U.S. Dairy Commercial Disappearance Update – May ’18
Executive Summary
U.S. dairy commercial disappearance figures provided by USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Mar ’18. Highlights from the updated report include:
Butter – Disappearance Increases to a Record Seasonal High, Finishes up 2.0% YOY
Mar ’18 U.S. butter commercial disappearance increased on a YOY basis for the fourth consecutive month, finishing up 2.0% to a record seasonal high for the month of March. Mar ’18 domestic butter demand increased 0.4% YOY throughout the month while export volumes finished 102.5% higher. ’16-’17 annual U.S. butter disappearance finished 3.5% higher YOY, reaching a three year high, as domestic butter disappearance increased 2.3%, reaching the highest figure on record. ’17-’18 YTD disappearance has increased an additional 3.0% throughout the first half of the production season.
Mar ’18 U.S. butter combined production and import figures outpaced total disappearance figures, resulting in stocks increasing from the previous month, finishing at a 25 year seasonal high for the month of March. The monthly increase in butter stocks was the fourth experienced in a row. U.S. butter stocks typically reach seasonal lows throughout the months of November and December, prior to increasing seasonally throughout the first half of the calendar year.
Cheese – Disappearance Increases to a Record Seasonal High, Finishes up 4.6% YOY
Mar ’18 U.S. cheese commercial disappearance increased 4.6% YOY, finishing at the highest seasonal figure on record. Commercial disappearance of cheese has finished higher over eight consecutive months through March. American cheese disappearance increased 6.6% YOY while other-than-American cheese disappearance finished 3.3% higher throughout the month. Total domestic cheese demand increased 4.3% YOY throughout the month while export volumes finished 8.7% higher. Cheese export figures have finished higher on a YOY basis over 17 of the past 18 months through Mar ’18. ’16-’17 annual U.S. cheese disappearance increased 2.6% to a record annual high as domestic demand increased 1.6% to a record high while export demand finished up 20.5%, reaching a three year high. ’17-’18 YTD disappearance is up an additional 3.0% throughout the first half of the production season.
Mar ’18 U.S. cheese combined production and import figures outpaced total disappearance figures, resulting in stocks increasing from the previous month, finishing at a record seasonal high for the month of March. U.S. cheese stocks typically reach seasonal lows throughout the months of October and November, prior to increasing seasonally throughout the first half of the calendar year.
Dry Whey – Disappearance Remains Strong, Finishes up 26.5% YOY to a 18 Year Seasonal High
Mar ’18 U.S. dry whey commercial disappearance remained higher on a YOY basis for the ninth consecutive month, finishing up 26.5% to a 18 year seasonal high. Domestic dry whey demand increased 27.1% YOY throughout the month while export demand finished 26.0% higher. The YOY increase in dry whey export volumes was the 19th experienced throughout the past 21 months. ’16-’17 annual U.S. dry whey disappearance declined 1.9% YOY from the four year high experienced during the previous year as a 16.9% decline in domestic demand more than offset a 22.2% increase in export demand. ’17-’18 YTD disappearance has rebounded by 20.3% throughout the first half of the production season.
Mar ’18 disappearance of U.S. dry whey outpaced total production and import volumes, resulting in stocks declining for the fourth consecutive month and finishing at a 13 month low, overall. U.S. dry whey stocks finished at a three year seasonal low for the month of March.
WPC – Disappearance Increases to a Record Seasonal High, Finishes up 12.7% YOY
Mar ’18 U.S. whey protein concentrate (WPC) commercial disappearance increased 12.7% YOY, finishing at the highest seasonal figure on record. Domestic WPC demand declined 28.6% YOY throughout the month however the decline in domestic demand was more than offset by a 47.2% YOY increase in export demand. ’16-’17 annual U.S. WPC disappearance declined 5.3% YOY from the record high levels experienced throughout the previous production season as a 13.8% decline in domestic demand more than offset a 2.0% increase in export demand. ’17-’18 YTD disappearance has rebounded by 4.0% throughout the first half of the production season.
Mar ’18 disappearance of U.S. WPC outpaced total production and import volumes, resulting in stocks declining for the second consecutive month. U.S. WPC stocks had reached a record monthly high during Jan ’18, prior to declining throughout the past two months.
NFDM/SMP – Disappearance Declines on Weak Domestic Demand, Finishes Down 3.7% YOY
Mar ’18 U.S. nonfat dry milk (NFDM) and skim milk powder (SMP) commercial disappearance declined 3.7% YOY from the record seasonal high experienced throughout the previous year but remained at the second highest seasonal figure on record for the month of March. The YOY decline in NFDM/SMP commercial disappearance was the first experienced throughout the past four months. Domestic NFDM/SMP demand declined 39.0% YOY throughout the month, more than offsetting a 37.2% YOY increase in export demand. ’16-’17 annual U.S. NFDM/SMP disappearance declined 0.5% YOY to a three year low as a 14.9% decline in domestic demand more than offset a 11.8% increase in export volumes experienced throughout the production season. ’17-’18 YTD disappearance has rebounded by 6.6% throughout the first half of the production season, despite the most recent YOY decline.
