U.S. Dairy Commercial Disappearance Update – Mar ’20
Executive Summary
U.S. dairy commercial disappearance figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Jan ’20. Highlights from the updated report include:
U.S. commercial disappearance for milk used in all products on a skim-solids basis increased on a YOY basis for the fourth consecutive month during Jan ’20, finishing up 0.1%. Export demand increased 24.3% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 4.7% YOY decline in domestic demand.
’18-’19 annual commercial disappearance for milk used in all products on a skim-solids basis declined 0.6% YOY from the record high levels experienced throughout the previous production season, despite domestic demand increasing 2.5%, reaching the highest annual figure on record. ’19-’20 YTD commercial disappearance for milk used in all products on a skim-solids basis has rebounded by 1.9% throughout the first third of the production season.
Butter – Disappearance Declines YOY for the Second Time in Three Months, Finishes Down 13.5%
U.S. butter commercial disappearance declined 13.5% on a YOY basis during Jan ’20, finishing lower for the second time in the past three months. Domestic butter demand declined 13.3% on a YOY basis throughout the month while export demand finished 18.3% lower.
’18-’19 annual butter disappearance finished 2.1% higher YOY, reaching a record high level. Domestic disappearance increased 3.1%, also reaching the highest annual figure on record. ’19-’20 YTD butter disappearance has declined by 1.9% throughout the first third of the production season, however.
U.S. butter production and import figures outpaced domestic use and export figures during Jan ’20, resulting in stocks rebounding seasonally to a four month high level. Butter stocks typically reach seasonal low levels throughout the months of November and December, prior to increasing throughout the first half of the calendar year.
Cheese – Disappearance Declines 0.2% YOY on Weak American Cheese Demand
U.S. cheese commercial disappearance declined 0.2% on a YOY basis during Jan ’20, finishing lower for the second time in the past three months. American cheese disappearance declined 6.5% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 4.1% YOY increase in other-than-American cheese disappearance. Domestic cheese demand declined 0.2% YOY throughout the month, more than offsetting a 0.4% YOY increase in export demand.
’18-’19 annual cheese disappearance increased 2.2% to a record annual high as domestic demand increased 2.2%, also reaching the highest figure on record. ’19-’20 YTD cheese disappearance has increased by an additional 0.3% throughout the first third of the production season, despite the most recent decline.
U.S. cheese production and import figures outpaced domestic use and export figures during Jan ’20, resulting in stocks rebounding from the 22 month low level experienced throughout the previous month.
Dry Whey – Disappearance Increases 24.3% YOY on Strong Domestic Demand
U.S. dry whey commercial disappearance increased 24.3% on a YOY basis during Jan ’20, finishing higher for the fourth time in the past five months. Domestic dry whey demand increased 47.8% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 5.8% decline in export demand. The YOY increase in domestic dry whey demand was the ninth experienced in a row while the YOY decline in dry whey export demand was the 17th experienced in a row.
’18-’19 annual dry whey disappearance declined 9.9% YOY from the ten year high level experienced throughout the previous production season, finishing at a four year low level. Domestic disappearance increased 8.6% YOY, however, reaching a three year high level. ’19-’20 YTD dry whey disappearance has rebounded by 14.1% throughout the first third of the production season.
U.S. dry whey domestic use and export figures outpaced production and import figures during Jan ’20, resulting in stocks declining to an eight month low level.
WPC – Disappearance Declines YOY for the Tenth Time in the Past 12 Months, Finishes Down 7.6%
U.S. whey protein concentrate (WPC) commercial disappearance declined 7.6% on a YOY basis during Jan ’20, finishing lower on a YOY basis for the tenth time in the past 12 months. Domestic WPC demand declined 34.9% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 60.3% decline in export demand.
’18-’19 annual WPC disappearance declined 5.9% YOY from the record high level experienced throughout the previous production season. Domestic disappearance increased 33.2% YOY, however, reaching a four year high level. ’19-’20 YTD WPC disappearance has declined by an additional 1.3% on a YOY basis throughout the first third of the production season.
U.S. WPC domestic use and export figures outpaced production and import figures during Jan ’20, resulting in stocks declining slightly for the second consecutive month.
NFDM/SMP – Disappearance Declines to a Four Year Seasonal Low Level, Finishes Down 5.1% YOY
U.S. nonfat dry milk (NFDM) and skim milk powder (SMP) commercial disappearance declined 5.1% on a YOY basis during Jan ’20, reaching a four year seasonal low level. Domestic NFDM/SMP demand declined 58.3% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 40.8% increase in export demand.
