U.S. Dairy Commercial Disappearance Update – Nov ’19
Executive Summary
U.S. dairy commercial disappearance figures provided by USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Sep ’19. Highlights from the updated report include:
U.S. commercial disappearance for milk used in all products on a skim-solids basis declined 0.3% YOY throughout Sep ’19, finishing lower YOY for the second consecutive month but remaining at the second highest seasonal level on record. Domestic demand declined 1.2% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 3.3% YOY increase in export demand. The YOY decline in domestic skim-solids demand was the first experienced throughout the past eight months while the YOY increase in skim-solids export demand was the first experienced throughout the past 11 months.
’18-’19 annual commercial disappearance for milk used in all products on a skim-solids basis declined 0.5% YOY from the record high levels experienced throughout the previous production season, despite domestic demand increasing 2.6%, reaching the highest annual figure on record.
Butter – Disappearance Declines 2.4% YOY, Reaches a Seven Year Low Seasonal Level
Sep ’19 U.S. butter commercial disappearance declined 2.4% YOY, reaching a seven year seasonal low level. The YOY decline in butter disappearance was the third experienced throughout the past four months. Domestic butter demand declined 1.9% YOY throughout the month while export demand remained lower on a YOY basis for the seventh consecutive month, finishing down 16.8%.
’18-’19 annual butter disappearance finished 1.5% higher YOY, reaching a record high level. Domestic disappearance increased 2.4%, also reaching the highest annual figure on record.
Sep ’19 U.S. butter domestic use and export figures outpaced production and import figures, resulting in stocks declining for the second consecutive month. Butter stocks typically decline seasonally throughout the second half of the calendar year, reaching seasonal lows throughout the months of November and December.
Cheese – Disappearance Increases YOY for the Seventh Time in Eight Months, Finishes up 3.8%
Sep ’19 U.S. cheese commercial disappearance increased 3.8% YOY, reaching a record high seasonal level. The YOY increase in cheese commercial disappearance was the seventh experienced throughout the past eight months. American cheese disappearance increased 0.8% on a YOY basis throughout the month while other-than-American cheese disappearance finished 5.7% higher. Total domestic cheese demand increased 3.4% YOY throughout the month while export demand increased 11.7% YOY.
’18-’19 annual cheese disappearance increased 2.3% to a record annual high as domestic demand increased 2.3%, also reaching the highest figure on record.
Sep ’19 U.S. cheese production and import figures outpaced domestic use and export figures, resulting in stocks increasing slightly for the second consecutive month.
Dry Whey – Disappearance Increases to a Four Year Seasonal High, Finishes up 14.5% YOY
Sep ’19 U.S. dry whey commercial disappearance increased 14.5% YOY, reaching a four year high seasonal level. Domestic dry whey demand increased 47.6% YOY throughout the month, more than offsetting a 22.2% YOY decline in export demand.
’18-’19 annual dry whey disappearance declined 9.4% YOY from the ten year high level experienced throughout the previous production season, finishing at a four year low level. Domestic disappearance increased 9.5% YOY, however, reaching a four year high level.
Sep ’19 U.S. dry whey production and import figures outpaced domestic use and export figures, resulting in stocks increasing to a six month high level.
WPC – Disappearance Declines YOY for the Eighth Consecutive Month, Finishes Down 18.0%
Sep ’19 U.S. whey protein concentrate (WPC) commercial disappearance declined 18.0% YOY, finishing lower on a YOY basis for the eighth consecutive month. Domestic WPC demand declined 28.1% YOY throughout the month while export demand declined 8.7% YOY.
’18-’19 annual WPC disappearance declined 5.8% YOY from the record high level experienced throughout the previous production season. Domestic disappearance increased 33.2% YOY, however, reaching a four year high level.
Sep ’19 U.S. WPC production and import figures outpaced domestic use and export figures, resulting in stocks increasing to a nine month high level.
NFDM/SMP – Disappearance Increases on Strong Export Demand, Finishes up 3.8% YOY
Sep ’19 U.S. nonfat dry milk (NFDM) and skim milk powder (SMP) commercial disappearance increased 3.8% YOY, reaching a five year high seasonal level and the second highest seasonal level on record. The YOY increase in NFDM/SMP commercial disappearance was the third experienced throughout the past four months. NFDM/SMP export demand increased 24.2% YOY throughout the month, more than offsetting a 33.0% YOY decline in domestic demand.
