U.S. Dairy Commercial Disappearance Update – Jun ’18
Executive Summary
U.S. dairy commercial disappearance figures provided by USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Apr ’18. Highlights from the updated report include:
Butter – Disappearance Finishes Flat YOY as Strong Exports Offset Lower Domestic Demand
Apr ’18 U.S. butter commercial disappearance finished flat on a YOY basis, remaining at a three year seasonal high for the month of April. A 1.2% YOY decline in domestic butter demand was offset by a 53.1% YOY increase in export demand experienced throughout the month. ’16-’17 annual U.S. butter disappearance finished 3.4% higher YOY, reaching a three year high, as domestic butter disappearance increased 2.2%, reaching the highest figure on record. ’17-’18 YTD disappearance has increased an additional 2.2% throughout the first seven months of the production season.
Apr ’18 U.S. butter combined production and import figures outpaced total disappearance figures, resulting in stocks increasing from the previous month, finishing at a five year seasonal high for the month of April. The monthly increase in butter stocks was the fifth experienced in a row. U.S. butter stocks typically reach seasonal lows throughout the months of November and December, prior to increasing seasonally throughout the first half of the calendar year.
Cheese – Disappearance Increases to a Record Seasonal High, Finishes up 2.6% YOY
Apr ’18 U.S. cheese commercial disappearance increased 2.6% YOY, finishing at the highest seasonal figure on record for the month of April. Commercial disappearance of cheese has finished higher over nine consecutive months through Apr ’18. American cheese disappearance increased 5.8% YOY while other-than-American cheese disappearance finished 0.5% higher throughout the month. Total domestic cheese demand increased 1.4% YOY throughout the month while export volumes finished 22.3% higher. Cheese export figures have finished higher on a YOY basis over 18 of the past 19 months through Apr ’18. ’16-’17 annual U.S. cheese disappearance increased 3.7% to a record annual high as domestic demand increased 2.8% to a record high while export demand finished up 20.5%. ’17-’18 YTD disappearance is up an additional 3.1% throughout the first seven months of the production season.
Apr ’18 U.S. cheese combined production and import figures outpaced total disappearance figures, resulting in stocks increasing from the previous month, finishing at a record seasonal high for the month of April. U.S. cheese stocks typically reach seasonal lows throughout the months of October and November, prior to increasing seasonally throughout the first half of the calendar year.
Dry Whey – Disappearance Remains Strong, Finishes up 19.7% YOY to a Ten Year Seasonal High
Apr ’18 U.S. dry whey commercial disappearance remained higher on a YOY basis for the tenth consecutive month, finishing up 19.7% to a ten year seasonal high for the month of April. Domestic dry whey demand increased 31.2% YOY throughout the month while export demand finished 7.6% higher. The YOY increase in dry whey export volumes was the 20th experienced throughout the past 22 months. ’16-’17 annual U.S. dry whey disappearance declined 2.0% YOY from the four year high experienced during the previous year as a 17.0% decline in domestic demand more than offset a 22.2% increase in export demand. ’17-’18 YTD disappearance has rebounded by 20.6% throughout the first seven months of the production season.
Apr ’18 disappearance of U.S. dry whey outpaced total production and import volumes, resulting in stocks declining for the fifth consecutive month and finishing at a 15 month low, overall. U.S. dry whey stocks finished at a four year seasonal low for the month of April.
WPC – Disappearance Increases to a Four Year Seasonal High, Finishes up 8.6% YOY
Apr ’18 U.S. whey protein concentrate (WPC) commercial disappearance increased 8.6% YOY, finishing at a four year seasonal high for the month of April. Domestic WPC demand declined 72.0% YOY throughout the month however the decline in domestic demand was more than offset by an 87.0% YOY increase in export demand. ’16-’17 annual U.S. WPC disappearance declined 5.5% YOY from the record high levels experienced throughout the previous production season as a 14.2% decline in domestic demand more than offset a 2.0% increase in export demand. ’17-’18 YTD disappearance has rebounded by 4.8% throughout the first seven months of the production season.
Apr ’18 disappearance of U.S. WPC outpaced total production and import volumes, resulting in stocks declining for the third consecutive month. U.S. WPC stocks had reached a record monthly high during Jan ’18, prior to declining throughout the past three months.
NFDM/SMP – Disappearance Increases to a Record Seasonal High, Finishes up 18.4% YOY
Apr ’18 U.S. nonfat dry milk (NFDM) and skim milk powder (SMP) commercial disappearance increased 18.4% YOY, finishing at the highest seasonal figure on record for the month of April. NFDM/SMP commercial disappearance has finished higher over four of the past five months through Apr ’18. Domestic NFDM/SMP demand declined 8.7% YOY throughout the month, however the decline was more than offset by a 36.2% YOY increase in export demand. ’16-’17 annual U.S. NFDM/SMP disappearance declined 0.3% YOY to a three year low as a 14.3% decline in domestic demand more than offset a 11.8% increase in export volumes. ’17-’18 YTD disappearance has rebounded by 8.3% throughout the first seven months of the production season.
