U.S. Dairy Exports Update – Jan ’20
Executive Summary
U.S. dairy export figures provided by USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Nov ’19. Highlights from the updated report include:
Butterfat export volumes destined to Mexico declined most significantly on a YOY basis throughout the month. Mexico accounted for over 80% of the total YOY decline in Nov ’19 U.S. butterfat export volumes.
Canada and Mexico have historically been the largest importers of U.S. butterfat, accounting for over half of the total U.S. export volumes experienced throughout the past five years. U.S. butterfat export volumes destined to Canada and Mexico have declined by 33.9% and 77.9%, respectively, on a YOY basis throughout the past 12 months, compared to a 22.5% YOY decline in U.S. butterfat export volumes destined to all other countries.
Cheese – Export Volumes Increase 7.3% YOY, Reach the Second Highest Seasonal Level on Record
Nov ’19 U.S. cheese export volumes increased on a YOY basis for the third consecutive month, finishing up 7.3% and reaching the second highest seasonal level on record. Cheddar cheese export volumes increased 24.9% YOY throughout the month while other-than-cheddar cheese export volumes finished 5.4% higher. ’18-’19 annual cheese export volumes increased 2.3% on a YOY basis, reaching a five year high level.
Nov ’19 YOY increases in cheese export volumes were led by product destined to South Korea, followed by volumes destined to Japan and Mexico, while volumes destined to Australia finished most significantly lower on a YOY basis throughout the month.
Mexico and South Korea have historically been the largest importers of U.S. cheese, accounting for 45% of total U.S. cheese export volumes throughout the past five years. Combined U.S. cheese export volumes destined to Mexico and South Korea have increased 3.6% on a YOY basis throughout the past 12 months.
Whey – Dry Whey Exports Remain Lower YOY, Whey Protein Concentrate Volumes Remain Higher
Nov ’19 U.S. dry whey export volumes remained lower on a YOY basis for the 15th consecutive month, declining by 24.7% and reaching a four year seasonal low level. ’18-’19 annual dry whey export volumes declined 29.8% from the four year high level experienced throughout the previous production season, finishing at a 15 year low level.
Nov ’19 whey protein concentrate (WPC) export volumes increased 18.4% on a YOY basis, finishing higher for the second consecutive month. WPC export volumes had finished lower on a YOY basis over 11 of 12 months prior to increasing throughout the past two months. ’18-’19 annual WPC export volumes declined 29.1% from the record high level experienced throughout the previous production season, finishing at a four year low level.
U.S. whey export volumes destined to China remained most significantly lower on a YOY basis throughout the month. China applied a 25% retaliatory tariff to a wide variety of U.S. dairy products including whey during early Jul ’18 while Chinese whey demand has also been reduced on weaker feed demand due to African swine fever. Nov ’19 U.S. whey export volumes destined to Mexico and Vietnam also declined significantly on a YOY basis throughout the month while export volumes destined to Indonesia finished most significantly higher.
China has historically been the largest importer of U.S. whey products, accounting for over a third of the total U.S. whey export volumes throughout the past five years. U.S. whey export volumes destined to China have declined 52.8% YOY throughout the past 12 months, while whey export volume destined to all other countries have declined by just 4.0% on a YOY basis over the same period.
NFDM/SMP – Export Volumes Increase 41.0% YOY, Reach a Record High Seasonal Level
Nov ’19 U.S. export volumes of nonfat dry milk (NFDM) and skim milk powder (SMP) finished higher on a YOY basis for the third consecutive month, increasing 41.0% and reaching a record high seasonal level. ’18-’19 annual NFDM/SMP exports declined 9.4% from the record high level experienced throughout the previous production season but remained at the second highest annual figure on record.
Nov ’19 YOY increases in NFDM/SMP export volumes were led by product destined to the Philippines, Indonesia and Columbia, while export volumes destined to Mexico finished most significantly lower on a YOY basis throughout the month.
