U.S. Dairy Commercial Disappearance Update – Aug ’19
Executive Summary
U.S. dairy commercial disappearance figures provided by USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Jun ’19. Highlights from the updated report include:
U.S. commercial disappearance for milk used in all products on a skim-solids basis increased 1.7% YOY throughout Jun ’19, finishing higher YOY for the second consecutive month and reaching a record high seasonal level. Domestic demand increased 5.9% YOY on a skim-solids basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 14.1% YOY decline in export demand. ’17-’18 annual commercial disappearance for milk used in all products on a skim-solids basis finished 2.6% higher YOY, reaching a record high level, as domestic disappearance increased 0.1%, finishing at the second highest figure on record. ’18-’19 YTD commercial disappearance for milk used in all products on a skim-solids basis has declined by 0.6% YOY throughout the first three quarters of the production season, however, despite the most recent YOY increase.
Butter – Disappearance Declines to an Eight Year Seasonal Low Level, Finishes Down 7.1% YOY
Jun ’19 U.S. butter commercial disappearance declined 7.1% YOY, reaching an eight year seasonal low level for the month of June. The YOY decline in butter commercial disappearance was the first experienced throughout the past three months. Domestic butter demand declined 5.5% YOY throughout the month while export demand declined 44.5% YOY. ’17-’18 annual butter disappearance finished 1.7% higher YOY, reaching a four year high, as domestic butter disappearance increased 1.0%, reaching the highest figure on record. ’18-’19 YTD butter commercial disappearance has increased an additional 2.8% YOY throughout the first three quarters of the production season, despite the most recent decline.
Jun ’19 U.S. total combined butter production and import figures outpaced total disappearance figures, resulting in stocks increasing for the seventh consecutive month and reaching a 12 month high level. Butter stocks typically increase seasonally throughout the first half of the calendar year after reaching seasonal lows throughout the months of November and December.
Cheese – Disappearance Increases to a Record High Seasonal Level, Finishes up 1.5% YOY
Jun ’19 U.S. cheese commercial disappearance increased 1.5% YOY to a record high seasonal level, finishing higher on a YOY basis for the fifth consecutive month. Other-than-American cheese disappearance increased 3.1% YOY throughout the month, more than offsetting a 0.9% YOY decline in American cheese disappearance. Total domestic cheese demand increased 2.6% YOY throughout the month, more than offsetting a 12.2% YOY decline in export demand. ’17-’18 annual cheese disappearance increased 2.8% to a record annual high as domestic demand increased 2.7%, also reaching the highest figure on record. ’18-’19 YTD cheese commercial disappearance has increased an additional 2.4% YOY throughout the first three quarters of the production season.
Jun ’19 U.S. total cheese disappearance figures outpaced combined production and import figures, resulting in stocks declining to a four month low level.
Dry Whey – Disappearance Declines YOY for the Sixth Time in Seven Months, Finishes Down 9.2%
Jun ’19 U.S. dry whey commercial disappearance declined 9.2% YOY to a six year seasonal low level, finishing lower on a YOY basis for the sixth time in the past seven months. Dry whey export demand declined 37.1% YOY throughout the month, more than offsetting a 19.1% YOY increase in domestic demand. ’17-’18 annual dry whey disappearance increased 8.7% YOY, finishing at a ten year high, as domestic demand finished up 6.4%. ’18-’19 YTD dry whey commercial disappearance has declined 13.7% YOY throughout the first three quarters of the production season, however, and is on pace to reach a four year low level.
Jun ’19 U.S. total combined dry whey production and import figures outpaced total disappearance figures, resulting in stocks rebounding from the two and a half year low levels experienced throughout the previous month.
WPC – Disappearance Declines YOY for the Fifth Consecutive Month, Finishes Down 7.8%
Jun ’19 U.S. whey protein concentrate (WPC) commercial disappearance declined 7.8% YOY, finishing lower on a YOY basis for the fifth consecutive month. Domestic WPC demand declined 37.5% YOY throughout the month, more than offsetting a 28.5% YOY increase in export demand. ’17-’18 annual WPC disappearance increased 9.6% YOY, reaching a record high level, despite domestic demand declining to a six year seasonal low, finishing down 2.4% YOY. ’18-’19 YTD WPC commercial disappearance has declined 2.8% YOY throughout the first three quarters of the production season, however.
Jun ’19 U.S. total WMP disappearance figures outpaced combined production and import figures, resulting in stocks declining from the previous month.
NFDM/SMP – Disappearance Increases to a Three Year Seasonal High Level, Finishes up 8.9% YOY
Jun ’19 U.S. nonfat dry milk (NFDM) and skim milk powder (SMP) commercial disappearance increased 8.9% YOY, reaching a three year seasonal high level. The YOY increase in NFDM/SMP commercial disappearance was just the second experienced throughout the past eight months. Domestic NFDM/SMP demand increased 86.7% YOY throughout the month, more than offsetting a 24.7% YOY decline in export demand. ’17-’18 annual NFDM/SMP disappearance increased 7.7% YOY to a record annual high, despite domestic demand declining 5.8% YOY, reaching an 11 year low. ’18-’19 YTD NFDM/SMP commercial disappearance has declined 6.7% YOY throughout the first three quarters of the production season, however, despite the most recent YOY increase.
