U.S. Dairy Dry Product Stocks Update – Jul ’18
Executive Summary
U.S. dairy dry product stock figures provided by USDA were recently updated with values spanning through May ’18. Highlights from the updated report include:
May ’18 month-end dry whey stocks increased 15.2% MOM from the 15 month low levels experienced during the previous month but remained lower on a YOY basis for the third consecutive month, finishing down 7.8%. Dry whey stocks finished 3.6% below three year average seasonal figures for the month of May, finishing below three year average figures for the second consecutive month. The MOM build in dry whey stocks of 10.4 million pounds, or 15.2%, was significantly greater than the ten year average April – May seasonal build in dry whey stocks of 0.9 million pounds, or 1.7%, however. Dry whey production remained higher on a YOY basis for the 15th time in the past 16 month, finishing up 3.2%, contributing to the build in stocks.
On a days of usage basis, May ’18 U.S. dry whey stocks also finished lower YOY. When assuming 12 month rolling average YOY usage rates and known stock values for the month of May, dry whey stocks on a days of usage basis finished down 19.1% YOY.
Nonfat Dry Milk – Stocks Decline to a 13 Month Low, Finish Down 3.1% YOY
May ’18 month-end nonfat dry milk (NFDM) stocks declined 0.7% MOM to a 13 month low while also finishing 3.1% lower on a YOY basis. The YOY decline in NFDM stocks was the first experienced throughout the past 16 months. May ’18 NFDM stocks remained 5.3% above three year average seasonal figures for the month of May, however. The MOM decline in NFDM stocks of 1.9 million pounds, or 0.7%, was a contraseasonal move when compared to the ten year average April – May seasonal build in NFDM stocks of 2.6 million pounds, or 1.6%. NFDM production declined 5.3% MOM on a daily average basis and 4.5% YOY throughout May ’18, contributing to the decline in stocks.
On a days of usage basis, May ’18 U.S. NFDM stocks also finished lower YOY. When assuming 12 month rolling average YOY usage rates and known stock values for the month of May, NFDM stocks on a days of usage basis finished down 3.5% YOY.
- May ’18 U.S. dry whey stocks rebounded from the 15 month low levels experienced during the previous month but remained 7.8% lower on a YOY basis. The YOY decline in dry whey stocks was the third experienced in a row.
- May ’18 U.S. nonfat dry milk stocks declined to a 13 month low, finishing 3.1% lower YOY. The YOY decline in nonfat dry milk stocks was the first experienced throughout the past 16 months.
May ’18 month-end dry whey stocks increased 15.2% MOM from the 15 month low levels experienced during the previous month but remained lower on a YOY basis for the third consecutive month, finishing down 7.8%. Dry whey stocks finished 3.6% below three year average seasonal figures for the month of May, finishing below three year average figures for the second consecutive month. The MOM build in dry whey stocks of 10.4 million pounds, or 15.2%, was significantly greater than the ten year average April – May seasonal build in dry whey stocks of 0.9 million pounds, or 1.7%, however. Dry whey production remained higher on a YOY basis for the 15th time in the past 16 month, finishing up 3.2%, contributing to the build in stocks.
On a days of usage basis, May ’18 U.S. dry whey stocks also finished lower YOY. When assuming 12 month rolling average YOY usage rates and known stock values for the month of May, dry whey stocks on a days of usage basis finished down 19.1% YOY.
Nonfat Dry Milk – Stocks Decline to a 13 Month Low, Finish Down 3.1% YOY
May ’18 month-end nonfat dry milk (NFDM) stocks declined 0.7% MOM to a 13 month low while also finishing 3.1% lower on a YOY basis. The YOY decline in NFDM stocks was the first experienced throughout the past 16 months. May ’18 NFDM stocks remained 5.3% above three year average seasonal figures for the month of May, however. The MOM decline in NFDM stocks of 1.9 million pounds, or 0.7%, was a contraseasonal move when compared to the ten year average April – May seasonal build in NFDM stocks of 2.6 million pounds, or 1.6%. NFDM production declined 5.3% MOM on a daily average basis and 4.5% YOY throughout May ’18, contributing to the decline in stocks.
On a days of usage basis, May ’18 U.S. NFDM stocks also finished lower YOY. When assuming 12 month rolling average YOY usage rates and known stock values for the month of May, NFDM stocks on a days of usage basis finished down 3.5% YOY.