Quarterly Australian Milk Production Update – Apr ’20
Executive Summary
Australian milk production figures provided by Dairy Australia were recently updated with values spanning through the end of the first three quarters of the ’19-’20 production season. Highlights from the updated report include:
’17-’18 annual Australian milk production increased 3.0% from the 20 year low experienced throughout the previous production season as improved rainfall led to better pasture growth however ’18-’19 annual production declined 5.7% as dry weather conditions returned, reaching a 24 year low level, overall. ’19-’20 YTD production volumes have declined by an additional 2.1% on a YOY basis throughout the first three quarters of the production season, despite the recently experienced increases in production.
Australian milk production volumes had declined on a YOY basis over 18 consecutive months prior to increasing on a YOY basis over the past four months. Declines in Australian milk production occurred throughout the peak production months of September – November, which have accounted for nearly a third of annual production volumes over the past five years.
Recently experienced low pasture volumes and supplementary feed on hand contributed to the Australian dairy cow herd contracting by 3.3% throughout 2019, finishing at the lowest figure on record. USDA expects the Australian dairy cow herd will decline by an additional 1.7% throughout 2020, despite projected improvements in pasture conditions, due to biological lags in herd rebuilding.
Australia is the fourth largest global dairy exporter, trailing only New Zealand, the EU-28 and the U.S. Of the top five dairy exporting regions accounting for over 90% of total global dairy exports, Australia accounts for 3.0% of total combined milk production and 5.2% of combined butter, cheese, nonfat dry milk (NFDM) and whole milk powder (WMP) export volumes throughout 2019.
The bulk of Australian dairy exports are in the form of cheese and NFDM. Australia was the fourth largest exporter of both cheese and NFDM throughout 2019, accounting for 7.9% of global cheese export volumes and 5.3% of global NFDM export volumes. From a global perspective, cheese and NFDM markets may be most affected by a continued rebound in Australian milk production.
- Australian milk production increased on a YOY basis for the fourth consecutive month during Mar ’20, finishing up 7.1%. The Mar ’20 YOY increase in milk production volumes was the largest experienced throughout the past five years on a percentage basis.
- Recently experienced low pasture volumes and supplementary feed on hand contributed to the Australian dairy cow herd contracting by 3.3% throughout 2019, finishing at the lowest figure on record. USDA expects the Australian dairy cow herd will decline by an additional 1.7% throughout 2020.
- Australia is the fourth largest global dairy exporter, accounting for 5.2% of combined butter, cheese, nonfat dry milk and whole milk powder exports throughout 2019. The bulk of Australian dairy exports are in the form of cheese and nonfat dry milk. From a global perspective, cheese and nonfat dry milk markets may be most affected by a continued rebound in Australian milk production.
’17-’18 annual Australian milk production increased 3.0% from the 20 year low experienced throughout the previous production season as improved rainfall led to better pasture growth however ’18-’19 annual production declined 5.7% as dry weather conditions returned, reaching a 24 year low level, overall. ’19-’20 YTD production volumes have declined by an additional 2.1% on a YOY basis throughout the first three quarters of the production season, despite the recently experienced increases in production.
Australian milk production volumes had declined on a YOY basis over 18 consecutive months prior to increasing on a YOY basis over the past four months. Declines in Australian milk production occurred throughout the peak production months of September – November, which have accounted for nearly a third of annual production volumes over the past five years.
Recently experienced low pasture volumes and supplementary feed on hand contributed to the Australian dairy cow herd contracting by 3.3% throughout 2019, finishing at the lowest figure on record. USDA expects the Australian dairy cow herd will decline by an additional 1.7% throughout 2020, despite projected improvements in pasture conditions, due to biological lags in herd rebuilding.
Australia is the fourth largest global dairy exporter, trailing only New Zealand, the EU-28 and the U.S. Of the top five dairy exporting regions accounting for over 90% of total global dairy exports, Australia accounts for 3.0% of total combined milk production and 5.2% of combined butter, cheese, nonfat dry milk (NFDM) and whole milk powder (WMP) export volumes throughout 2019.
The bulk of Australian dairy exports are in the form of cheese and NFDM. Australia was the fourth largest exporter of both cheese and NFDM throughout 2019, accounting for 7.9% of global cheese export volumes and 5.3% of global NFDM export volumes. From a global perspective, cheese and NFDM markets may be most affected by a continued rebound in Australian milk production.