Apr ’18 disappearance of U.S. NFDM/SMP outpaced total production and import volumes, resulting in stocks declining for the fourth consecutive month. U.S. NFDM/SMP stocks finished at a 12 month low, overall, but remained at a record seasonal high for the month of April.
Fluid Milk – Total Milk Sales Increase 0.4% YOY, Remain at the Second Lowest April Seasonal Figure
Apr ’18 U.S. fluid milk sales finished slightly higher on a YOY basis for the first time in the past 11 months, finishing up 0.4%. Despite finishing higher on a YOY basis, Apr ’18 fluid milk sales remained at the second lowest seasonal figure on record for the month of April. Sales of whole milk increased on a YOY basis for the 11th time in the past 12 months, finishing up 2.7% YOY, however fat-free milk sales remained weak, declining by 7.4%. ’16-’17 annual U.S. total fluid milk sales declined to a record low for the eighth consecutive year, finished down 1.7%, while ’17-’18 YTD sales remain down an additional 1.6% throughout the first seven months of the production season. Annual whole milk sales increased 3.1% throughout the ’16-’17 production season however annual fat-free milk sales declined 11.8%.
Fat consumed within U.S. fluid milk increased on a YOY basis for the third time in the past four months during Apr ’18 as total consumption finished up 1.5%. ’16-’17 annual total fat consumed within U.S. fluid milk increased 0.2% YOY, finishing at a four year high, while ’17-’18 YTD fat consumption within U.S. fluid milk is up an additional 0.2% throughout the first seven months of the production season.
Overall, domestic commercial disappearance increased most significantly on a YOY basis for cheese, while WPC domestic commercial disappearance finished most significantly lower YOY. International commercial disappearance finished higher across all products on a YOY basis throughout the month, led by NFDM/SMP export volumes.
- Apr ’18 U.S. commercial disappearance for milk used in all products increased to a record seasonal high on both a milk-fat and skim-solids basis, finishing up 0.6% YOY and 4.5% YOY, respectively. Commercial disappearance on a skim-solids basis reached a new monthly record high level throughout the month. Seasonal record high commercial disappearance levels were experienced despite YOY reductions in domestic demand.
- Apr ’18 U.S. cheese and nonfat dry milk/skim milk powder commercial disappearance each increased to new record seasonal highs throughout the month while whey protein concentrate and dry whey commercial disappearance finished at four and ten year seasonal highs, respectively. Butter commercial disappearance finished flat on a YOY basis throughout the month, remaining at a three year seasonal high.
- U.S. fluid milk sales increased on a YOY basis for the first time in the past 11 months during Apr ’18 as total sales finished up 0.4%. Despite finishing higher on a YOY basis, Apr ’18 fluid milk sales remained at the second lowest seasonal figure on record for the month of April. Sales of fat-free milk remained particularly weak, declining by 7.4% YOY throughout the month.
Butter – Disappearance Finishes Flat YOY as Strong Exports Offset Lower Domestic Demand
Apr ’18 U.S. butter commercial disappearance finished flat on a YOY basis, remaining at a three year seasonal high for the month of April. A 1.2% YOY decline in domestic butter demand was offset by a 53.1% YOY increase in export demand experienced throughout the month. ’16-’17 annual U.S. butter disappearance finished 3.4% higher YOY, reaching a three year high, as domestic butter disappearance increased 2.2%, reaching the highest figure on record. ’17-’18 YTD disappearance has increased an additional 2.2% throughout the first seven months of the production season.
Apr ’18 U.S. butter combined production and import figures outpaced total disappearance figures, resulting in stocks increasing from the previous month, finishing at a five year seasonal high for the month of April. The monthly increase in butter stocks was the fifth experienced in a row. U.S. butter stocks typically reach seasonal lows throughout the months of November and December, prior to increasing seasonally throughout the first half of the calendar year.
Cheese – Disappearance Increases to a Record Seasonal High, Finishes up 2.6% YOY
Apr ’18 U.S. cheese commercial disappearance increased 2.6% YOY, finishing at the highest seasonal figure on record for the month of April. Commercial disappearance of cheese has finished higher over nine consecutive months through Apr ’18. American cheese disappearance increased 5.8% YOY while other-than-American cheese disappearance finished 0.5% higher throughout the month. Total domestic cheese demand increased 1.4% YOY throughout the month while export volumes finished 22.3% higher. Cheese export figures have finished higher on a YOY basis over 18 of the past 19 months through Apr ’18. ’16-’17 annual U.S. cheese disappearance increased 3.7% to a record annual high as domestic demand increased 2.8% to a record high while export demand finished up 20.5%. ’17-’18 YTD disappearance is up an additional 3.1% throughout the first seven months of the production season.
