U.S. Dairy Commercial Disappearance Update – May ’20
Executive Summary
U.S. dairy commercial disappearance figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Mar ’20. Highlights from the updated report include:
U.S. commercial disappearance for milk used in all products on a skim-solids basis declined on a YOY basis for the second consecutive month during Mar ’20, finishing down 0.4%. Domestic demand declined 1.6% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 4.5% YOY increase in export demand.
’18-’19 annual commercial disappearance for milk used in all products on a skim-solids basis declined 0.6% YOY from the record high levels experienced throughout the previous production season, despite domestic demand increasing 2.5%, reaching the highest annual figure on record. ’19-’20 YTD commercial disappearance for milk used in all products on a skim-solids basis has rebounded by 1.3% throughout the first half of the production season, despite the recently experienced declines.
Butter – Disappearance Reaches a Record High Seasonal Level, Finishes up 16.5% YOY
U.S. butter commercial disappearance increased 16.5% on a YOY basis during Mar ’20, finishing higher for the first time in the past three months and reaching a record high seasonal level. Domestic butter demand increased 17.1% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 6.3% YOY decline in export demand.
’18-’19 annual butter disappearance finished 3.5% higher YOY, reaching a record high level. Domestic disappearance increased 4.5%, also reaching the highest annual figure on record. ’19-’20 YTD butter disappearance has declined by 1.0% throughout the first half of the production season, however, despite the most recent increase.
U.S. butter production and import figures outpaced domestic use and export figures during Mar ’20, resulting in stocks increasing seasonally to an eight month high level. Butter stocks typically reach seasonal low levels throughout the months of November and December, prior to increasing throughout the first half of the calendar year.
Cheese – Disappearance Reaches a Record High Seasonal Level, Finishes up 0.5% YOY
U.S. cheese commercial disappearance increased 0.5% on a YOY basis during Mar ’20, finishing higher for the first time in the past five months and reaching a record high seasonal level. American cheese disappearance increased 2.2% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 0.7% YOY decline in other-than-American cheese disappearance. Domestic cheese demand increased 1.3% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 10.3% YOY decline in export demand.
’18-’19 annual cheese disappearance increased 2.2% to a record annual high as domestic demand increased 2.2%, also reaching the highest figure on record. ’19-’20 YTD cheese disappearance has declined by 0.3% throughout the first half of the production season, however.
U.S. cheese production and import figures outpaced domestic use and export figures during Mar ’20, resulting in stocks increasing to a six month high level.
Dry Whey – Disappearance Increases 3.8% YOY on Strong Export Demand
U.S. dry whey commercial disappearance increased 3.8% on a YOY basis during Mar ’20, finishing higher for the third time in the past four months. Dry whey export demand increased 8.8% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 0.2% decline in domestic demand.
’18-’19 annual dry whey disappearance declined 9.7% YOY from the ten year high level experienced throughout the previous production season, finishing at a four year low level, overall. Domestic disappearance increased 9.0% YOY, however, reaching a three year high level. ’19-’20 YTD dry whey disappearance has rebounded by 8.8% throughout the first half of the production season.
U.S. dry whey domestic use and export figures outpaced production and import figures during Mar ’20, resulting in stocks declining from the previous month.
WPC – Disappearance Declines to a Three and a Half Year Low Level, Finishes Down 19.8% YOY
U.S. whey protein concentrate (WPC) commercial disappearance declined 19.8% on a YOY basis during Mar ’20, finishing lower for the 12th time in the past 14 months and reaching a three and a half year low level, overall. Domestic WPC demand declined 33.3% on a YOY basis throughout the month while export demand declined 2.9% YOY.
’18-’19 annual WPC disappearance declined 5.8% YOY from the record high level experienced throughout the previous production season. Domestic disappearance increased 33.3% YOY, however, reaching a four year high level. ’19-’20 YTD WPC disappearance has declined by an additional 4.6% on a YOY basis throughout the first half of the production season.
U.S. WPC production and import figures outpaced domestic use and export figures during Mar ’20, resulting in stocks increasing to a four month high level.
NFDM/SMP – Disappearance Declines to a Six Year Seasonal Low Level, Finishes Down 22.6% YOY
U.S. nonfat dry milk (NFDM) and skim milk powder (SMP) commercial disappearance declined 22.6% on a YOY basis during Mar ’20, finishing lower for the third consecutive month and reaching a six year seasonal low level. Domestic NFDM/SMP demand declined 55.8% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 3.6% YOY increase in export demand.