Jun ’19 U.S. total combined NFDM/SMP production and import figures outpaced total disappearance figures, resulting in stocks increasing to a three month high level.
On an absolute basis, Jun ’19 domestic commercial disappearance increased most significantly on a YOY basis for NFDM/SMP, followed by cheese, while declining most significantly for WPC and butter. International commercial disappearance declined on a YOY basis across all products with the exception of WPC, led by declines experienced for NFDM/SMP and dry whey.
Fluid Milk – Total Milk Sales Decline to a Record Low Monthly Figure, Finish Down 4.1% YOY
Jun ’19 U.S. fluid milk sales remained lower on a YOY basis for the 24th time in the past 25 months, finishing down 4.1% to the lowest monthly figure on record. Sales of fat-free milk sales remained particularly weak, declining by 11.4% on a YOY basis and also reaching the lowest monthly figure on record. ’17-’18 annual total fluid milk sales declined to a record low level for the ninth consecutive year, finished down 2.3%, as whole milk sales increased to a nine year high but fat-free milk sales declined to the lowest figure on record, down over 50% from levels experienced ten years ago. ’18-’19 YTD total fluid milk sales have declined an additional 1.7% throughout the first three quarters of the production season.
Fat consumed within U.S. fluid milk declined on a YOY basis for the first time in the past three months during Jun ’19 as total consumption finished down 3.1%, reaching the lowest monthly figure on record. ’17-’18 annual total fat consumed within fluid milk declined 0.7% YOY to a three year low while ’18-’19 YTD figures have declined an additional 0.3% YOY throughout the first three quarters of the production season.
- Jun ’19 U.S. commercial disappearance for milk used in all products declined 0.7% YOY on a milk-fat basis but finished 1.7% higher YOY on a skim-solids basis. Disappearance on a skim-solids basis reached a record high seasonal level while disappearance on a milk-fat basis remained at the second highest seasonal level on record. Domestic demand increased 0.2% YOY on a milk-fat basis and 5.9% YOY on a skim-solids basis throughout the month however export volumes remained lower YOY.
- Jun ’19 U.S. cheese and nonfat dry milk/skim milk powder commercial disappearance finished higher on a YOY basis, finishing up 1.5% and 8.9%, respectively. Jun ’19 U.S. cheese disappearance reached a record high seasonal level throughout the month while nonfat dry milk/skim milk powder disappearance increased to a three year high seasonal level. Commercial disappearance of butter declined 7.1% YOY during Jun ’19, however, finishing at an eight year seasonal low level, while dry whey and whey protein concentrate disappearance also finished lower on a YOY basis.
- Jun ’19 U.S. fluid milk sales remained lower on a YOY basis for the 24th time in the past 25 months, declining by 4.1% to the lowest monthly figure on record. Sales of fat-free milk remained particularly weak, declining by 11.4% on a YOY basis throughout the month, while total fat consumed within U.S. fluid milk declined 3.1% YOY.
U.S. commercial disappearance for milk used in all products on a skim-solids basis increased 1.7% YOY throughout Jun ’19, finishing higher YOY for the second consecutive month and reaching a record high seasonal level. Domestic demand increased 5.9% YOY on a skim-solids basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 14.1% YOY decline in export demand. ’17-’18 annual commercial disappearance for milk used in all products on a skim-solids basis finished 2.6% higher YOY, reaching a record high level, as domestic disappearance increased 0.1%, finishing at the second highest figure on record. ’18-’19 YTD commercial disappearance for milk used in all products on a skim-solids basis has declined by 0.6% YOY throughout the first three quarters of the production season, however, despite the most recent YOY increase.
Butter – Disappearance Declines to an Eight Year Seasonal Low Level, Finishes Down 7.1% YOY
Jun ’19 U.S. butter commercial disappearance declined 7.1% YOY, reaching an eight year seasonal low level for the month of June. The YOY decline in butter commercial disappearance was the first experienced throughout the past three months. Domestic butter demand declined 5.5% YOY throughout the month while export demand declined 44.5% YOY. ’17-’18 annual butter disappearance finished 1.7% higher YOY, reaching a four year high, as domestic butter disappearance increased 1.0%, reaching the highest figure on record. ’18-’19 YTD butter commercial disappearance has increased an additional 2.8% YOY throughout the first three quarters of the production season, despite the most recent decline.
Jun ’19 U.S. total combined butter production and import figures outpaced total disappearance figures, resulting in stocks increasing for the seventh consecutive month and reaching a 12 month high level. Butter stocks typically increase seasonally throughout the first half of the calendar year after reaching seasonal lows throughout the months of November and December.