Mexico has historically been the largest importer of U.S. NFDM/SMP, accounting for nearly half of all U.S. NFDM/SMP export volumes throughout the past five years. U.S. NFDM/SMP export volumes destined to Mexico have declined 3.0% YOY throughout the past 12 months while export volumes destined to all other countries have declined by 7.8% on a YOY basis over the same period.
Export Volumes Normalized to Production
U.S. cheese and NFDM/SMP export volumes as a percentage of production finished above previous year figures during Nov ’19 however butterfat and dry whey export volumes as a percentage of production remained lower on a YOY basis.
Overall, U.S. dairy export volumes were estimated to be equivalent to approximately 15.8% of total U.S. milk-solids production during Nov ’19 while dairy import volumes were estimated to be equivalent to approximately 3.5% of total U.S. milk-solids production. Nov ’19 net dairy trade was estimated to increase 18.0% on a YOY basis, finishing higher for the first time in the past 13 months.
Nov ’19 U.S. dairy exports as a percentage of milk-solids production increased on a YOY basis for the first time in the past 13 months, finishing up 12.9%. ’18-’19 annual dairy exports as a percentage of milk-solids production declined 12.3% from the record high level experienced throughout the previous production season, finishing at a three year low.
Nov ’19 U.S. dairy imports as a percentage of milk-solids production declined on a YOY basis for the first time in the past 14 months, finishing down 1.9%. ’18-’19 annual dairy imports as a percentage of milk-solids production rebounded 12.4% from the four year low level experienced throughout the previous production season, reaching a three year high.
Net trade of U.S. NFDM/SMP continued to outpace that of butter, cheese and dry whey as import volumes remain minimal. Net cheese trade volumes exceeded net dry whey trade volumes for the first time in the past four months during Nov ’19 while the U.S. finished as a net importer of butter for the 19th consecutive month.
- Nov ’19 U.S. butterfat export volumes declined on a YOY basis for the ninth consecutive month, finishing down 63.1% to a four year seasonal low level, however Nov ’19 U.S. cheese export volumes increased 7.3% on a YOY basis throughout the month, finishing higher for the third consecutive month.
- Nov ’19 U.S. dry whey export volumes declined 24.7% on a YOY basis, reaching a four year seasonal low level, however whey protein concentrate export volumes increased 18.4% YOY, finishing higher for the second consecutive month. Nov ’19 U.S. nonfat dry milk/skim milk powder export volumes increased on a YOY basis for the third consecutive month, finishing up 41.0% and reaching a record high seasonal level.
- Net dairy trade on a percentage of total U.S. milk-solids production basis increased YOY for the first time in the past 13 months during Nov ’19, finishing up 18.0%.
Butterfat export volumes destined to Mexico declined most significantly on a YOY basis throughout the month. Mexico accounted for over 80% of the total YOY decline in Nov ’19 U.S. butterfat export volumes.
Canada and Mexico have historically been the largest importers of U.S. butterfat, accounting for over half of the total U.S. export volumes experienced throughout the past five years. U.S. butterfat export volumes destined to Canada and Mexico have declined by 33.9% and 77.9%, respectively, on a YOY basis throughout the past 12 months, compared to a 22.5% YOY decline in U.S. butterfat export volumes destined to all other countries.
Cheese – Export Volumes Increase 7.3% YOY, Reach the Second Highest Seasonal Level on Record
Nov ’19 U.S. cheese export volumes increased on a YOY basis for the third consecutive month, finishing up 7.3% and reaching the second highest seasonal level on record. Cheddar cheese export volumes increased 24.9% YOY throughout the month while other-than-cheddar cheese export volumes finished 5.4% higher. ’18-’19 annual cheese export volumes increased 2.3% on a YOY basis, reaching a five year high level.
Nov ’19 YOY increases in cheese export volumes were led by product destined to South Korea, followed by volumes destined to Japan and Mexico, while volumes destined to Australia finished most significantly lower on a YOY basis throughout the month.
Mexico and South Korea have historically been the largest importers of U.S. cheese, accounting for 45% of total U.S. cheese export volumes throughout the past five years. Combined U.S. cheese export volumes destined to Mexico and South Korea have increased 3.6% on a YOY basis throughout the past 12 months.