’18-’19 annual NFDM/SMP disappearance declined 2.4% YOY from the record high level experienced throughout the previous production season, despite finishing 10.0% higher on a YOY basis throughout the final third of the production season. Domestic disappearance increased 10.9%, however, rebounding from the 11 year low experienced throughout the previous production season. ’19-’20 YTD NFDM/SMP disappearance has declined by an additional 0.4% throughout the first half of the production season.
U.S. NFDM/SMP production and import figures outpaced domestic use and export figures during Mar ’20, resulting in stocks increasing to a record high monthly level.
On an absolute basis, Mar ’20 domestic commercial disappearance increased most significantly on a YOY basis for butter while declining most significantly for NFDM/SMP. International commercial disappearance increased most significantly on a YOY basis for NFDM/SMP while cheese export demand finished most significantly lower YOY.
Fluid Milk – Total Milk Sales Remain at a Record Low Seasonal Level, Finish Down 2.8% YOY
U.S. fluid milk sales declined on a YOY basis for the 21st time in the past 22 months during Feb ’20, finishing down 2.8% and reaching a record low seasonal level. Sales of fat-free milk sales remained particularly weak, declining by 13.6% on a YOY basis.
’18-’19 annual total fluid milk sales declined to a record low level for the tenth consecutive year, finishing down 1.5%, as whole milk sales increased to an 11 year high but fat-free milk sales declined to the lowest figure on record, down over 50% from levels experienced ten years ago. ’19-’20 YTD total fluid milk sales have declined by an additional 3.2% on a YOY basis throughout the first five months of the production season.
Fat consumed within U.S. fluid milk declined on a YOY basis for the seventh consecutive month during Feb ’20, finishing down 1.4%. ’18-’19 annual total fat consumed within fluid milk declined 0.3% on a YOY basis, reaching a four year low level, while ’19-’20 YTD figures have declined by an additional 2.1% on a YOY basis throughout the first five months of the production season.
- U.S. commercial disappearance for milk used in all products increased 4.2% YOY on a milk-fat basis during Mar ’20, reaching a record high seasonal level, but finished 0.4% lower YOY on a skim-solids basis. Domestic demand increased 4.6% YOY on a milk-fat basis but declined by 1.6% YOY on a skim-solids basis throughout the month.
- Butter and cheese commercial disappearance each reached record high seasonal levels throughout Mar ’20, increasing by 16.5% and 0.5% on a YOY basis, respectively. Mar ’20 dry whey commercial disappearance also finished higher on a YOY basis throughout the month however whey protein concentrate commercial disappearance declined to a three and a half year low level. Nonfat dry milk / skim milk powder commercial disappearance declined 22.6% on a YOY basis throughout the month, reaching a six year seasonal low level.
- U.S. fluid milk sales declined on a YOY basis for the 21st time in the past 22 months during Feb ’20, finishing down 2.8% and reaching a record low seasonal level.
U.S. commercial disappearance for milk used in all products on a skim-solids basis declined on a YOY basis for the second consecutive month during Mar ’20, finishing down 0.4%. Domestic demand declined 1.6% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 4.5% YOY increase in export demand.
’18-’19 annual commercial disappearance for milk used in all products on a skim-solids basis declined 0.6% YOY from the record high levels experienced throughout the previous production season, despite domestic demand increasing 2.5%, reaching the highest annual figure on record. ’19-’20 YTD commercial disappearance for milk used in all products on a skim-solids basis has rebounded by 1.3% throughout the first half of the production season, despite the recently experienced declines.
Butter – Disappearance Reaches a Record High Seasonal Level, Finishes up 16.5% YOY
U.S. butter commercial disappearance increased 16.5% on a YOY basis during Mar ’20, finishing higher for the first time in the past three months and reaching a record high seasonal level. Domestic butter demand increased 17.1% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 6.3% YOY decline in export demand.
’18-’19 annual butter disappearance finished 3.5% higher YOY, reaching a record high level. Domestic disappearance increased 4.5%, also reaching the highest annual figure on record. ’19-’20 YTD butter disappearance has declined by 1.0% throughout the first half of the production season, however, despite the most recent increase.
U.S. butter production and import figures outpaced domestic use and export figures during Mar ’20, resulting in stocks increasing seasonally to an eight month high level. Butter stocks typically reach seasonal low levels throughout the months of November and December, prior to increasing throughout the first half of the calendar year.