’18-’19 annual NFDM/SMP disappearance declined 4.4% YOY from the record high level experienced throughout the previous production season, despite finishing 4.5% higher on a YOY basis throughout the final third of the production season. Domestic disappearance increased 5.3%, rebounding from the 11 year low experienced throughout the previous production season.
Sep ’19 U.S. NFDM/SMP domestic use and export figures outpaced production and import figures, resulting in stocks declining to an 11 month low level. The MOM decline in NFDM/SMP stocks was the third experienced in a row.
On an absolute basis, Sep ’19 domestic commercial disappearance increased most significantly on a YOY basis for cheese and dry whey while declining most significantly for NFDM/SMP. International commercial disappearance increased most significantly on a YOY basis for NFDM/SMP, offsetting the decline in domestic consumption, while dry whey export demand finished most significantly lower YOY.
Fluid Milk – Total Milk Sales Reach a Record Low Seasonal Level, Finish Down 1.9% YOY
Aug ’19 U.S. fluid milk sales declined on a YOY basis for the 15th time in the past 16 months, finishing down 1.9% to a record low seasonal level. Sales of whole milk remained higher on a YOY basis for the fourth time in the past five months, finishing up 0.9%, however fat-free milk sales remained weak, declining by 9.9% on a YOY basis throughout the month.
’17-’18 annual total fluid milk sales declined to a record low level for the ninth consecutive year, finishing down 2.3%, as whole milk sales increased to a nine year high but fat-free milk sales declined to the lowest figure on record, down over 50% from levels experienced ten years ago. ’18-’19 YTD total fluid milk sales have declined an additional 1.6% heading into the final month of the production season.
Fat consumed within U.S. fluid milk decline on a YOY basis for the second time in the past three months during Aug ’19, finishing down 0.8%. ’17-’18 annual total fat consumed within fluid milk declined 0.7% YOY to a three year low while ’18-’19 YTD figures have declined an additional 0.3% YOY heading into the final month of the production season.
- Sep ’19 U.S. commercial disappearance for milk used in all products increased 1.2% YOY on a milk-fat basis as domestic demand increased 1.8%. Commercial disappearance for milk used in all products declined 0.3% YOY on a skim-solids basis, however, as domestic demand declined 1.2%.
- Sep ’19 U.S. cheese commercial disappearance increased 3.8% YOY, reaching a record seasonal high level, while nonfat dry milk/skim milk powder commercial disappearance also increased 3.8% YOY, finishing at the second highest seasonal level on record. Sep ’19 U.S. butter commercial disappearance declined 2.4% YOY, reaching a seven year seasonal low level, however dry whey commercial disappearance increased 14.5% YOY, finishing at a four year seasonal high.
- Aug ’19 U.S. fluid milk sales declined on a YOY basis for the 15th time in the past 16 months, finishing down 1.9% to a record low seasonal level.
U.S. commercial disappearance for milk used in all products on a skim-solids basis declined 0.3% YOY throughout Sep ’19, finishing lower YOY for the second consecutive month but remaining at the second highest seasonal level on record. Domestic demand declined 1.2% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 3.3% YOY increase in export demand. The YOY decline in domestic skim-solids demand was the first experienced throughout the past eight months while the YOY increase in skim-solids export demand was the first experienced throughout the past 11 months.
’18-’19 annual commercial disappearance for milk used in all products on a skim-solids basis declined 0.5% YOY from the record high levels experienced throughout the previous production season, despite domestic demand increasing 2.6%, reaching the highest annual figure on record.
Butter – Disappearance Declines 2.4% YOY, Reaches a Seven Year Low Seasonal Level
Sep ’19 U.S. butter commercial disappearance declined 2.4% YOY, reaching a seven year seasonal low level. The YOY decline in butter disappearance was the third experienced throughout the past four months. Domestic butter demand declined 1.9% YOY throughout the month while export demand remained lower on a YOY basis for the seventh consecutive month, finishing down 16.8%.
’18-’19 annual butter disappearance finished 1.5% higher YOY, reaching a record high level. Domestic disappearance increased 2.4%, also reaching the highest annual figure on record.
Sep ’19 U.S. butter domestic use and export figures outpaced production and import figures, resulting in stocks declining for the second consecutive month. Butter stocks typically decline seasonally throughout the second half of the calendar year, reaching seasonal lows throughout the months of November and December.
