U.S. Milk Production Update – Jan ’20
Executive Summary
U.S. milk production figures provided by USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Dec ’19. Highlights from the updated report include:
U.S. milk production volumes had finished higher on a YOY basis over 62 consecutive months from Jan ’14 – Feb ‘19, reaching the longest period of consecutive growth on record, prior to declining by a total of 0.2% from Mar ’19 – Jul ’19. Milk production volumes rebounded throughout more recent months, however, reaching a 12 month high YOY growth rate throughout Sep ’19 and remaining higher on a YOY basis over the months of October, November and December.
YOY increases in production on a percentage basis were led by Texas (+8.9%), followed by Colorado (+5.4%) and Kansas (+4.7%). Production finished most significantly lower YOY on a percentage basis within Arizona (-6.4%), Utah (-3.6%) and Virginia (-3.1%). Overall, just 12 of the 24 states milk production figures are provided for experienced YOY increases in production throughout the month.
California milk production volumes increased on a YOY basis for the 16th time in the past 17 months during Dec ’19, finishing up 0.5%. California accounted for 18.7% of total U.S. milk production volumes throughout the month, leading all states.
Six of the top ten largest milk producing states experienced YOY gains in production throughout Dec ’19, as milk production within the top ten milk producing states finished higher by a weighted average of 1.1% throughout the month. The aforementioned states accounted for nearly three quarters of the total U.S. milk production experienced during Dec ’19. Production volumes outside of the top ten largest milk producing states declined by 0.6% YOY throughout the month, however.
YOY increases in milk production on an absolute basis were led by Texas, followed by Idaho and New York, while YOY declines in production on an absolute basis were most significant throughout Wisconsin, followed by Arizona and Pennsylvania. The YOY decline in Wisconsin production volumes was the second experienced in a row.
The Nov ’19 U.S. milk cow herd figure was revised 8,000 head higher than previously stated while the Dec ’19 herd remained flat with the November revised figure, remaining at a nine month high level. The U.S. milk cow herd had reached a three and a half year low level during Aug ’19 prior to rebounding by a total of 22,000 head throughout the past four months. The U.S. milk cow herd currently stands at 9.339 million head, which remains 14,000 head below the previous year and 99,000 head below the 23 year high level experienced during Jan ’18.
The YOY decline in milk cow numbers was offset by continually increasing U.S. milk per cow yields experienced throughout Dec ’19. The U.S. milk per cow yield increased YOY for the 50th consecutive month throughout Dec ’19, finishing 0.8% above the previous year. The YOY increase in milk per cow yields was the smallest experienced throughout the past six months on a percentage basis, however. Yields experienced throughout the Midwestern states of Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa and Illinois finished 0.5% higher on a YOY basis however yields experienced throughout the Western states of California, Idaho, Washington and Oregon declined 0.5% YOY, finishing lower for the second consecutive month.
Dec ’19 MOM increases in milk cow herds experienced throughout Texas, Kansas, Idaho, Washington, Indiana and Virginia offset MOM declines in the Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Minnesota, Michigan, New Mexico, Iowa, Colorado and Florida milk cow herds.
Dec ’19 YOY declines in milk cow herds continue to be led by Pennsylvania, followed by Arizona. Texas, Idaho and Colorado experienced the largest YOY increases in their milk cow herds throughout the month.
- U.S. milk production increased 0.7% on a YOY basis throughout Dec ’19, reaching a record high seasonal level. The monthly YOY increase in milk production was the sixth experienced in a row.
- The U.S. milk cow herd has increased by a total of 22,000 head throughout the past four months, rebounding from the three and a half year low level experienced throughout Aug ’19. The U.S. milk cow herd currently stands at 9.339 million head, which remains 14,000 head below the previous year and 99,000 head below the 23 year high level experienced during Jan ’18.
- U.S. milk per cow yields increased YOY for the 50th consecutive month throughout Dec ’19, finishing 0.8% above the previous year. The YOY increase in milk per cow yields was the smallest experienced throughout the past six months on a percentage basis, however, as Western U.S. yields finished lower YOY.
U.S. milk production volumes had finished higher on a YOY basis over 62 consecutive months from Jan ’14 – Feb ‘19, reaching the longest period of consecutive growth on record, prior to declining by a total of 0.2% from Mar ’19 – Jul ’19. Milk production volumes rebounded throughout more recent months, however, reaching a 12 month high YOY growth rate throughout Sep ’19 and remaining higher on a YOY basis over the months of October, November and December.
YOY increases in production on a percentage basis were led by Texas (+8.9%), followed by Colorado (+5.4%) and Kansas (+4.7%). Production finished most significantly lower YOY on a percentage basis within Arizona (-6.4%), Utah (-3.6%) and Virginia (-3.1%). Overall, just 12 of the 24 states milk production figures are provided for experienced YOY increases in production throughout the month.
California milk production volumes increased on a YOY basis for the 16th time in the past 17 months during Dec ’19, finishing up 0.5%. California accounted for 18.7% of total U.S. milk production volumes throughout the month, leading all states.
Six of the top ten largest milk producing states experienced YOY gains in production throughout Dec ’19, as milk production within the top ten milk producing states finished higher by a weighted average of 1.1% throughout the month. The aforementioned states accounted for nearly three quarters of the total U.S. milk production experienced during Dec ’19. Production volumes outside of the top ten largest milk producing states declined by 0.6% YOY throughout the month, however.
YOY increases in milk production on an absolute basis were led by Texas, followed by Idaho and New York, while YOY declines in production on an absolute basis were most significant throughout Wisconsin, followed by Arizona and Pennsylvania. The YOY decline in Wisconsin production volumes was the second experienced in a row.
The Nov ’19 U.S. milk cow herd figure was revised 8,000 head higher than previously stated while the Dec ’19 herd remained flat with the November revised figure, remaining at a nine month high level. The U.S. milk cow herd had reached a three and a half year low level during Aug ’19 prior to rebounding by a total of 22,000 head throughout the past four months. The U.S. milk cow herd currently stands at 9.339 million head, which remains 14,000 head below the previous year and 99,000 head below the 23 year high level experienced during Jan ’18.
The YOY decline in milk cow numbers was offset by continually increasing U.S. milk per cow yields experienced throughout Dec ’19. The U.S. milk per cow yield increased YOY for the 50th consecutive month throughout Dec ’19, finishing 0.8% above the previous year. The YOY increase in milk per cow yields was the smallest experienced throughout the past six months on a percentage basis, however. Yields experienced throughout the Midwestern states of Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa and Illinois finished 0.5% higher on a YOY basis however yields experienced throughout the Western states of California, Idaho, Washington and Oregon declined 0.5% YOY, finishing lower for the second consecutive month.
Dec ’19 MOM increases in milk cow herds experienced throughout Texas, Kansas, Idaho, Washington, Indiana and Virginia offset MOM declines in the Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Minnesota, Michigan, New Mexico, Iowa, Colorado and Florida milk cow herds.
Dec ’19 YOY declines in milk cow herds continue to be led by Pennsylvania, followed by Arizona. Texas, Idaho and Colorado experienced the largest YOY increases in their milk cow herds throughout the month.