EU-28 Milk Production Update – Jan ’20
Executive Summary
EU-28 milk production figures provided by Eurostat were recently updated with values spanning through Nov ’19. Highlights from the updated report include:
EU-28 milk production volumes have finished higher on a YOY basis over ten consecutive months through Nov ’19. USDA expects EU-28 milk production volumes to remain higher on a YOY basis throughout the 2020 calendar year as pasture conditions are expected to continue to rebound from recently experienced drought related forage shortages. USDA is projecting a 0.4% YOY increase in EU-28 milk production volumes throughout the 2020 calendar year, slightly smaller than the 0.6% YOY increase in production volumes experienced throughout the first 11 months of 2019.
Nov ’19 YOY increases in production on an absolute basis were led by France, followed by the Netherlands and Poland, while YOY declines in production on an absolute basis were led by Ireland, followed by Italy. The YOY decline in Irish milk production volumes was the largest experienced throughout the past 19 months, however Irish milk production volumes remained 7.2% above three year average figures. Irish milk production volumes had finished 20.2% higher on a YOY basis during Nov ’18.
YOY increases in production on a percentage basis were led by Luxembourg (+7.8%), followed by Cyprus (+6.1%) and Bulgaria (+5.1%), while declines in production on a percentage basis were most significant within Ireland (-8.3%), followed by Croatia (-4.6%) and Sweden (-2.5%).
Six of the top ten milk producing member states experienced YOY increases in milk production during Nov ’19 as production within the top ten milk producing member states increased by a weighted average of 0.6% throughout the month. The top ten EU-28 milk producing member states accounted for over 85% of the total EU-28 milk production experienced throughout the month. Overall, 18 of the 28 member states experienced YOY increases in production volumes during Nov ’19.
Oct ’19 EU-28 beef & dairy cow slaughter finished lower on a YOY basis for the fifth consecutive month when normalizing for slaughter days, declining by 2.6%. The YOY decline in beef & dairy cow slaughter was the smallest experienced throughout the five month period on a percentage basis, however. YOY declines in beef & dairy cow slaughter were most significant within the Netherlands, followed by France and Italy.
’18-’19 annual EU-28 bovine slaughter increased on a YOY basis for the fifth consecutive year, finishing up 0.5% to the highest figure on record, despite declining by 1.0% on a YOY basis over the second half of the production season. USDA expects the EU-28 dairy cow herd to decline 0.4% throughout the 2020 calendar year due to feed shortages stemming from the recent drought but noted additional culling rates, coupled with improved genetics, are expected to have a positive impact on future per cow productivity as lower producing animals are culled.
- EU-28 milk production finished higher on a YOY basis for the tenth consecutive month during Nov ’19, increasing 0.6% to the second highest seasonal level on record.
- Nov ’19 YOY increases in milk production were led by France, followed by the Netherlands and Poland, while YOY declines in milk production were led by Ireland, followed by Italy. Overall, 18 of the 28 member states experienced YOY increases in milk production throughout the month.
- EU-28 beef & dairy cow slaughter rates finished lower on a YOY basis for the fifth consecutive month during Oct ’19 when normalizing for slaughter days, declining by 2.6%.
EU-28 milk production volumes have finished higher on a YOY basis over ten consecutive months through Nov ’19. USDA expects EU-28 milk production volumes to remain higher on a YOY basis throughout the 2020 calendar year as pasture conditions are expected to continue to rebound from recently experienced drought related forage shortages. USDA is projecting a 0.4% YOY increase in EU-28 milk production volumes throughout the 2020 calendar year, slightly smaller than the 0.6% YOY increase in production volumes experienced throughout the first 11 months of 2019.
Nov ’19 YOY increases in production on an absolute basis were led by France, followed by the Netherlands and Poland, while YOY declines in production on an absolute basis were led by Ireland, followed by Italy. The YOY decline in Irish milk production volumes was the largest experienced throughout the past 19 months, however Irish milk production volumes remained 7.2% above three year average figures. Irish milk production volumes had finished 20.2% higher on a YOY basis during Nov ’18.
YOY increases in production on a percentage basis were led by Luxembourg (+7.8%), followed by Cyprus (+6.1%) and Bulgaria (+5.1%), while declines in production on a percentage basis were most significant within Ireland (-8.3%), followed by Croatia (-4.6%) and Sweden (-2.5%).
Six of the top ten milk producing member states experienced YOY increases in milk production during Nov ’19 as production within the top ten milk producing member states increased by a weighted average of 0.6% throughout the month. The top ten EU-28 milk producing member states accounted for over 85% of the total EU-28 milk production experienced throughout the month. Overall, 18 of the 28 member states experienced YOY increases in production volumes during Nov ’19.
Oct ’19 EU-28 beef & dairy cow slaughter finished lower on a YOY basis for the fifth consecutive month when normalizing for slaughter days, declining by 2.6%. The YOY decline in beef & dairy cow slaughter was the smallest experienced throughout the five month period on a percentage basis, however. YOY declines in beef & dairy cow slaughter were most significant within the Netherlands, followed by France and Italy.
’18-’19 annual EU-28 bovine slaughter increased on a YOY basis for the fifth consecutive year, finishing up 0.5% to the highest figure on record, despite declining by 1.0% on a YOY basis over the second half of the production season. USDA expects the EU-28 dairy cow herd to decline 0.4% throughout the 2020 calendar year due to feed shortages stemming from the recent drought but noted additional culling rates, coupled with improved genetics, are expected to have a positive impact on future per cow productivity as lower producing animals are culled.