Global Dairy Trade Results Update – 1/21/20
Executive Summary
Dairy product prices increased during the GDT event held Jan 21st. Highlights from the most recent auction include:
The GDT Price Index finished 12.1% above previous year price levels at the Jan 21st event, increasing on a YOY basis for the 14th consecutive event. The GDT Price Index also finished 6.4% above the three year average price for the second auction of January, finishing above three year average figures for the 26th consecutive event. The GDT Price Index finished at a six year high seasonal level, overall.
Within the latest auction, increases in prices were led by butter (+5.5%), followed by rennet casein (+4.7%), whole milk powder (+2.4%), skim milk powder (+0.7%), cheddar cheese (+0.6%) and lactose (+0.5%). The increases more than offset a 2.6% decline in anhydrous milkfat prices. Butter milk powder and sweet whey powder were not sold at the Jan 21st event.
The table below provides a summary of the most recent GDT weighted average winning prices for key products. Butter has been adjusted to 80% butterfat and skim milk powder (SMP) has been adjusted to 35% protein content (equivalent to U.S. nonfat dry milk) in the $/lb columns below. CME spot and average futures prices are based on Jan 17th figures. CME average futures prices are weighted average prices based on the most recently reported percentage of the total quantity sold in each GDT contract period.
Total quantities sold for all products at the Jan 21st event of 33,165 MT increased 0.3% from the previous event while finishing 18.8% higher on a YOY basis. The YOY increase in total quantities sold was the second experienced in a row.
Volumes sold for all products within the January auctions declined 8.0% from average December volumes sold but finished 17.1% above last year’s average volumes sold for the month of January. Jan ’20 volumes sold for all products finished 32.7% above three year average seasonal figures, reaching a six year seasonal high level.
U.S. butter prices remained at a premium to GDT winning prices at the Jan 21st event, despite GDT butter prices rebounding to a six month high level. U.S. spot butter prices are currently trading at parity to GDT prices however CME futures prices traded at a 9.3% premium to GDT prices from Feb ’20 – Jun ’20. Butter was not sold at the GDT auction for Contract 6 (Jul ’20).
U.S. cheddar cheese prices finished at a slight discount to GDT winning prices at the Jan 21st event as GDT cheddar cheese prices increased to an eight month high level. U.S. spot cheddar cheese prices are currently trading at a 4.0% discount to GDT prices while CME futures prices traded at a 2.2% discount to GDT prices from Feb ’20 – Jun ’20. Cheddar cheese was not sold at the GDT auction for Contract 6 (Jul ’20).
U.S. nonfat dry milk (NFDM) futures prices remained at a discount to GDT winning prices at the Jan 21st event as GDT SMP prices rebounded to the second highest level experienced throughout the past five years. U.S. spot NFDM prices are currently trading at a 9.0% discount to GDT prices while CME futures prices also traded at a 9.0% discount to GDT prices from Feb ’20 – Jun ’20. SMP was not sold at the GDT auction for Contract 6 (Jul ’20).
- The GDT Price Index increased 1.7% at the Jan 21st event, finishing higher for the second consecutive auction. The GDT Price Index reached a six year high seasonal level, finishing higher on a YOY basis for the 14th consecutive event.
- Increases in prices within the Jan 21st event were led by butter, followed by rennet casein, whole milk powder, skim milk powder, cheddar cheese and lactose. Butter prices increased to a six month high level while cheddar cheese prices reached an eight month high. Skim milk powder prices increased to the second highest level experienced throughout the past five years while whole milk powder prices finished higher for the second consecutive event. Anhydrous milkfat prices declined from the previous auction, finishing at a three auction low.
- Total quantities sold for all products at the Jan 21st event increased slightly from the previous event while remaining higher on a YOY basis for the second consecutive event. Volumes sold for all products within the January auctions finished 17.1% above last year’s average volumes sold for the month of January and 32.7% above three year average seasonal figures, reaching a six year high seasonal level, overall.
The GDT Price Index finished 12.1% above previous year price levels at the Jan 21st event, increasing on a YOY basis for the 14th consecutive event. The GDT Price Index also finished 6.4% above the three year average price for the second auction of January, finishing above three year average figures for the 26th consecutive event. The GDT Price Index finished at a six year high seasonal level, overall.
Within the latest auction, increases in prices were led by butter (+5.5%), followed by rennet casein (+4.7%), whole milk powder (+2.4%), skim milk powder (+0.7%), cheddar cheese (+0.6%) and lactose (+0.5%). The increases more than offset a 2.6% decline in anhydrous milkfat prices. Butter milk powder and sweet whey powder were not sold at the Jan 21st event.
The table below provides a summary of the most recent GDT weighted average winning prices for key products. Butter has been adjusted to 80% butterfat and skim milk powder (SMP) has been adjusted to 35% protein content (equivalent to U.S. nonfat dry milk) in the $/lb columns below. CME spot and average futures prices are based on Jan 17th figures. CME average futures prices are weighted average prices based on the most recently reported percentage of the total quantity sold in each GDT contract period.
Total quantities sold for all products at the Jan 21st event of 33,165 MT increased 0.3% from the previous event while finishing 18.8% higher on a YOY basis. The YOY increase in total quantities sold was the second experienced in a row.
Volumes sold for all products within the January auctions declined 8.0% from average December volumes sold but finished 17.1% above last year’s average volumes sold for the month of January. Jan ’20 volumes sold for all products finished 32.7% above three year average seasonal figures, reaching a six year seasonal high level.
U.S. butter prices remained at a premium to GDT winning prices at the Jan 21st event, despite GDT butter prices rebounding to a six month high level. U.S. spot butter prices are currently trading at parity to GDT prices however CME futures prices traded at a 9.3% premium to GDT prices from Feb ’20 – Jun ’20. Butter was not sold at the GDT auction for Contract 6 (Jul ’20).
U.S. cheddar cheese prices finished at a slight discount to GDT winning prices at the Jan 21st event as GDT cheddar cheese prices increased to an eight month high level. U.S. spot cheddar cheese prices are currently trading at a 4.0% discount to GDT prices while CME futures prices traded at a 2.2% discount to GDT prices from Feb ’20 – Jun ’20. Cheddar cheese was not sold at the GDT auction for Contract 6 (Jul ’20).
U.S. nonfat dry milk (NFDM) futures prices remained at a discount to GDT winning prices at the Jan 21st event as GDT SMP prices rebounded to the second highest level experienced throughout the past five years. U.S. spot NFDM prices are currently trading at a 9.0% discount to GDT prices while CME futures prices also traded at a 9.0% discount to GDT prices from Feb ’20 – Jun ’20. SMP was not sold at the GDT auction for Contract 6 (Jul ’20).