U.S. Dairy Cold Storage Update – Apr ’20
Executive Summary
U.S. cold storage figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Mar ’20. Highlights from the updated report include:
According to the USDA, Mar ’20 U.S. butter stocks increased seasonally to an eight month high level while remaining higher on a YOY basis for the ninth consecutive month, finishing up 14.8% to a 27 year seasonal high level. The MOM increase in butter stocks of 7.7 million pounds, or 2.6%, was largely consistent with the ten year average February – March seasonal build of 8.8 million pounds, or 4.2%. Butter stocks typically reach seasonal low levels throughout the months of November and December, prior to increasing throughout the first half of the calendar year.
On a days of usage basis, Mar ’20 U.S. butter stocks also finished higher YOY. When assuming 12-month rolling average YOY changes in usage rates and known stock values for the month of March, butter stocks on a days of usage basis increased YOY for the third consecutive month, finishing up 16.6%.
Cheese – Stocks Remain Lower YOY for the Seventh Consecutive Month, Finish Down 0.8% YOY
Mar ’20 U.S. cheese stocks increased seasonally to a six month high level but remained lower on a YOY basis for the seventh consecutive month, finishing 0.8% below the previous year. Despite declining on a YOY basis, Mar ’20 U.S. cheese stocks remained 3.7% above three year average seasonal levels. American cheese stocks declined 1.2% YOY throughout the month while other-than-American cheese stocks finished 0.2% lower on a YOY basis. The MOM increase in cheese stocks of 11.3 million pounds, or 0.8%, was largely consistent with the ten year average February – March seasonal build of 13.8 million pounds, or 1.2%.
On a days of usage basis, Mar ’20 U.S. cheese stocks also remained lower YOY. When assuming 12-month rolling average YOY changes in usage rates and known stock values for the month of March, cheese stocks on a days of usage basis declined YOY for the sixth time in the past seven months, finishing down 1.9%.
Combined Dairy Product Stocks – Feb ’20 Stocks Reach a Record High Seasonal Level
Combined stocks of butter, cheese, dry whey and nonfat dry milk finished 3.3% higher on a YOY basis during Feb ’20, increasing YOY for the first time in the past five months. Combined dairy product stocks reached a record high seasonal level, finishing 6.5% above three year average seasonal figures.
Combined stocks of butter, cheese, dry whey and NFDM are projected to remain at a record high seasonal level throughout Mar ’20 when using actual butter and cheese stock figures and previous month YOY changes in dry whey and NFDM stocks, increasing by an estimated 2.1%. Mar ’20 dry whey and NFDM stock figures are scheduled to be available May 5th.
- U.S. butter stocks remained higher on a YOY basis for the ninth consecutive month during Mar ’20, finishing up 14.8% and reaching a 27 year seasonal high level.
- Mar ’20 U.S. cheese stocks remained lower on a YOY basis for the seventh consecutive month, finishing down 0.8%. Cheese stocks remained 3.7% above three year average seasonal levels, however.
According to the USDA, Mar ’20 U.S. butter stocks increased seasonally to an eight month high level while remaining higher on a YOY basis for the ninth consecutive month, finishing up 14.8% to a 27 year seasonal high level. The MOM increase in butter stocks of 7.7 million pounds, or 2.6%, was largely consistent with the ten year average February – March seasonal build of 8.8 million pounds, or 4.2%. Butter stocks typically reach seasonal low levels throughout the months of November and December, prior to increasing throughout the first half of the calendar year.
On a days of usage basis, Mar ’20 U.S. butter stocks also finished higher YOY. When assuming 12-month rolling average YOY changes in usage rates and known stock values for the month of March, butter stocks on a days of usage basis increased YOY for the third consecutive month, finishing up 16.6%.
Cheese – Stocks Remain Lower YOY for the Seventh Consecutive Month, Finish Down 0.8% YOY
Mar ’20 U.S. cheese stocks increased seasonally to a six month high level but remained lower on a YOY basis for the seventh consecutive month, finishing 0.8% below the previous year. Despite declining on a YOY basis, Mar ’20 U.S. cheese stocks remained 3.7% above three year average seasonal levels. American cheese stocks declined 1.2% YOY throughout the month while other-than-American cheese stocks finished 0.2% lower on a YOY basis. The MOM increase in cheese stocks of 11.3 million pounds, or 0.8%, was largely consistent with the ten year average February – March seasonal build of 13.8 million pounds, or 1.2%.
On a days of usage basis, Mar ’20 U.S. cheese stocks also remained lower YOY. When assuming 12-month rolling average YOY changes in usage rates and known stock values for the month of March, cheese stocks on a days of usage basis declined YOY for the sixth time in the past seven months, finishing down 1.9%.
Combined Dairy Product Stocks – Feb ’20 Stocks Reach a Record High Seasonal Level
Combined stocks of butter, cheese, dry whey and nonfat dry milk finished 3.3% higher on a YOY basis during Feb ’20, increasing YOY for the first time in the past five months. Combined dairy product stocks reached a record high seasonal level, finishing 6.5% above three year average seasonal figures.
Combined stocks of butter, cheese, dry whey and NFDM are projected to remain at a record high seasonal level throughout Mar ’20 when using actual butter and cheese stock figures and previous month YOY changes in dry whey and NFDM stocks, increasing by an estimated 2.1%. Mar ’20 dry whey and NFDM stock figures are scheduled to be available May 5th.