EU-28 Milk Production Update – May ’20
Executive Summary
EU-28 milk production figures provided by Eurostat were recently updated with values spanning through Mar ’20. Highlights from the updated report include:
The Mar ’20 YOY increase in EU-28 milk production volumes was the 14th experienced in a row but the smallest experienced throughout the past four months on a percentage basis. USDA expects EU-28 milk production volumes to remain higher on a YOY basis throughout the final three quarters of the 2020 calendar year as pasture conditions are expected to continue to rebound from recently experienced drought related forage shortages. USDA is projecting a 0.4% YOY increase in EU-28 milk production volumes throughout the 2020 calendar year, slightly smaller than the 0.6% YOY increase in production volumes experienced throughout 2019.
Mar ’20 YOY increases in production on an absolute basis were led by Spain, followed by the Netherlands and Poland, while YOY declines in production on an absolute basis were led by the United Kingdom, followed by Italy. The U.K. dairy industry continues to deal with uncertainty throughout the Brexit transition period while Italy enforced nationwide travel restrictions in mid-March due to COVID-19.
YOY increases in production on a percentage basis were led by Cyprus (+9.5%), followed by Bulgaria (+7.7%) and Greece (+7.5%), while declines in production on a percentage basis were most significant within Croatia (-3.3%), followed by Italy (-2.8%) and Romania (-2.6%).
Seven of the top ten milk producing member states experienced YOY increases in milk production during Mar ’20 as production within the top ten milk producing member states increased by a weighted average of 0.7% throughout the month. The top ten EU-28 milk producing member states accounted for over 85% of the total EU-28 milk production experienced throughout the month. Overall, 20 of the 28 member states experienced YOY increases in production volumes during Mar ’20.
EU-28 beef & dairy cow slaughter finished lower on a YOY basis for the seventh time in the past nine months during Feb ’20 when normalizing for slaughter days, declining by 0.8%. YOY declines in beef & dairy cow slaughter were most significant within Germany, followed by Romania and the United Kingdom.
’18-’19 annual EU-28 bovine slaughter increased on a YOY basis for the fifth consecutive year, finishing up 0.5% to the highest figure on record, despite declining by 1.0% on a YOY basis over the second half of the production season. USDA expects the EU-28 dairy cow herd to decline 0.4% throughout the 2020 calendar year due to feed shortages stemming from the recent drought but noted additional culling rates, coupled with improved genetics, are expected to have a positive impact on future per cow productivity as lower producing animals are culled.
- EU-28 milk production finished higher on a YOY basis for the 14th consecutive month during Mar ’20, increasing 0.8% to a record high seasonal level.
- Mar ’20 YOY increases in milk production were led by Spain, followed by the Netherlands and Poland, while YOY declines in milk production were led by the United Kingdom, followed by Italy. Overall, 20 of the 28 member states experienced YOY increases in milk production throughout the month.
- EU-28 beef & dairy cow slaughter rates finished lower on a YOY basis for the seventh time in the past nine months during Feb ’20 when normalizing for slaughter days, declining by 0.8%.
The Mar ’20 YOY increase in EU-28 milk production volumes was the 14th experienced in a row but the smallest experienced throughout the past four months on a percentage basis. USDA expects EU-28 milk production volumes to remain higher on a YOY basis throughout the final three quarters of the 2020 calendar year as pasture conditions are expected to continue to rebound from recently experienced drought related forage shortages. USDA is projecting a 0.4% YOY increase in EU-28 milk production volumes throughout the 2020 calendar year, slightly smaller than the 0.6% YOY increase in production volumes experienced throughout 2019.
Mar ’20 YOY increases in production on an absolute basis were led by Spain, followed by the Netherlands and Poland, while YOY declines in production on an absolute basis were led by the United Kingdom, followed by Italy. The U.K. dairy industry continues to deal with uncertainty throughout the Brexit transition period while Italy enforced nationwide travel restrictions in mid-March due to COVID-19.
YOY increases in production on a percentage basis were led by Cyprus (+9.5%), followed by Bulgaria (+7.7%) and Greece (+7.5%), while declines in production on a percentage basis were most significant within Croatia (-3.3%), followed by Italy (-2.8%) and Romania (-2.6%).
Seven of the top ten milk producing member states experienced YOY increases in milk production during Mar ’20 as production within the top ten milk producing member states increased by a weighted average of 0.7% throughout the month. The top ten EU-28 milk producing member states accounted for over 85% of the total EU-28 milk production experienced throughout the month. Overall, 20 of the 28 member states experienced YOY increases in production volumes during Mar ’20.
EU-28 beef & dairy cow slaughter finished lower on a YOY basis for the seventh time in the past nine months during Feb ’20 when normalizing for slaughter days, declining by 0.8%. YOY declines in beef & dairy cow slaughter were most significant within Germany, followed by Romania and the United Kingdom.
’18-’19 annual EU-28 bovine slaughter increased on a YOY basis for the fifth consecutive year, finishing up 0.5% to the highest figure on record, despite declining by 1.0% on a YOY basis over the second half of the production season. USDA expects the EU-28 dairy cow herd to decline 0.4% throughout the 2020 calendar year due to feed shortages stemming from the recent drought but noted additional culling rates, coupled with improved genetics, are expected to have a positive impact on future per cow productivity as lower producing animals are culled.