Apr ’18 U.S. cheese combined production and import figures outpaced total disappearance figures, resulting in stocks increasing from the previous month, finishing at a record seasonal high for the month of April. U.S. cheese stocks typically reach seasonal lows throughout the months of October and November, prior to increasing seasonally throughout the first half of the calendar year.
Dry Whey – Disappearance Remains Strong, Finishes up 19.7% YOY to a Ten Year Seasonal High
Apr ’18 U.S. dry whey commercial disappearance remained higher on a YOY basis for the tenth consecutive month, finishing up 19.7% to a ten year seasonal high for the month of April. Domestic dry whey demand increased 31.2% YOY throughout the month while export demand finished 7.6% higher. The YOY increase in dry whey export volumes was the 20th experienced throughout the past 22 months. ’16-’17 annual U.S. dry whey disappearance declined 2.0% YOY from the four year high experienced during the previous year as a 17.0% decline in domestic demand more than offset a 22.2% increase in export demand. ’17-’18 YTD disappearance has rebounded by 20.6% throughout the first seven months of the production season.
Apr ’18 disappearance of U.S. dry whey outpaced total production and import volumes, resulting in stocks declining for the fifth consecutive month and finishing at a 15 month low, overall. U.S. dry whey stocks finished at a four year seasonal low for the month of April.
WPC – Disappearance Increases to a Four Year Seasonal High, Finishes up 8.6% YOY
Apr ’18 U.S. whey protein concentrate (WPC) commercial disappearance increased 8.6% YOY, finishing at a four year seasonal high for the month of April. Domestic WPC demand declined 72.0% YOY throughout the month however the decline in domestic demand was more than offset by an 87.0% YOY increase in export demand. ’16-’17 annual U.S. WPC disappearance declined 5.5% YOY from the record high levels experienced throughout the previous production season as a 14.2% decline in domestic demand more than offset a 2.0% increase in export demand. ’17-’18 YTD disappearance has rebounded by 4.8% throughout the first seven months of the production season.
Apr ’18 disappearance of U.S. WPC outpaced total production and import volumes, resulting in stocks declining for the third consecutive month. U.S. WPC stocks had reached a record monthly high during Jan ’18, prior to declining throughout the past three months.
NFDM/SMP – Disappearance Increases to a Record Seasonal High, Finishes up 18.4% YOY
Apr ’18 U.S. nonfat dry milk (NFDM) and skim milk powder (SMP) commercial disappearance increased 18.4% YOY, finishing at the highest seasonal figure on record for the month of April. NFDM/SMP commercial disappearance has finished higher over four of the past five months through Apr ’18. Domestic NFDM/SMP demand declined 8.7% YOY throughout the month, however the decline was more than offset by a 36.2% YOY increase in export demand. ’16-’17 annual U.S. NFDM/SMP disappearance declined 0.3% YOY to a three year low as a 14.3% decline in domestic demand more than offset a 11.8% increase in export volumes. ’17-’18 YTD disappearance has rebounded by 8.3% throughout the first seven months of the production season.
Apr ’18 disappearance of U.S. NFDM/SMP outpaced total production and import volumes, resulting in stocks declining for the fourth consecutive month. U.S. NFDM/SMP stocks finished at a 12 month low, overall, but remained at a record seasonal high for the month of April.
Fluid Milk – Total Milk Sales Increase 0.4% YOY, Remain at the Second Lowest April Seasonal Figure
Apr ’18 U.S. fluid milk sales finished slightly higher on a YOY basis for the first time in the past 11 months, finishing up 0.4%. Despite finishing higher on a YOY basis, Apr ’18 fluid milk sales remained at the second lowest seasonal figure on record for the month of April. Sales of whole milk increased on a YOY basis for the 11th time in the past 12 months, finishing up 2.7% YOY, however fat-free milk sales remained weak, declining by 7.4%. ’16-’17 annual U.S. total fluid milk sales declined to a record low for the eighth consecutive year, finished down 1.7%, while ’17-’18 YTD sales remain down an additional 1.6% throughout the first seven months of the production season. Annual whole milk sales increased 3.1% throughout the ’16-’17 production season however annual fat-free milk sales declined 11.8%.
Fat consumed within U.S. fluid milk increased on a YOY basis for the third time in the past four months during Apr ’18 as total consumption finished up 1.5%. ’16-’17 annual total fat consumed within U.S. fluid milk increased 0.2% YOY, finishing at a four year high, while ’17-’18 YTD fat consumption within U.S. fluid milk is up an additional 0.2% throughout the first seven months of the production season.
Overall, domestic commercial disappearance increased most significantly on a YOY basis for cheese, while WPC domestic commercial disappearance finished most significantly lower YOY. International commercial disappearance finished higher across all products on a YOY basis throughout the month, led by NFDM/SMP export volumes.