’18-’19 annual NFDM/SMP disappearance declined 4.2% YOY from the record high level experienced throughout the previous production season, despite finishing 5.1% higher on a YOY basis throughout the final third of the production season. Domestic disappearance increased 5.8%, rebounding from the 11 year low experienced throughout the previous production season. ’19-’20 YTD NFDM/SMP disappearance has rebounded by 7.0% throughout the first third of the production season, despite the most recent decline.
U.S. NFDM/SMP production and import figures outpaced domestic use and export figures during Jan ’20, resulting in stocks increasing to a six month high level.
On an absolute basis, Jan ’20 domestic commercial disappearance increased most significantly on a YOY basis for dry whey while declining most significantly for NFDM/SMP. International commercial disappearance increased most significantly on a YOY basis for NFDM/SMP while dry whey export demand finished most significantly lower YOY.
Fluid Milk – Total Milk Sales Remain at a Record Low Seasonal Level, Finish Down 2.5% YOY
U.S. fluid milk sales declined on a YOY basis for the 19th time in the past 20 months during Dec ’19, finishing down 2.5% and reaching a record low seasonal level. Sales of fat-free milk sales remained particularly weak, declining by 13.9% on a YOY basis and reaching the lowest monthly figure on record.
’18-’19 annual total fluid milk sales declined to a record low level for the tenth consecutive year, finishing down 1.5%, as whole milk sales increased to an 11 year high but fat-free milk sales declined to the lowest figure on record, down over 50% from levels experienced ten years ago. ’19-’20 YTD total fluid milk sales have declined by an additional 4.7% on a YOY basis throughout the first quarter of the production season.
Fat consumed within U.S. fluid milk declined on a YOY basis for the fifth consecutive month during Dec ’19, finishing down 1.2%. ’18-’19 annual total fat consumed within fluid milk declined 0.3% on a YOY basis, reaching a four year low level, while ’19-’20 YTD figures have declined by an additional 3.9% on a YOY basis throughout the first quarter of the production season.
- U.S. commercial disappearance for milk used in all products declined 1.6% YOY on a milk-fat basis but finished 0.1% higher YOY on a skim-solids basis during Jan ’20. Domestic demand declined 1.6% YOY on a milk-fat basis and 4.7% YOY on a skim-solids basis throughout the month.
- U.S. cheese and butter disappearance each declined on a YOY basis for the second time in the past three months during Jan ’20 while whey protein concentrate finished lower on a YOY basis for the tenth time in the past 12 months. Nonfat dry milk/skim milk powder disappearance declined to a four year seasonal low level however dry whey disappearance finished higher on a YOY basis for the fourth time in the past five months as domestic demand remained strong.
- U.S. fluid milk sales declined on a YOY basis for the 19th time in the past 20 months during Dec ’19, finishing down 2.5% and reaching a record low seasonal level.
U.S. commercial disappearance for milk used in all products on a skim-solids basis increased on a YOY basis for the fourth consecutive month during Jan ’20, finishing up 0.1%. Export demand increased 24.3% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 4.7% YOY decline in domestic demand.
’18-’19 annual commercial disappearance for milk used in all products on a skim-solids basis declined 0.6% YOY from the record high levels experienced throughout the previous production season, despite domestic demand increasing 2.5%, reaching the highest annual figure on record. ’19-’20 YTD commercial disappearance for milk used in all products on a skim-solids basis has rebounded by 1.9% throughout the first third of the production season.
Butter – Disappearance Declines YOY for the Second Time in Three Months, Finishes Down 13.5%
U.S. butter commercial disappearance declined 13.5% on a YOY basis during Jan ’20, finishing lower for the second time in the past three months. Domestic butter demand declined 13.3% on a YOY basis throughout the month while export demand finished 18.3% lower.
’18-’19 annual butter disappearance finished 2.1% higher YOY, reaching a record high level. Domestic disappearance increased 3.1%, also reaching the highest annual figure on record. ’19-’20 YTD butter disappearance has declined by 1.9% throughout the first third of the production season, however.
U.S. butter production and import figures outpaced domestic use and export figures during Jan ’20, resulting in stocks rebounding seasonally to a four month high level. Butter stocks typically reach seasonal low levels throughout the months of November and December, prior to increasing throughout the first half of the calendar year.
Cheese – Disappearance Declines 0.2% YOY on Weak American Cheese Demand
U.S. cheese commercial disappearance declined 0.2% on a YOY basis during Jan ’20, finishing lower for the second time in the past three months. American cheese disappearance declined 6.5% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 4.1% YOY increase in other-than-American cheese disappearance. Domestic cheese demand declined 0.2% YOY throughout the month, more than offsetting a 0.4% YOY increase in export demand.
