on a days of usage basis increased YOY for the third time in the past four months, finishing up 27.1%.
Cheese – Stocks Reach a Record High Monthly Figure, Finish up 6.1% YOY
Apr ’20 U.S. cheese stocks increased seasonally to a record high monthly figure, finishing 6.1% above previous year volumes. The YOY increase in cheese stocks was the first experienced throughout the past eight months and the largest experienced throughout the past 15 months on a percentage basis. American cheese stocks increased 6.8% YOY throughout the month while other-than-American cheese stocks finished 5.1% higher on a YOY basis. The MOM increase in cheese stocks of 108.3 million pounds, or 7.9%, was the largest seasonal build on record, finishing significantly above the ten year average March – April seasonal build of 19.6 million pounds, or 1.7%.
On a days of usage basis, Apr ’20 U.S. cheese stocks also finished higher YOY. When assuming 12-month rolling average YOY changes in usage rates and known stock values for the month of April, cheese stocks on a days of usage basis increased YOY for the third time in the past four months, finishing up 5.5%.
Combined Dairy Product Stocks – Mar ’20 Stocks Reach a Record High Seasonal Level
Combined stocks of butter, cheese, dry whey and nonfat dry milk finished 3.9% higher on a YOY basis during Mar ’20, increasing for the second consecutive month. Combined dairy product stocks reached a record high seasonal level, finishing 6.6% above three year average seasonal figures.
Combined stocks of butter, cheese, dry whey and NFDM are projected to remain at a record high seasonal level throughout Apr ’20 when using actual butter and cheese stock figures and previous month YOY changes in dry whey and NFDM stocks, increasing by an estimated 10.3%. The Apr ’20 projected YOY increase in combined stocks would be the largest experienced throughout the past 27 months on a percentage basis. Apr ’20 dry whey and NFDM stock figures are scheduled to be available Jun 4th.
- U.S. butter stocks remained higher on a YOY basis for the 11th consecutive month during Apr ’20, finishing up 26.8% and reaching a 26 year high level.
- Apr ’20 U.S. cheese stocks reached a record high monthly figure, finishing 6.1% above previous year volumes. The YOY increase in cheese stocks was the first experienced throughout the past eight months.
According to the USDA, Apr ’20 U.S. butter stocks increased seasonally while remaining higher on a YOY basis for the 11th consecutive month, finishing up 26.8% and reaching a 26 year high level. The MOM increase in butter stocks of 59.1 million pounds, or 19.1%, was the largest seasonal build experienced throughout the past 29 years, finishing significantly above the ten year average March – April seasonal build of 27.9 million pounds, or 12.0%. Butter stocks typically reach seasonal low levels throughout the months of November and December, prior to increasing throughout the first half of the calendar year.
On a days of usage basis, Apr ’20 U.S. butter stocks also finished higher YOY. When assuming 12-month rolling average YOY changes in usage rates and known stock values for the month of April, butter stocks on a days of usage basis increased YOY for the third time in the past four months, finishing up 27.1%.
Cheese – Stocks Reach a Record High Monthly Figure, Finish up 6.1% YOY
Apr ’20 U.S. cheese stocks increased seasonally to a record high monthly figure, finishing 6.1% above previous year volumes. The YOY increase in cheese stocks was the first experienced throughout the past eight months and the largest experienced throughout the past 15 months on a percentage basis. American cheese stocks increased 6.8% YOY throughout the month while other-than-American cheese stocks finished 5.1% higher on a YOY basis. The MOM increase in cheese stocks of 108.3 million pounds, or 7.9%, was the largest seasonal build on record, finishing significantly above the ten year average March – April seasonal build of 19.6 million pounds, or 1.7%.
On a days of usage basis, Apr ’20 U.S. cheese stocks also finished higher YOY. When assuming 12-month rolling average YOY changes in usage rates and known stock values for the month of April, cheese stocks on a days of usage basis increased YOY for the third time in the past four months, finishing up 5.5%.
Combined Dairy Product Stocks – Mar ’20 Stocks Reach a Record High Seasonal Level
Combined stocks of butter, cheese, dry whey and nonfat dry milk finished 3.9% higher on a YOY basis during Mar ’20, increasing for the second consecutive month. Combined dairy product stocks reached a record high seasonal level, finishing 6.6% above three year average seasonal figures.
Combined stocks of butter, cheese, dry whey and NFDM are projected to remain at a record high seasonal level throughout Apr ’20 when using actual butter and cheese stock figures and previous month YOY changes in dry whey and NFDM stocks, increasing by an estimated 10.3%. The Apr ’20 projected YOY increase in combined stocks would be the largest experienced throughout the past 27 months on a percentage basis. Apr ’20 dry whey and NFDM stock figures are scheduled to be available Jun 4th.