Cheese – Disappearance Reaches a Record High Seasonal Level, Finishes up 0.5% YOY
U.S. cheese commercial disappearance increased 0.5% on a YOY basis during Mar ’20, finishing higher for the first time in the past five months and reaching a record high seasonal level. American cheese disappearance increased 2.2% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 0.7% YOY decline in other-than-American cheese disappearance. Domestic cheese demand increased 1.3% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 10.3% YOY decline in export demand.
’18-’19 annual cheese disappearance increased 2.2% to a record annual high as domestic demand increased 2.2%, also reaching the highest figure on record. ’19-’20 YTD cheese disappearance has declined by 0.3% throughout the first half of the production season, however.
U.S. cheese production and import figures outpaced domestic use and export figures during Mar ’20, resulting in stocks increasing to a six month high level.
Dry Whey – Disappearance Increases 3.8% YOY on Strong Export Demand
U.S. dry whey commercial disappearance increased 3.8% on a YOY basis during Mar ’20, finishing higher for the third time in the past four months. Dry whey export demand increased 8.8% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 0.2% decline in domestic demand.
’18-’19 annual dry whey disappearance declined 9.7% YOY from the ten year high level experienced throughout the previous production season, finishing at a four year low level, overall. Domestic disappearance increased 9.0% YOY, however, reaching a three year high level. ’19-’20 YTD dry whey disappearance has rebounded by 8.8% throughout the first half of the production season.
U.S. dry whey domestic use and export figures outpaced production and import figures during Mar ’20, resulting in stocks declining from the previous month.
WPC – Disappearance Declines to a Three and a Half Year Low Level, Finishes Down 19.8% YOY
U.S. whey protein concentrate (WPC) commercial disappearance declined 19.8% on a YOY basis during Mar ’20, finishing lower for the 12th time in the past 14 months and reaching a three and a half year low level, overall. Domestic WPC demand declined 33.3% on a YOY basis throughout the month while export demand declined 2.9% YOY.
’18-’19 annual WPC disappearance declined 5.8% YOY from the record high level experienced throughout the previous production season. Domestic disappearance increased 33.3% YOY, however, reaching a four year high level. ’19-’20 YTD WPC disappearance has declined by an additional 4.6% on a YOY basis throughout the first half of the production season.
U.S. WPC production and import figures outpaced domestic use and export figures during Mar ’20, resulting in stocks increasing to a four month high level.
NFDM/SMP – Disappearance Declines to a Six Year Seasonal Low Level, Finishes Down 22.6% YOY
U.S. nonfat dry milk (NFDM) and skim milk powder (SMP) commercial disappearance declined 22.6% on a YOY basis during Mar ’20, finishing lower for the third consecutive month and reaching a six year seasonal low level. Domestic NFDM/SMP demand declined 55.8% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 3.6% YOY increase in export demand.
’18-’19 annual NFDM/SMP disappearance declined 2.4% YOY from the record high level experienced throughout the previous production season, despite finishing 10.0% higher on a YOY basis throughout the final third of the production season. Domestic disappearance increased 10.9%, however, rebounding from the 11 year low experienced throughout the previous production season. ’19-’20 YTD NFDM/SMP disappearance has declined by an additional 0.4% throughout the first half of the production season.
U.S. NFDM/SMP production and import figures outpaced domestic use and export figures during Mar ’20, resulting in stocks increasing to a record high monthly level.
On an absolute basis, Mar ’20 domestic commercial disappearance increased most significantly on a YOY basis for butter while declining most significantly for NFDM/SMP. International commercial disappearance increased most significantly on a YOY basis for NFDM/SMP while cheese export demand finished most significantly lower YOY.
Fluid Milk – Total Milk Sales Remain at a Record Low Seasonal Level, Finish Down 2.8% YOY
U.S. fluid milk sales declined on a YOY basis for the 21st time in the past 22 months during Feb ’20, finishing down 2.8% and reaching a record low seasonal level. Sales of fat-free milk sales remained particularly weak, declining by 13.6% on a YOY basis.
’18-’19 annual total fluid milk sales declined to a record low level for the tenth consecutive year, finishing down 1.5%, as whole milk sales increased to an 11 year high but fat-free milk sales declined to the lowest figure on record, down over 50% from levels experienced ten years ago. ’19-’20 YTD total fluid milk sales have declined by an additional 3.2% on a YOY basis throughout the first five months of the production season.
Fat consumed within U.S. fluid milk declined on a YOY basis for the seventh consecutive month during Feb ’20, finishing down 1.4%. ’18-’19 annual total fat consumed within fluid milk declined 0.3% on a YOY basis, reaching a four year low level, while ’19-’20 YTD figures have declined by an additional 2.1% on a YOY basis throughout the first five months of the production season.