Whey – Dry Whey Exports Remain Lower YOY, Whey Protein Concentrate Volumes Remain Higher
Nov ’19 U.S. dry whey export volumes remained lower on a YOY basis for the 15th consecutive month, declining by 24.7% and reaching a four year seasonal low level. ’18-’19 annual dry whey export volumes declined 29.8% from the four year high level experienced throughout the previous production season, finishing at a 15 year low level.
Nov ’19 whey protein concentrate (WPC) export volumes increased 18.4% on a YOY basis, finishing higher for the second consecutive month. WPC export volumes had finished lower on a YOY basis over 11 of 12 months prior to increasing throughout the past two months. ’18-’19 annual WPC export volumes declined 29.1% from the record high level experienced throughout the previous production season, finishing at a four year low level.
U.S. whey export volumes destined to China remained most significantly lower on a YOY basis throughout the month. China applied a 25% retaliatory tariff to a wide variety of U.S. dairy products including whey during early Jul ’18 while Chinese whey demand has also been reduced on weaker feed demand due to African swine fever. Nov ’19 U.S. whey export volumes destined to Mexico and Vietnam also declined significantly on a YOY basis throughout the month while export volumes destined to Indonesia finished most significantly higher.
China has historically been the largest importer of U.S. whey products, accounting for over a third of the total U.S. whey export volumes throughout the past five years. U.S. whey export volumes destined to China have declined 52.8% YOY throughout the past 12 months, while whey export volume destined to all other countries have declined by just 4.0% on a YOY basis over the same period.
NFDM/SMP – Export Volumes Increase 41.0% YOY, Reach a Record High Seasonal Level
Nov ’19 U.S. export volumes of nonfat dry milk (NFDM) and skim milk powder (SMP) finished higher on a YOY basis for the third consecutive month, increasing 41.0% and reaching a record high seasonal level. ’18-’19 annual NFDM/SMP exports declined 9.4% from the record high level experienced throughout the previous production season but remained at the second highest annual figure on record.
Nov ’19 YOY increases in NFDM/SMP export volumes were led by product destined to the Philippines, Indonesia and Columbia, while export volumes destined to Mexico finished most significantly lower on a YOY basis throughout the month.
Mexico has historically been the largest importer of U.S. NFDM/SMP, accounting for nearly half of all U.S. NFDM/SMP export volumes throughout the past five years. U.S. NFDM/SMP export volumes destined to Mexico have declined 3.0% YOY throughout the past 12 months while export volumes destined to all other countries have declined by 7.8% on a YOY basis over the same period.
Export Volumes Normalized to Production
U.S. cheese and NFDM/SMP export volumes as a percentage of production finished above previous year figures during Nov ’19 however butterfat and dry whey export volumes as a percentage of production remained lower on a YOY basis.
Overall, U.S. dairy export volumes were estimated to be equivalent to approximately 15.8% of total U.S. milk-solids production during Nov ’19 while dairy import volumes were estimated to be equivalent to approximately 3.5% of total U.S. milk-solids production. Nov ’19 net dairy trade was estimated to increase 18.0% on a YOY basis, finishing higher for the first time in the past 13 months.
Nov ’19 U.S. dairy exports as a percentage of milk-solids production increased on a YOY basis for the first time in the past 13 months, finishing up 12.9%. ’18-’19 annual dairy exports as a percentage of milk-solids production declined 12.3% from the record high level experienced throughout the previous production season, finishing at a three year low.
Nov ’19 U.S. dairy imports as a percentage of milk-solids production declined on a YOY basis for the first time in the past 14 months, finishing down 1.9%. ’18-’19 annual dairy imports as a percentage of milk-solids production rebounded 12.4% from the four year low level experienced throughout the previous production season, reaching a three year high.
Net trade of U.S. NFDM/SMP continued to outpace that of butter, cheese and dry whey as import volumes remain minimal. Net cheese trade volumes exceeded net dry whey trade volumes for the first time in the past four months during Nov ’19 while the U.S. finished as a net importer of butter for the 19th consecutive month.