U.S. Dairy Cold Storage Update – Jan ’20
Executive Summary
U.S. cold storage figures provided by USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Dec ’19. Highlights from the updated report include:
According to USDA, Dec ’19 U.S. butter stocks rebounded seasonally from the 11 month low level experienced throughout the previous month while remaining higher on a YOY basis for the sixth consecutive month, finishing up 5.9% to a 26 year seasonal high level. The MOM increase in butter stocks of 9.4 million pounds, or 5.2%, was fairly consistent with the ten year average November – December seasonal build of 9.1 million pounds, or 7.6%. Butter stocks typically reach seasonal low levels throughout the months of November and December, prior to increasing throughout the first half of the calendar year.
On a days of usage basis, Dec ’19 U.S. butter stocks also finished higher YOY. When assuming 12-month rolling average YOY changes in usage rates and known stock values for the month of December, butter stocks on a days of usage basis increased YOY for the fifth time in the past seven months, finishing up 5.2%.
Cheese – Stocks Decline to a 23 Month Low Level, Finish Down 2.2% YOY
Dec ’19 U.S. cheese stocks declined to a 23 month low level, finishing 2.2% lower on a YOY basis. The YOY decline in cheese stocks was the sixth experienced throughout the past seven months. Despite declining on a YOY basis, Dec ’19 U.S. cheese stocks remained 3.2% above three year average seasonal levels. American cheese stocks declined 7.1% YOY throughout the month, more than offsetting a 5.1% YOY increase in other-than-American cheese stocks. The MOM decline in cheese stocks of 6.9 million pounds, or 0.5%, was a contraseasonal move when compared to the ten year average November – December seasonal build of 11.9 million pounds, or 1.1%.
On a days of usage basis, Dec ’19 U.S. cheese stocks also finished lower YOY. When assuming 12-month rolling average YOY changes in usage rates and known stock values for the month of December, cheese stocks on a days of usage basis declined YOY for the seventh time in the past eight months, finishing down 3.7%.
Combined Dairy Product Stocks – Stocks Decline to a Three Year Seasonal Low, Finish Down 3.1% YOY
Nov ’19 combined stocks of butter, cheese, dry whey and NFDM declined on a YOY basis for the second consecutive month, finishing down 3.1%. Combined dairy product stocks reached a three year seasonal low level but remained 1.9% above three year average seasonal figures.
Combined stocks of butter, cheese, dry whey and NFDM are expected to remain lower on a YOY basis for the third consecutive month throughout Dec ’19 when using actual butter and cheese stock figures and previous month YOY changes in dry whey and NFDM stocks, declining by an estimated 3.8%. Dec ’19 dry whey and NFDM stock figures will be available February 4th.
- Dec ’19 U.S. butter stocks remained higher on a YOY basis for the sixth consecutive month, finishing up 5.9% and reaching a 26 year seasonal high level.
- Dec ’19 U.S. cheese stocks declined to a 23 month low level, finishing 2.2% lower on a YOY basis. Cheese stocks remained 3.2% above three year average seasonal levels, however.
According to USDA, Dec ’19 U.S. butter stocks rebounded seasonally from the 11 month low level experienced throughout the previous month while remaining higher on a YOY basis for the sixth consecutive month, finishing up 5.9% to a 26 year seasonal high level. The MOM increase in butter stocks of 9.4 million pounds, or 5.2%, was fairly consistent with the ten year average November – December seasonal build of 9.1 million pounds, or 7.6%. Butter stocks typically reach seasonal low levels throughout the months of November and December, prior to increasing throughout the first half of the calendar year.
On a days of usage basis, Dec ’19 U.S. butter stocks also finished higher YOY. When assuming 12-month rolling average YOY changes in usage rates and known stock values for the month of December, butter stocks on a days of usage basis increased YOY for the fifth time in the past seven months, finishing up 5.2%.
Cheese – Stocks Decline to a 23 Month Low Level, Finish Down 2.2% YOY
Dec ’19 U.S. cheese stocks declined to a 23 month low level, finishing 2.2% lower on a YOY basis. The YOY decline in cheese stocks was the sixth experienced throughout the past seven months. Despite declining on a YOY basis, Dec ’19 U.S. cheese stocks remained 3.2% above three year average seasonal levels. American cheese stocks declined 7.1% YOY throughout the month, more than offsetting a 5.1% YOY increase in other-than-American cheese stocks. The MOM decline in cheese stocks of 6.9 million pounds, or 0.5%, was a contraseasonal move when compared to the ten year average November – December seasonal build of 11.9 million pounds, or 1.1%.
On a days of usage basis, Dec ’19 U.S. cheese stocks also finished lower YOY. When assuming 12-month rolling average YOY changes in usage rates and known stock values for the month of December, cheese stocks on a days of usage basis declined YOY for the seventh time in the past eight months, finishing down 3.7%.
Combined Dairy Product Stocks – Stocks Decline to a Three Year Seasonal Low, Finish Down 3.1% YOY
Nov ’19 combined stocks of butter, cheese, dry whey and NFDM declined on a YOY basis for the second consecutive month, finishing down 3.1%. Combined dairy product stocks reached a three year seasonal low level but remained 1.9% above three year average seasonal figures.
Combined stocks of butter, cheese, dry whey and NFDM are expected to remain lower on a YOY basis for the third consecutive month throughout Dec ’19 when using actual butter and cheese stock figures and previous month YOY changes in dry whey and NFDM stocks, declining by an estimated 3.8%. Dec ’19 dry whey and NFDM stock figures will be available February 4th.