’18-’19 annual cheese disappearance increased 2.2% to a record annual high as domestic demand increased 2.2%, also reaching the highest figure on record. ’19-’20 YTD cheese disappearance has increased by an additional 0.3% throughout the first third of the production season, despite the most recent decline.
U.S. cheese production and import figures outpaced domestic use and export figures during Jan ’20, resulting in stocks rebounding from the 22 month low level experienced throughout the previous month.
Dry Whey – Disappearance Increases 24.3% YOY on Strong Domestic Demand
U.S. dry whey commercial disappearance increased 24.3% on a YOY basis during Jan ’20, finishing higher for the fourth time in the past five months. Domestic dry whey demand increased 47.8% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 5.8% decline in export demand. The YOY increase in domestic dry whey demand was the ninth experienced in a row while the YOY decline in dry whey export demand was the 17th experienced in a row.
’18-’19 annual dry whey disappearance declined 9.9% YOY from the ten year high level experienced throughout the previous production season, finishing at a four year low level. Domestic disappearance increased 8.6% YOY, however, reaching a three year high level. ’19-’20 YTD dry whey disappearance has rebounded by 14.1% throughout the first third of the production season.
U.S. dry whey domestic use and export figures outpaced production and import figures during Jan ’20, resulting in stocks declining to an eight month low level.
WPC – Disappearance Declines YOY for the Tenth Time in the Past 12 Months, Finishes Down 7.6%
U.S. whey protein concentrate (WPC) commercial disappearance declined 7.6% on a YOY basis during Jan ’20, finishing lower on a YOY basis for the tenth time in the past 12 months. Domestic WPC demand declined 34.9% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 60.3% decline in export demand.
’18-’19 annual WPC disappearance declined 5.9% YOY from the record high level experienced throughout the previous production season. Domestic disappearance increased 33.2% YOY, however, reaching a four year high level. ’19-’20 YTD WPC disappearance has declined by an additional 1.3% on a YOY basis throughout the first third of the production season.
U.S. WPC domestic use and export figures outpaced production and import figures during Jan ’20, resulting in stocks declining slightly for the second consecutive month.
NFDM/SMP – Disappearance Declines to a Four Year Seasonal Low Level, Finishes Down 5.1% YOY
U.S. nonfat dry milk (NFDM) and skim milk powder (SMP) commercial disappearance declined 5.1% on a YOY basis during Jan ’20, reaching a four year seasonal low level. Domestic NFDM/SMP demand declined 58.3% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 40.8% increase in export demand.
’18-’19 annual NFDM/SMP disappearance declined 4.2% YOY from the record high level experienced throughout the previous production season, despite finishing 5.1% higher on a YOY basis throughout the final third of the production season. Domestic disappearance increased 5.8%, rebounding from the 11 year low experienced throughout the previous production season. ’19-’20 YTD NFDM/SMP disappearance has rebounded by 7.0% throughout the first third of the production season, despite the most recent decline.
U.S. NFDM/SMP production and import figures outpaced domestic use and export figures during Jan ’20, resulting in stocks increasing to a six month high level.
On an absolute basis, Jan ’20 domestic commercial disappearance increased most significantly on a YOY basis for dry whey while declining most significantly for NFDM/SMP. International commercial disappearance increased most significantly on a YOY basis for NFDM/SMP while dry whey export demand finished most significantly lower YOY.
Fluid Milk – Total Milk Sales Remain at a Record Low Seasonal Level, Finish Down 2.5% YOY
U.S. fluid milk sales declined on a YOY basis for the 19th time in the past 20 months during Dec ’19, finishing down 2.5% and reaching a record low seasonal level. Sales of fat-free milk sales remained particularly weak, declining by 13.9% on a YOY basis and reaching the lowest monthly figure on record.
’18-’19 annual total fluid milk sales declined to a record low level for the tenth consecutive year, finishing down 1.5%, as whole milk sales increased to an 11 year high but fat-free milk sales declined to the lowest figure on record, down over 50% from levels experienced ten years ago. ’19-’20 YTD total fluid milk sales have declined by an additional 4.7% on a YOY basis throughout the first quarter of the production season.
Fat consumed within U.S. fluid milk declined on a YOY basis for the fifth consecutive month during Dec ’19, finishing down 1.2%. ’18-’19 annual total fat consumed within fluid milk declined 0.3% on a YOY basis, reaching a four year low level, while ’19-’20 YTD figures have declined by an additional 3.9% on a YOY basis throughout the first quarter of the production season.