U.S. Milk Production Update – Apr ’20
Executive Summary
U.S. milk production figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Mar ’20. Highlights from the updated report include:
U.S. milk production volumes had finished higher on a YOY basis over 61 consecutive months from Jan ’14 – Jan ‘19, reaching the longest period of consecutive growth on record, prior to declining by a total of 0.3% from Mar ’19 – Jun ’19. Milk production volumes rebounded throughout more recent months, however, reaching a three year high YOY growth rate throughout Mar ’20.
YOY increases in production on a percentage basis were led by Texas (+8.6%), followed by Colorado (+7.5%) and Kansas (+7.5%). Production finished most significantly lower YOY on a percentage basis within Vermont (-0.9%) and Florida (-0.9%). Overall, 20 of the 24 states milk production figures are provided for experienced YOY increases in production throughout the month.
California milk production volumes increased on a YOY basis for the fifth time in the past six months during Mar ’20, finishing up 1.3%. California accounted for 18.8% of total U.S. milk production volumes throughout the month, leading all states.
Nine of the top ten largest milk producing states experienced YOY gains in production throughout Mar ’20, as milk production within the top ten milk producing states finished higher by a weighted average of 2.3% throughout the month. The aforementioned states accounted for nearly three quarters of the total U.S. milk production experienced during Mar ’20. Production volumes outside of the top ten largest milk producing states increased 1.9% on a YOY basis throughout the month.
YOY increases in milk production on an absolute basis were led by Texas, followed by Idaho and California, while YOY declines in production on an absolute basis were most significant throughout Arizona.
The Feb ’20 U.S. milk cow herd figure was revised 5,000 head higher than previously stated while the Mar ’20 herd increased an additional 5,000 head from the February revised figure, reaching a 19 month high level. The U.S. milk cow herd had reached a three year low level during Jul ’19 prior to rebounding by a total of 65,000 head throughout the past eight months. The U.S. milk cow herd currently stands at 9.38 million head, up 47,000 head from the previous year but remaining 58,000 head below the 23 year high level experienced during Jan ’18.
The U.S. milk per cow yield increased on a YOY basis for the 53rd consecutive month throughout Mar ’20, finishing 1.7% above the previous year. The YOY increase in milk per cow yields was the largest experienced throughout the past 14 months. Yields experienced throughout the Midwestern states of Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa and Illinois finished 1.8% higher on a YOY basis while yields experienced throughout the Western states of California, Idaho, Washington and Oregon increased 0.9% YOY.
Month-over-month increases in milk cow herds experienced throughout Texas, New York, Michigan, Iowa, Arizona, Kansas and Utah more than offset MOM declines in the Washington, Oregon, New Mexico, Florida and Virginia milk cow herds throughout Mar ’20.
YOY increases in milk cow herds were led by Texas, followed by Idaho, while Wisconsin and Pennsylvania experienced the largest YOY declines in their milk cow herds throughout the month.
- U.S. milk production increased 2.2% on a YOY basis throughout Mar ’20, reaching a record high monthly level. The YOY increase in milk production was the ninth experienced in a row and the largest experienced throughout the past three years.
- The U.S. milk cow herd reached a 19 month high level during Mar ’20, increasing 5,000 head from the previous month’s revised figure. Milk cow herd figures have increased by a total of 65,000 head throughout the past eight months, rebounding from the three year low level experienced throughout Jul ’19.
- U.S. milk per cow yields increased on a YOY basis for the 53rd consecutive month throughout Mar ’20, finishing 1.7% above the previous year. The YOY increase in milk per cow yields was the largest experienced throughout the past 14 months.
U.S. milk production volumes had finished higher on a YOY basis over 61 consecutive months from Jan ’14 – Jan ‘19, reaching the longest period of consecutive growth on record, prior to declining by a total of 0.3% from Mar ’19 – Jun ’19. Milk production volumes rebounded throughout more recent months, however, reaching a three year high YOY growth rate throughout Mar ’20.
YOY increases in production on a percentage basis were led by Texas (+8.6%), followed by Colorado (+7.5%) and Kansas (+7.5%). Production finished most significantly lower YOY on a percentage basis within Vermont (-0.9%) and Florida (-0.9%). Overall, 20 of the 24 states milk production figures are provided for experienced YOY increases in production throughout the month.
California milk production volumes increased on a YOY basis for the fifth time in the past six months during Mar ’20, finishing up 1.3%. California accounted for 18.8% of total U.S. milk production volumes throughout the month, leading all states.
Nine of the top ten largest milk producing states experienced YOY gains in production throughout Mar ’20, as milk production within the top ten milk producing states finished higher by a weighted average of 2.3% throughout the month. The aforementioned states accounted for nearly three quarters of the total U.S. milk production experienced during Mar ’20. Production volumes outside of the top ten largest milk producing states increased 1.9% on a YOY basis throughout the month.
YOY increases in milk production on an absolute basis were led by Texas, followed by Idaho and California, while YOY declines in production on an absolute basis were most significant throughout Arizona.
The Feb ’20 U.S. milk cow herd figure was revised 5,000 head higher than previously stated while the Mar ’20 herd increased an additional 5,000 head from the February revised figure, reaching a 19 month high level. The U.S. milk cow herd had reached a three year low level during Jul ’19 prior to rebounding by a total of 65,000 head throughout the past eight months. The U.S. milk cow herd currently stands at 9.38 million head, up 47,000 head from the previous year but remaining 58,000 head below the 23 year high level experienced during Jan ’18.
The U.S. milk per cow yield increased on a YOY basis for the 53rd consecutive month throughout Mar ’20, finishing 1.7% above the previous year. The YOY increase in milk per cow yields was the largest experienced throughout the past 14 months. Yields experienced throughout the Midwestern states of Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa and Illinois finished 1.8% higher on a YOY basis while yields experienced throughout the Western states of California, Idaho, Washington and Oregon increased 0.9% YOY.
Month-over-month increases in milk cow herds experienced throughout Texas, New York, Michigan, Iowa, Arizona, Kansas and Utah more than offset MOM declines in the Washington, Oregon, New Mexico, Florida and Virginia milk cow herds throughout Mar ’20.
YOY increases in milk cow herds were led by Texas, followed by Idaho, while Wisconsin and Pennsylvania experienced the largest YOY declines in their milk cow herds throughout the month.