Cheese – Disappearance Increases to a Record High Seasonal Level, Finishes up 1.5% YOY
Jun ’19 U.S. cheese commercial disappearance increased 1.5% YOY to a record high seasonal level, finishing higher on a YOY basis for the fifth consecutive month. Other-than-American cheese disappearance increased 3.1% YOY throughout the month, more than offsetting a 0.9% YOY decline in American cheese disappearance. Total domestic cheese demand increased 2.6% YOY throughout the month, more than offsetting a 12.2% YOY decline in export demand. ’17-’18 annual cheese disappearance increased 2.8% to a record annual high as domestic demand increased 2.7%, also reaching the highest figure on record. ’18-’19 YTD cheese commercial disappearance has increased an additional 2.4% YOY throughout the first three quarters of the production season.
Jun ’19 U.S. total cheese disappearance figures outpaced combined production and import figures, resulting in stocks declining to a four month low level.
Dry Whey – Disappearance Declines YOY for the Sixth Time in Seven Months, Finishes Down 9.2%
Jun ’19 U.S. dry whey commercial disappearance declined 9.2% YOY to a six year seasonal low level, finishing lower on a YOY basis for the sixth time in the past seven months. Dry whey export demand declined 37.1% YOY throughout the month, more than offsetting a 19.1% YOY increase in domestic demand. ’17-’18 annual dry whey disappearance increased 8.7% YOY, finishing at a ten year high, as domestic demand finished up 6.4%. ’18-’19 YTD dry whey commercial disappearance has declined 13.7% YOY throughout the first three quarters of the production season, however, and is on pace to reach a four year low level.
Jun ’19 U.S. total combined dry whey production and import figures outpaced total disappearance figures, resulting in stocks rebounding from the two and a half year low levels experienced throughout the previous month.
WPC – Disappearance Declines YOY for the Fifth Consecutive Month, Finishes Down 7.8%
Jun ’19 U.S. whey protein concentrate (WPC) commercial disappearance declined 7.8% YOY, finishing lower on a YOY basis for the fifth consecutive month. Domestic WPC demand declined 37.5% YOY throughout the month, more than offsetting a 28.5% YOY increase in export demand. ’17-’18 annual WPC disappearance increased 9.6% YOY, reaching a record high level, despite domestic demand declining to a six year seasonal low, finishing down 2.4% YOY. ’18-’19 YTD WPC commercial disappearance has declined 2.8% YOY throughout the first three quarters of the production season, however.
Jun ’19 U.S. total WMP disappearance figures outpaced combined production and import figures, resulting in stocks declining from the previous month.
NFDM/SMP – Disappearance Increases to a Three Year Seasonal High Level, Finishes up 8.9% YOY
Jun ’19 U.S. nonfat dry milk (NFDM) and skim milk powder (SMP) commercial disappearance increased 8.9% YOY, reaching a three year seasonal high level. The YOY increase in NFDM/SMP commercial disappearance was just the second experienced throughout the past eight months. Domestic NFDM/SMP demand increased 86.7% YOY throughout the month, more than offsetting a 24.7% YOY decline in export demand. ’17-’18 annual NFDM/SMP disappearance increased 7.7% YOY to a record annual high, despite domestic demand declining 5.8% YOY, reaching an 11 year low. ’18-’19 YTD NFDM/SMP commercial disappearance has declined 6.7% YOY throughout the first three quarters of the production season, however, despite the most recent YOY increase.
Jun ’19 U.S. total combined NFDM/SMP production and import figures outpaced total disappearance figures, resulting in stocks increasing to a three month high level.
On an absolute basis, Jun ’19 domestic commercial disappearance increased most significantly on a YOY basis for NFDM/SMP, followed by cheese, while declining most significantly for WPC and butter. International commercial disappearance declined on a YOY basis across all products with the exception of WPC, led by declines experienced for NFDM/SMP and dry whey.
Fluid Milk – Total Milk Sales Decline to a Record Low Monthly Figure, Finish Down 4.1% YOY
Jun ’19 U.S. fluid milk sales remained lower on a YOY basis for the 24th time in the past 25 months, finishing down 4.1% to the lowest monthly figure on record. Sales of fat-free milk sales remained particularly weak, declining by 11.4% on a YOY basis and also reaching the lowest monthly figure on record. ’17-’18 annual total fluid milk sales declined to a record low level for the ninth consecutive year, finished down 2.3%, as whole milk sales increased to a nine year high but fat-free milk sales declined to the lowest figure on record, down over 50% from levels experienced ten years ago. ’18-’19 YTD total fluid milk sales have declined an additional 1.7% throughout the first three quarters of the production season.
Fat consumed within U.S. fluid milk declined on a YOY basis for the first time in the past three months during Jun ’19 as total consumption finished down 3.1%, reaching the lowest monthly figure on record. ’17-’18 annual total fat consumed within fluid milk declined 0.7% YOY to a three year low while ’18-’19 YTD figures have declined an additional 0.3% YOY throughout the first three quarters of the production season.