U.S. Livestock & Meat Trade Update – Dec ’19
Executive Summary
U.S. livestock and meat trade figures provided by USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Oct ’19. Highlights from the updated report include:
Mexico and Japan have historically been the largest importers of U.S. pork products, accounting for over half of the total U.S. pork export volumes throughout the past five years. Combined U.S. pork export volumes destined to Mexico and Japan have declined on a YOY basis by 11.5% throughout the past 12 months, however. Throughout the past 12 months, YOY increases in U.S. pork exports have been led by product destined to China, Hong Kong & Taiwan, followed by Australia, while shipments destined to Mexico and Japan have declined most significantly on a YOY basis over the period.
U.S. pork import volumes remained lower on a YOY basis for the 18th consecutive month during Oct ’19, finishing down 3.1%. The decline in pork import volumes, coupled with the increase in pork export volumes, resulted in U.S. net pork trade finishing up 4.9% YOY during Oct ’19, reaching a record high seasonal level. The YOY increase in net pork trade was the sixth experienced in a row but the smallest experienced throughout the past five months on a percentage basis. ’18-’19 annual net pork trade increased 5.6% YOY, finishing at a record high level for the second consecutive year.
Beef & Veal – Exports Remain Lower YOY However Net Trade Finishes Positive
Oct ’19 U.S. beef & veal export volumes remained lower on a YOY basis for the tenth consecutive month, finishing down 9.0% YOY. U.S. beef & veal export volumes had finished higher on a YOY basis over 30 consecutive months through the end of 2018, prior to declining on a YOY basis over the past ten months. YOY declines in U.S. beef & veal export volumes were led by shipments destined to Japan, followed by shipments destined to Mexico, while export volumes destined to Indonesia finished most significantly higher on a YOY basis throughout the month.
Japan, South Korea, China, Hong Kong & Taiwan, Mexico and Canada have historically been the largest importers of U.S. beef & veal products, combining to account for 90% of the total U.S. beef & veal export volumes throughout the past five years. Throughout the past 12 months, U.S. beef & veal export volumes destined to South Korea have increased most significantly on a YOY basis, while shipments destined to Japan have declined most significantly on a YOY basis over the period.
Oct ’19 U.S. beef & veal import volumes increased on a YOY basis for the first time in the past five months, finishing up 2.7%. Beef & veal export volumes continued to exceed import volumes for the fourth time in the past five months during Oct ’19, however, resulting in U.S. beef & veal trade finishing at a positive level. Despite remaining positive, Oct ’19 beef & veal net trade finished at a three year seasonal low level for the month of October. ’18-’19 annual beef & veal net trade finished at a positive level for the second consecutive year however beef & veal net trade remained 54.2% below previous year levels.
Broilers – Net Trade Declines YOY for the Fourth Time in Five Months, Finishes Down 2.0%
Oct ’19 U.S. broiler export volumes declined 2.6% YOY, finishing lower on a YOY basis for the seventh time in the past nine months. YOY declines in U.S. broiler export volumes were led by shipments destined to Cuba and Iraq while export volumes destined to Vietnam and Mexico increased most significantly on a YOY basis throughout the month.
Mexico has historically been the largest importer of U.S. broilers, accounting for over one fifth of the total U.S. broiler export volumes throughout the past five years. Throughout the past 12 months, U.S. broiler export volumes destined to Georgia have increased most significantly on a YOY basis, followed by volumes destined to Mexico, while shipments destined to Angola have declined most significantly on a YOY basis over the period.
U.S. broiler import volumes declined on a YOY basis for the second time in the past three months during Oct ’19, finishing down 28.2%. Broiler import volumes remained at insignificant levels relative to export volumes, as Oct ’19 imports amounted to just 1.6% of export volumes. The YOY decline in broiler export volumes more than offset the decline in import volumes, resulting in U.S. broiler net trade finishing down 2.0% YOY during Oct ’19. The YOY decline in broiler net trade was the fourth experienced throughout the past five months. ’18-’19 annual net broiler trade finished up 1.7% YOY, reaching a five year high, despite the declines experienced throughout the final months of the production season.
Combined Net Trade
Overall, combined net trade of U.S. pork, beef and broilers declined on a YOY basis for the first time in the past six months during Oct ’19, finishing down 22.7 million pounds, or 2.1%, as declines in beef and broiler net trade more than offset the increase in pork net trade.
- Oct ’19 U.S. net pork trade increased on a YOY basis for the sixth consecutive month, finishing up 4.9% to a record high seasonal level. Pork export volumes increased 3.6% on a YOY basis throughout the month, driven higher by growth in volumes destined to China, Hong Kong & Taiwan.
