EU-28 Milk Production Update – Dec ’19
Executive Summary
EU-28 milk production figures provided by Eurostat were recently updated with values spanning through Oct ’19. Highlights from the updated report include:
EU-28 milk production volumes have finished higher on a YOY basis over nine consecutive months through Oct ’19, however the Oct ’19 YOY increase in production volumes was the smallest experienced throughout the past four months on a percentage basis. USDA expects EU-28 milk production volumes to remain higher on a YOY basis throughout the final months of the 2019 calendar year as the feed situation is expected to remain favorable. USDA is projecting a 0.9% YOY increase in EU-28 milk production volumes throughout the 2019 calendar year, greater than the 0.5% YOY increase in production volumes experienced throughout the first ten months of the year.
Oct ’19 YOY increases in production on an absolute basis were led by Spain, followed by France and the Netherlands, while YOY declines in production on an absolute basis were led by Ireland, followed by Germany and the United Kingdom. The YOY decline in Irish milk production volumes was the largest experienced throughout the past 18 months, however Irish milk production volumes remained 10.8% above three year average figures, consistent with recent monthly gains versus three year average figures. Irish milk production volumes had finished 20.2% higher on a YOY basis during Oct ’18.
YOY increases in production on a percentage basis were led by Luxembourg (+7.5%), followed by Cyprus (+6.6%) and Spain (+4.9%), while declines in production on a percentage basis were most significant within Malta (-5.2%), followed by Croatia (-4.2%) and Ireland (-3.6%).
Five of the top ten milk producing member states experienced YOY increases in milk production during Oct ’19 as production within the top ten milk producing member states increased by a weighted average of 0.3% throughout the month. The top ten EU-28 milk producing member states accounted for over 85% of the total EU-28 milk production experienced throughout the month. Overall, 17 of the 28 member states experienced YOY increases in production volumes during Oct ’19.
Sep ’19 EU-28 beef & dairy cow slaughter finished lower on a YOY basis for the seventh time in the past eight months when normalizing for slaughter days, declining by 3.0%. The YOY decline in beef & dairy cow slaughter was the smallest experienced throughout the past four months on a percentage basis, however. YOY declines in beef & dairy cow slaughter were most significant within Ireland, followed by the Netherlands and Germany.
’18-’19 annual EU-28 bovine slaughter increased on a YOY basis for the fifth consecutive year, finishing up 0.5% to the highest figure on record, despite declining by 1.0% on a YOY basis over the second half of the production season. USDA expects the EU-28 dairy cow herd to decline 1.3% throughout the 2019 calendar year due to feed shortages stemming from the recent drought but noted additional culling rates are expected to have a positive impact on future per cow productivity as lower producing animals are culled.
- EU-28 milk production finished higher on a YOY basis for the ninth consecutive month during Oct ’19, increasing 0.3% to a record high seasonal level. The YOY increase in EU-28 milk production volumes was the smallest experienced throughout the past four months, however.
- Oct ’19 YOY increases in milk production were led by Spain, followed by France and the Netherlands, while YOY declines in milk production were led by Ireland, followed by Germany and the United Kingdom. Overall, 17 of the 28 member states experienced YOY increases in milk production throughout the month.
- EU-28 beef & dairy cow slaughter rates finished lower on a YOY basis for the seventh time in the past eight months during Sep ’19 when normalizing for slaughter days, declining by 3.0%.
EU-28 milk production volumes have finished higher on a YOY basis over nine consecutive months through Oct ’19, however the Oct ’19 YOY increase in production volumes was the smallest experienced throughout the past four months on a percentage basis. USDA expects EU-28 milk production volumes to remain higher on a YOY basis throughout the final months of the 2019 calendar year as the feed situation is expected to remain favorable. USDA is projecting a 0.9% YOY increase in EU-28 milk production volumes throughout the 2019 calendar year, greater than the 0.5% YOY increase in production volumes experienced throughout the first ten months of the year.
Oct ’19 YOY increases in production on an absolute basis were led by Spain, followed by France and the Netherlands, while YOY declines in production on an absolute basis were led by Ireland, followed by Germany and the United Kingdom. The YOY decline in Irish milk production volumes was the largest experienced throughout the past 18 months, however Irish milk production volumes remained 10.8% above three year average figures, consistent with recent monthly gains versus three year average figures. Irish milk production volumes had finished 20.2% higher on a YOY basis during Oct ’18.
YOY increases in production on a percentage basis were led by Luxembourg (+7.5%), followed by Cyprus (+6.6%) and Spain (+4.9%), while declines in production on a percentage basis were most significant within Malta (-5.2%), followed by Croatia (-4.2%) and Ireland (-3.6%).
Five of the top ten milk producing member states experienced YOY increases in milk production during Oct ’19 as production within the top ten milk producing member states increased by a weighted average of 0.3% throughout the month. The top ten EU-28 milk producing member states accounted for over 85% of the total EU-28 milk production experienced throughout the month. Overall, 17 of the 28 member states experienced YOY increases in production volumes during Oct ’19.
Sep ’19 EU-28 beef & dairy cow slaughter finished lower on a YOY basis for the seventh time in the past eight months when normalizing for slaughter days, declining by 3.0%. The YOY decline in beef & dairy cow slaughter was the smallest experienced throughout the past four months on a percentage basis, however. YOY declines in beef & dairy cow slaughter were most significant within Ireland, followed by the Netherlands and Germany.
’18-’19 annual EU-28 bovine slaughter increased on a YOY basis for the fifth consecutive year, finishing up 0.5% to the highest figure on record, despite declining by 1.0% on a YOY basis over the second half of the production season. USDA expects the EU-28 dairy cow herd to decline 1.3% throughout the 2019 calendar year due to feed shortages stemming from the recent drought but noted additional culling rates are expected to have a positive impact on future per cow productivity as lower producing animals are culled.