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U.S. Cattle & Hogs Production Update – Oct ’19
Executive Summary
U.S. livestock slaughter figures provided by USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Sep ‘19. Highlights from the updated report include:
Total 12-month rolling average red meat production finished above trendline for the 25th consecutive month throughout Sep ’19. The Sep ’19 deviation from trendline increased to a ten year high level.
Pork – Production Reaches a Record High Seasonal Level, Finishes up 8.6% YOY
Sep ’19 U.S. pork production increased 10.4% MOM and 8.6% YOY when normalizing for slaughter days, increasing on a YOY basis for the eighth time in the past nine months. Pork production reached a record high seasonal level and finished as the second largest monthly production level on record. The Sep ’19 total number of hogs slaughtered increased 7.8% YOY throughout the month while average weights/head finished 0.7% higher YOY. The MOM increase in pork production of 10.4% was greater than the ten year average August – September seasonal build of 8.0%. ’17-’18 annual pork production increased 3.1% YOY, finishing at a record high level, while ’18-’19 annual production volumes increased an additional 3.5%.
Beef – Production Declines YOY for the Second Consecutive Month, Finishes Down 0.8%
Sep ’19 U.S. beef production increased 2.7% MOM but remained 0.1% lower YOY when normalizing for slaughter days, finishing lower on a YOY basis for the second consecutive month. The Sep ’19 total number of cattle slaughtered declined 0.1% YOY throughout the month while average weights/head finished 0.5% lower YOY. The MOM increase in beef production of 2.7% was slightly smaller than the ten year average August – September seasonal build of 3.6%. Despite declining on a YOY basis, pork production remained at the second highest seasonal level experienced throughout the past 16 years, finishing 1.5% above three year average seasonal figures. ’17-’18 annual beef production increased 3.2% YOY, finishing at a 15 year high level, while ’18-’19 annual production volumes increased an additional 0.6%, despite the recently experienced YOY declines.
- Sep ’19 U.S. commercial red meat production increased 3.7% on a YOY basis, reaching a record high seasonal level. The YOY increase in total red meat production was the eighth experienced throughout the past nine months.
- Sep ’19 U.S. pork production increased 8.6% on a YOY basis, reaching a record high seasonal level. The total number of hogs slaughtered increased 7.8% YOY throughout the month while average weights/head finished 0.7% higher.
- Sep ’19 U.S. beef production declined 0.1% on a YOY basis but remained at the second highest seasonal production level experienced throughout the past 16 years. The total number of cattle slaughtered declined 0.1% YOY throughout the month while average weights/head finished 0.5% lower.
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