- Oct ’19 U.S. beef & veal export volumes declined on a YOY basis for the tenth consecutive month, finishing down 9.0%. Net beef & veal trade remained at a positive level for the fourth time in the past five months but finished at a three year seasonal low level.
- U.S. net broiler trade declined 2.0% YOY during Oct ’19 as export volumes declined on a YOY basis for the seventh time in the past nine months.
Mexico and Japan have historically been the largest importers of U.S. pork products, accounting for over half of the total U.S. pork export volumes throughout the past five years. Combined U.S. pork export volumes destined to Mexico and Japan have declined on a YOY basis by 11.5% throughout the past 12 months, however. Throughout the past 12 months, YOY increases in U.S. pork exports have been led by product destined to China, Hong Kong & Taiwan, followed by Australia, while shipments destined to Mexico and Japan have declined most significantly on a YOY basis over the period.
U.S. pork import volumes remained lower on a YOY basis for the 18th consecutive month during Oct ’19, finishing down 3.1%. The decline in pork import volumes, coupled with the increase in pork export volumes, resulted in U.S. net pork trade finishing up 4.9% YOY during Oct ’19, reaching a record high seasonal level. The YOY increase in net pork trade was the sixth experienced in a row but the smallest experienced throughout the past five months on a percentage basis. ’18-’19 annual net pork trade increased 5.6% YOY, finishing at a record high level for the second consecutive year.
Beef & Veal – Exports Remain Lower YOY However Net Trade Finishes Positive
Oct ’19 U.S. beef & veal export volumes remained lower on a YOY basis for the tenth consecutive month, finishing down 9.0% YOY. U.S. beef & veal export volumes had finished higher on a YOY basis over 30 consecutive months through the end of 2018, prior to declining on a YOY basis over the past ten months. YOY declines in U.S. beef & veal export volumes were led by shipments destined to Japan, followed by shipments destined to Mexico, while export volumes destined to Indonesia finished most significantly higher on a YOY basis throughout the month.
Japan, South Korea, China, Hong Kong & Taiwan, Mexico and Canada have historically been the largest importers of U.S. beef & veal products, combining to account for 90% of the total U.S. beef & veal export volumes throughout the past five years. Throughout the past 12 months, U.S. beef & veal export volumes destined to South Korea have increased most significantly on a YOY basis, while shipments destined to Japan have declined most significantly on a YOY basis over the period.
Oct ’19 U.S. beef & veal import volumes increased on a YOY basis for the first time in the past five months, finishing up 2.7%. Beef & veal export volumes continued to exceed import volumes for the fourth time in the past five months during Oct ’19, however, resulting in U.S. beef & veal trade finishing at a positive level. Despite remaining positive, Oct ’19 beef & veal net trade finished at a three year seasonal low level for the month of October. ’18-’19 annual beef & veal net trade finished at a positive level for the second consecutive year however beef & veal net trade remained 54.2% below previous year levels.
Broilers – Net Trade Declines YOY for the Fourth Time in Five Months, Finishes Down 2.0%
Oct ’19 U.S. broiler export volumes declined 2.6% YOY, finishing lower on a YOY basis for the seventh time in the past nine months. YOY declines in U.S. broiler export volumes were led by shipments destined to Cuba and Iraq while export volumes destined to Vietnam and Mexico increased most significantly on a YOY basis throughout the month.
Mexico has historically been the largest importer of U.S. broilers, accounting for over one fifth of the total U.S. broiler export volumes throughout the past five years. Throughout the past 12 months, U.S. broiler export volumes destined to Georgia have increased most significantly on a YOY basis, followed by volumes destined to Mexico, while shipments destined to Angola have declined most significantly on a YOY basis over the period.
U.S. broiler import volumes declined on a YOY basis for the second time in the past three months during Oct ’19, finishing down 28.2%. Broiler import volumes remained at insignificant levels relative to export volumes, as Oct ’19 imports amounted to just 1.6% of export volumes. The YOY decline in broiler export volumes more than offset the decline in import volumes, resulting in U.S. broiler net trade finishing down 2.0% YOY during Oct ’19. The YOY decline in broiler net trade was the fourth experienced throughout the past five months. ’18-’19 annual net broiler trade finished up 1.7% YOY, reaching a five year high, despite the declines experienced throughout the final months of the production season.
Combined Net Trade
Overall, combined net trade of U.S. pork, beef and broilers declined on a YOY basis for the first time in the past six months during Oct ’19, finishing down 22.7 million pounds, or 2.1%, as declines in beef and broiler net trade more than offset the increase in pork net trade.