Cheese – Disappearance Increases YOY for the Seventh Time in Eight Months, Finishes up 3.8%
Sep ’19 U.S. cheese commercial disappearance increased 3.8% YOY, reaching a record high seasonal level. The YOY increase in cheese commercial disappearance was the seventh experienced throughout the past eight months. American cheese disappearance increased 0.8% on a YOY basis throughout the month while other-than-American cheese disappearance finished 5.7% higher. Total domestic cheese demand increased 3.4% YOY throughout the month while export demand increased 11.7% YOY.
’18-’19 annual cheese disappearance increased 2.3% to a record annual high as domestic demand increased 2.3%, also reaching the highest figure on record.
Sep ’19 U.S. cheese production and import figures outpaced domestic use and export figures, resulting in stocks increasing slightly for the second consecutive month.
Dry Whey – Disappearance Increases to a Four Year Seasonal High, Finishes up 14.5% YOY
Sep ’19 U.S. dry whey commercial disappearance increased 14.5% YOY, reaching a four year high seasonal level. Domestic dry whey demand increased 47.6% YOY throughout the month, more than offsetting a 22.2% YOY decline in export demand.
’18-’19 annual dry whey disappearance declined 9.4% YOY from the ten year high level experienced throughout the previous production season, finishing at a four year low level. Domestic disappearance increased 9.5% YOY, however, reaching a four year high level.
Sep ’19 U.S. dry whey production and import figures outpaced domestic use and export figures, resulting in stocks increasing to a six month high level.
WPC – Disappearance Declines YOY for the Eighth Consecutive Month, Finishes Down 18.0%
Sep ’19 U.S. whey protein concentrate (WPC) commercial disappearance declined 18.0% YOY, finishing lower on a YOY basis for the eighth consecutive month. Domestic WPC demand declined 28.1% YOY throughout the month while export demand declined 8.7% YOY.
’18-’19 annual WPC disappearance declined 5.8% YOY from the record high level experienced throughout the previous production season. Domestic disappearance increased 33.2% YOY, however, reaching a four year high level.
Sep ’19 U.S. WPC production and import figures outpaced domestic use and export figures, resulting in stocks increasing to a nine month high level.
NFDM/SMP – Disappearance Increases on Strong Export Demand, Finishes up 3.8% YOY
Sep ’19 U.S. nonfat dry milk (NFDM) and skim milk powder (SMP) commercial disappearance increased 3.8% YOY, reaching a five year high seasonal level and the second highest seasonal level on record. The YOY increase in NFDM/SMP commercial disappearance was the third experienced throughout the past four months. NFDM/SMP export demand increased 24.2% YOY throughout the month, more than offsetting a 33.0% YOY decline in domestic demand.
’18-’19 annual NFDM/SMP disappearance declined 4.4% YOY from the record high level experienced throughout the previous production season, despite finishing 4.5% higher on a YOY basis throughout the final third of the production season. Domestic disappearance increased 5.3%, rebounding from the 11 year low experienced throughout the previous production season.
Sep ’19 U.S. NFDM/SMP domestic use and export figures outpaced production and import figures, resulting in stocks declining to an 11 month low level. The MOM decline in NFDM/SMP stocks was the third experienced in a row.
On an absolute basis, Sep ’19 domestic commercial disappearance increased most significantly on a YOY basis for cheese and dry whey while declining most significantly for NFDM/SMP. International commercial disappearance increased most significantly on a YOY basis for NFDM/SMP, offsetting the decline in domestic consumption, while dry whey export demand finished most significantly lower YOY.
Fluid Milk – Total Milk Sales Reach a Record Low Seasonal Level, Finish Down 1.9% YOY
Aug ’19 U.S. fluid milk sales declined on a YOY basis for the 15th time in the past 16 months, finishing down 1.9% to a record low seasonal level. Sales of whole milk remained higher on a YOY basis for the fourth time in the past five months, finishing up 0.9%, however fat-free milk sales remained weak, declining by 9.9% on a YOY basis throughout the month.
’17-’18 annual total fluid milk sales declined to a record low level for the ninth consecutive year, finishing down 2.3%, as whole milk sales increased to a nine year high but fat-free milk sales declined to the lowest figure on record, down over 50% from levels experienced ten years ago. ’18-’19 YTD total fluid milk sales have declined an additional 1.6% heading into the final month of the production season.
Fat consumed within U.S. fluid milk decline on a YOY basis for the second time in the past three months during Aug ’19, finishing down 0.8%. ’17-’18 annual total fat consumed within fluid milk declined 0.7% YOY to a three year low while ’18-’19 YTD figures have declined an additional 0.3% YOY heading into the final month of the production season.