U.S. Milk Production Update – Nov ’19
Executive Summary
U.S. milk production figures provided by USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Oct ’19. Highlights from the updated report include:
U.S. milk production volumes had finished higher on a YOY basis over 62 consecutive months from Jan ’14 – Feb ‘19, reaching the longest period of consecutive growth on record, prior to declining by a total of 0.2% from Mar ’19 – Jul ’19. Milk production volumes rebounded throughout more recent months, however, reaching a 12 month high YOY growth rates throughout Sep ’19 and Oct ’19.
YOY increases in production on a percentage basis were led by Texas (+9.3%), followed by Colorado (+6.0%) and South Dakota (+4.8%). Production finished most significantly lower YOY on a percentage basis within Virginia (-7.0%), Arizona (-5.6%) and Pennsylvania (-3.5%). Overall, 16 of the 24 states milk production figures are provided for experienced YOY increases in production throughout the month.
California milk production volumes increased on a YOY basis for the 15th consecutive month during Oct ’19, finishing up 2.8%. California accounted for 18.8% of total U.S. milk production volumes throughout the month, leading all states.
Eight of the top ten largest milk producing states experienced YOY gains in production throughout Oct ’19, as milk production within the top ten milk producing states finished higher by a weighted average of 2.2% throughout the month. The aforementioned states accounted for nearly three quarters of the total U.S. milk production experienced during Oct ’19. Production volumes outside of the top ten largest milk producing states declined by 1.3% YOY throughout the month, however.
YOY increases in milk production on an absolute basis were led by Texas, followed by California and Idaho, while YOY declines in production on an absolute basis were most significant throughout Pennsylvania, followed by Arizona.
The Sep ’19 U.S. milk cow herd figure was revised 7,000 head higher than previously stated while the Oct ’19 herd increased an additional 5,000 head, reaching a five month high level. The U.S. milk cow herd had reached a three and a half year low level prior to rebounding throughout each of the past two months. The U.S. milk cow herd currently stands at 9.327 million head, which remains 40,000 head below the previous year and 111,000 head below the 23 year high level experienced during Jan ’18.
The YOY decline in milk cow numbers was offset by continually increasing U.S. milk per cow yields experienced throughout Oct ’19. The U.S. milk per cow yield increased YOY for the 48th consecutive month throughout Oct ’19, finishing 1.7% above the previous year. The YOY increase in milk per cow yields was the second largest experienced throughout the past nine months on a percentage basis, trailing only the previous month gain. Yields experienced throughout the Western states of California, Idaho, Washington and Oregon increased 0.4% YOY while yields experienced throughout the Midwestern states of Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa and Illinois finished 1.6% higher on a YOY basis.
Oct ’19 MOM increases in milk cow herds were experienced throughout Idaho, Texas, New Mexico, Ohio, South Dakota and Utah, while the New York milk cow herd declined from the previous month.
Oct ’19 YOY declines in milk cow herds continue to be led by Pennsylvania, followed by Arizona. Texas, Idaho and Colorado experienced the largest YOY increases in their milk cow herds throughout the month.
- U.S. milk production increased 1.3% on a YOY basis throughout Oct ’19, reaching a record high seasonal level. The YOY increase in milk production was tied for the largest experienced throughout the past 12 months on a percentage basis.
- The U.S. milk cow herd increased by a total of 12,000 head throughout the past two months, rebounding from the three and a half year low level experienced throughout Aug ’19. The U.S. milk cow herd currently stands at 9.327 million head, which remains 40,000 head below the previous year and 111,000 head below the 23 year high level experienced during Jan ’18.
- U.S. milk per cow yields increased YOY for the 48th consecutive month throughout Oct ’19, finishing 1.7% above the previous year.
U.S. milk production volumes had finished higher on a YOY basis over 62 consecutive months from Jan ’14 – Feb ‘19, reaching the longest period of consecutive growth on record, prior to declining by a total of 0.2% from Mar ’19 – Jul ’19. Milk production volumes rebounded throughout more recent months, however, reaching a 12 month high YOY growth rates throughout Sep ’19 and Oct ’19.
YOY increases in production on a percentage basis were led by Texas (+9.3%), followed by Colorado (+6.0%) and South Dakota (+4.8%). Production finished most significantly lower YOY on a percentage basis within Virginia (-7.0%), Arizona (-5.6%) and Pennsylvania (-3.5%). Overall, 16 of the 24 states milk production figures are provided for experienced YOY increases in production throughout the month.
California milk production volumes increased on a YOY basis for the 15th consecutive month during Oct ’19, finishing up 2.8%. California accounted for 18.8% of total U.S. milk production volumes throughout the month, leading all states.
Eight of the top ten largest milk producing states experienced YOY gains in production throughout Oct ’19, as milk production within the top ten milk producing states finished higher by a weighted average of 2.2% throughout the month. The aforementioned states accounted for nearly three quarters of the total U.S. milk production experienced during Oct ’19. Production volumes outside of the top ten largest milk producing states declined by 1.3% YOY throughout the month, however.
YOY increases in milk production on an absolute basis were led by Texas, followed by California and Idaho, while YOY declines in production on an absolute basis were most significant throughout Pennsylvania, followed by Arizona.
The Sep ’19 U.S. milk cow herd figure was revised 7,000 head higher than previously stated while the Oct ’19 herd increased an additional 5,000 head, reaching a five month high level. The U.S. milk cow herd had reached a three and a half year low level prior to rebounding throughout each of the past two months. The U.S. milk cow herd currently stands at 9.327 million head, which remains 40,000 head below the previous year and 111,000 head below the 23 year high level experienced during Jan ’18.
The YOY decline in milk cow numbers was offset by continually increasing U.S. milk per cow yields experienced throughout Oct ’19. The U.S. milk per cow yield increased YOY for the 48th consecutive month throughout Oct ’19, finishing 1.7% above the previous year. The YOY increase in milk per cow yields was the second largest experienced throughout the past nine months on a percentage basis, trailing only the previous month gain. Yields experienced throughout the Western states of California, Idaho, Washington and Oregon increased 0.4% YOY while yields experienced throughout the Midwestern states of Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa and Illinois finished 1.6% higher on a YOY basis.
Oct ’19 MOM increases in milk cow herds were experienced throughout Idaho, Texas, New Mexico, Ohio, South Dakota and Utah, while the New York milk cow herd declined from the previous month.
Oct ’19 YOY declines in milk cow herds continue to be led by Pennsylvania, followed by Arizona. Texas, Idaho and Colorado experienced the largest YOY increases in their milk cow herds throughout the month.