U.S. Dairy Cold Storage Update – Sep ’19
Executive Summary
U.S. cold storage figures provided by USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Aug ’19. Highlights from the updated report include:
According to USDA, Aug ’19 U.S. butter stocks declined seasonally from the 13 month high level experienced throughout the previous month but finished higher on a YOY basis for the second consecutive month, finishing up 4.9%. Butter stocks reached the second highest seasonal level experienced throughout the past 26 years, trailing only the Aug ’16 stocks figure. The MOM decline in butter stocks of 24.5 million pounds, or 7.4%, was fairly consistent with the ten year average July – August seasonal decline of 24.8 million pounds, or 10.0%. U.S. butter stocks typically build seasonally throughout the first half of the calendar year after reaching seasonal low levels throughout the month of November but begin to decline seasonally throughout the third quarter of the year.
On a days of usage basis, Aug ’19 U.S. butter stocks also finished higher YOY. When assuming 12-month rolling average YOY changes in usage rates and known stock values for the month of August, butter stocks on a days of usage basis increased YOY for the third consecutive month, finishing up 3.5%.
Cheese – Stocks Rebound to a Record High Seasonal Level, Finish up 0.2% YOY
Aug ’19 U.S. cheese stocks increased 0.1% MOM and 0.2% YOY, finishing higher on a YOY basis for the first time in the past three months and reaching a record high seasonal level for the month of August. Other-than-American cheese stocks increased 3.8% YOY throughout the month, more than offsetting a 2.4% YOY decline in American cheese stocks. The MOM seasonal increase in cheese stocks of 0.7 million pounds, or 0.1%, was a contraseasonal move when compared to the ten year average July – August seasonal decline of 25.5 million pounds, or 2.1%. Cheese stocks had declined contraseasonally throughout the months of June and July.
On a days of usage basis, Aug ’19 U.S. cheese stocks remained lower YOY. When assuming 12-month rolling average YOY changes in usage rates and known stock values for the month of August, cheese stocks on a days of usage basis declined YOY for the fourth consecutive month, finishing down 1.9%.
Combined Dairy Product Stocks – July Stocks Lower YOY for the Third Consecutive Month, Down 3.7%
Jul ’19 combined stocks of butter, cheese, dry whey and nonfat dry milk (NFDM) finished lower on a YOY basis for the third consecutive month, finishing down 3.7%. The YOY decline in combined dairy product stocks was the largest experienced throughout the past four and a half years on a percentage basis. Combined stocks of butter, cheese, dry whey and NFDM are expected to remain lower on a YOY basis for the fourth consecutive month throughout Aug ’19 when using actual butter and cheese stock figures and previous month YOY changes in dry whey and NFDM stocks, declining by an estimated 0.9%. Aug ’19 dry whey and NFDM stock figures will be available October 3rd.
- Aug ’19 U.S. butter stocks declined seasonally but remained 4.9% above previous year figures, finishing higher on a YOY basis for the second consecutive month.
- Aug ’19 U.S. cheese stocks increased to a record high seasonal level for the month of August, finishing 0.2% higher on a YOY basis. The YOY increase in cheese stocks was the first experienced throughout the past three months.
According to USDA, Aug ’19 U.S. butter stocks declined seasonally from the 13 month high level experienced throughout the previous month but finished higher on a YOY basis for the second consecutive month, finishing up 4.9%. Butter stocks reached the second highest seasonal level experienced throughout the past 26 years, trailing only the Aug ’16 stocks figure. The MOM decline in butter stocks of 24.5 million pounds, or 7.4%, was fairly consistent with the ten year average July – August seasonal decline of 24.8 million pounds, or 10.0%. U.S. butter stocks typically build seasonally throughout the first half of the calendar year after reaching seasonal low levels throughout the month of November but begin to decline seasonally throughout the third quarter of the year.
On a days of usage basis, Aug ’19 U.S. butter stocks also finished higher YOY. When assuming 12-month rolling average YOY changes in usage rates and known stock values for the month of August, butter stocks on a days of usage basis increased YOY for the third consecutive month, finishing up 3.5%.
Cheese – Stocks Rebound to a Record High Seasonal Level, Finish up 0.2% YOY
Aug ’19 U.S. cheese stocks increased 0.1% MOM and 0.2% YOY, finishing higher on a YOY basis for the first time in the past three months and reaching a record high seasonal level for the month of August. Other-than-American cheese stocks increased 3.8% YOY throughout the month, more than offsetting a 2.4% YOY decline in American cheese stocks. The MOM seasonal increase in cheese stocks of 0.7 million pounds, or 0.1%, was a contraseasonal move when compared to the ten year average July – August seasonal decline of 25.5 million pounds, or 2.1%. Cheese stocks had declined contraseasonally throughout the months of June and July.
On a days of usage basis, Aug ’19 U.S. cheese stocks remained lower YOY. When assuming 12-month rolling average YOY changes in usage rates and known stock values for the month of August, cheese stocks on a days of usage basis declined YOY for the fourth consecutive month, finishing down 1.9%.
Combined Dairy Product Stocks – July Stocks Lower YOY for the Third Consecutive Month, Down 3.7%
Jul ’19 combined stocks of butter, cheese, dry whey and nonfat dry milk (NFDM) finished lower on a YOY basis for the third consecutive month, finishing down 3.7%. The YOY decline in combined dairy product stocks was the largest experienced throughout the past four and a half years on a percentage basis. Combined stocks of butter, cheese, dry whey and NFDM are expected to remain lower on a YOY basis for the fourth consecutive month throughout Aug ’19 when using actual butter and cheese stock figures and previous month YOY changes in dry whey and NFDM stocks, declining by an estimated 0.9%. Aug ’19 dry whey and NFDM stock figures will be available October 3rd.