U.S. Dairy Cold Storage Update – Dec ’19
Executive Summary
U.S. cold storage figures provided by USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Nov ’19. Highlights from the updated report include:
According to USDA, Nov ’19 U.S. butter stocks declined seasonally to an 11 month low level but remained higher on a YOY basis for the fifth consecutive month, finishing up 17.1% to a 26 year seasonal high level. The MOM decline in butter stocks of 53.8 million pounds, or 22.9%, was fairly consistent with the ten year average October – November seasonal decline of 49.1 million pounds, or 27.7%. Butter stocks typically decline seasonally throughout the second half of the calendar year, reaching seasonal lows throughout the months of November and December.
On a days of usage basis, Nov ’19 U.S. butter stocks also finished higher YOY. When assuming 12-month rolling average YOY changes in usage rates and known stock values for the month of November, butter stocks on a days of usage basis increased YOY for the fourth time in the past six months, finishing up 15.9%.
Cheese – Stocks Decline to a 21 Month Low Level, Finish Down 2.1% YOY
Nov ’19 U.S. cheese stocks declined to a 21 month low level, finishing 2.1% lower on a YOY basis. The YOY decline in cheese stocks was the fifth experienced throughout the past six months. Despite declining on a YOY basis, Nov ’19 U.S. cheese stocks remained 4.7% above three year average seasonal levels. American cheese stocks declined 7.4% YOY throughout the month, more than offsetting a 5.6% YOY increase in other-than-American cheese stocks. The MOM seasonal decline in cheese stocks of 17.5 million pounds, or 1.3%, was consistent with the ten year average October – November seasonal decline of 16.0 million pounds, or 1.4%.
On a days of usage basis, Nov ’19 U.S. cheese stocks also finished lower YOY. When assuming 12-month rolling average YOY changes in usage rates and known stock values for the month of November, cheese stocks on a days of usage basis declined YOY for the sixth time in the past seven months, finishing down 3.9%.
Combined Dairy Product Stocks – Oct Stocks Down 3.1% YOY, Nov Stocks Projected Down 2.0% YOY
Oct ’19 combined stocks of butter, cheese, dry whey and NFDM declined on a YOY basis for the first time in the past three months, finishing down 3.1%. Combined dairy product stocks reached a three year seasonal low level but remained 1.0% above three year average seasonal figures.
Combined stocks of butter, cheese, dry whey and NFDM are expected to remain lower on a YOY basis for the second consecutive month throughout Nov ’19 when using actual butter and cheese stock figures and previous month YOY changes in dry whey and NFDM stocks, however, declining by an estimated 2.0%. Nov ’19 dry whey and NFDM stock figures will be available January 6th.
- Nov ’19 U.S. butter stocks declined seasonally to an 11 month low level but remained higher on a YOY basis for the fifth consecutive month, finishing up 17.1% and reaching a 26 year seasonal high level.
- Nov ’19 U.S. cheese stocks declined to a 21 month low level, finishing 2.1% lower on a YOY basis. Cheese stocks remained 4.7% above three year average seasonal levels, however.
According to USDA, Nov ’19 U.S. butter stocks declined seasonally to an 11 month low level but remained higher on a YOY basis for the fifth consecutive month, finishing up 17.1% to a 26 year seasonal high level. The MOM decline in butter stocks of 53.8 million pounds, or 22.9%, was fairly consistent with the ten year average October – November seasonal decline of 49.1 million pounds, or 27.7%. Butter stocks typically decline seasonally throughout the second half of the calendar year, reaching seasonal lows throughout the months of November and December.
On a days of usage basis, Nov ’19 U.S. butter stocks also finished higher YOY. When assuming 12-month rolling average YOY changes in usage rates and known stock values for the month of November, butter stocks on a days of usage basis increased YOY for the fourth time in the past six months, finishing up 15.9%.
Cheese – Stocks Decline to a 21 Month Low Level, Finish Down 2.1% YOY
Nov ’19 U.S. cheese stocks declined to a 21 month low level, finishing 2.1% lower on a YOY basis. The YOY decline in cheese stocks was the fifth experienced throughout the past six months. Despite declining on a YOY basis, Nov ’19 U.S. cheese stocks remained 4.7% above three year average seasonal levels. American cheese stocks declined 7.4% YOY throughout the month, more than offsetting a 5.6% YOY increase in other-than-American cheese stocks. The MOM seasonal decline in cheese stocks of 17.5 million pounds, or 1.3%, was consistent with the ten year average October – November seasonal decline of 16.0 million pounds, or 1.4%.
On a days of usage basis, Nov ’19 U.S. cheese stocks also finished lower YOY. When assuming 12-month rolling average YOY changes in usage rates and known stock values for the month of November, cheese stocks on a days of usage basis declined YOY for the sixth time in the past seven months, finishing down 3.9%.
Combined Dairy Product Stocks – Oct Stocks Down 3.1% YOY, Nov Stocks Projected Down 2.0% YOY
Oct ’19 combined stocks of butter, cheese, dry whey and NFDM declined on a YOY basis for the first time in the past three months, finishing down 3.1%. Combined dairy product stocks reached a three year seasonal low level but remained 1.0% above three year average seasonal figures.
Combined stocks of butter, cheese, dry whey and NFDM are expected to remain lower on a YOY basis for the second consecutive month throughout Nov ’19 when using actual butter and cheese stock figures and previous month YOY changes in dry whey and NFDM stocks, however, declining by an estimated 2.0%. Nov ’19 dry whey and NFDM stock figures will be available January 6th.