Mar ’18 disappearance of U.S. NFDM/SMP outpaced total production and import volumes, resulting in stocks declining for the third consecutive month. U.S. NFDM/SMP stocks finished at an eight month low, overall, but remained at a record seasonal high for the month of March.
Fluid Milk – Total Milk Sales Decline 3.0% YOY on Continued Weak Fat-Free Sales
Mar ’18 U.S. fluid milk sales of 4.10 billion pounds remained lower on a YOY basis for the tenth consecutive month, finishing down 3.0%. Sales of whole milk increased on a YOY basis for the tenth time in the past 11 months, finishing up 2.5% YOY, however fat-free milk sales remained weak, declining by 10.5%. ’16-’17 annual U.S. total fluid milk sales declined to a record low for the eighth consecutive year, finished down 1.7%, while ’17-’18 YTD sales are down an additional 1.9% throughout the first half of the production season. Annual whole milk sales increased 3.1% throughout the ’16-’17 production season however annual fat-free milk sales declined 11.8%.
Fat consumed within U.S. fluid milk declined on a YOY basis for the first time in the past three months during Mar ’18 as total consumption finished down 0.7%. ’16-’17 annual total fat consumed within U.S. fluid milk increased 0.2% YOY, finishing at a four year high. ’17-’18 YTD fat consumption within U.S. fluid milk is flat on a YOY basis throughout the first half of the production season.
Overall, domestic commercial disappearance increased most significantly on a YOY basis for cheese, while NFDM/SMP domestic commercial disappearance finished most significantly lower YOY. International commercial disappearance finished higher across all products on a YOY basis throughout the month, led by NFDM/SMP export volumes.
- Mar ’18 U.S. commercial disappearance for milk used in all products increased to a record seasonal high on both a milk-fat and skim-solids basis, finishing up 1.0% YOY and 1.9% YOY, respectively. Commercial disappearance on a skim-solids basis finished at a new record high monthly figure.
- Mar ’18 U.S. butter, cheese and whey protein concentrate commercial disappearance all increased to new record seasonal highs throughout the month. Dry whey commercial disappearance increased to a 18 year seasonal high for the month of March and, although nonfat dry milk/skim milk powder commercial disappearance declined from the record seasonal high experienced throughout the previous year, Mar ’18 disappearance remained at the second highest seasonal figure on record.
- U.S. fluid milk sales finished lower on a YOY basis for the tenth consecutive month during Mar ’18, declining by 3.0%. Sales of fat-free milk remained particularly weak, declining by 10.5% YOY throughout the month.
Butter – Disappearance Increases to a Record Seasonal High, Finishes up 2.0% YOY
Mar ’18 U.S. butter commercial disappearance increased on a YOY basis for the fourth consecutive month, finishing up 2.0% to a record seasonal high for the month of March. Mar ’18 domestic butter demand increased 0.4% YOY throughout the month while export volumes finished 102.5% higher. ’16-’17 annual U.S. butter disappearance finished 3.5% higher YOY, reaching a three year high, as domestic butter disappearance increased 2.3%, reaching the highest figure on record. ’17-’18 YTD disappearance has increased an additional 3.0% throughout the first half of the production season.
Mar ’18 U.S. butter combined production and import figures outpaced total disappearance figures, resulting in stocks increasing from the previous month, finishing at a 25 year seasonal high for the month of March. The monthly increase in butter stocks was the fourth experienced in a row. U.S. butter stocks typically reach seasonal lows throughout the months of November and December, prior to increasing seasonally throughout the first half of the calendar year.
Cheese – Disappearance Increases to a Record Seasonal High, Finishes up 4.6% YOY
Mar ’18 U.S. cheese commercial disappearance increased 4.6% YOY, finishing at the highest seasonal figure on record. Commercial disappearance of cheese has finished higher over eight consecutive months through March. American cheese disappearance increased 6.6% YOY while other-than-American cheese disappearance finished 3.3% higher throughout the month. Total domestic cheese demand increased 4.3% YOY throughout the month while export volumes finished 8.7% higher. Cheese export figures have finished higher on a YOY basis over 17 of the past 18 months through Mar ’18. ’16-’17 annual U.S. cheese disappearance increased 2.6% to a record annual high as domestic demand increased 1.6% to a record high while export demand finished up 20.5%, reaching a three year high. ’17-’18 YTD disappearance is up an additional 3.0% throughout the first half of the production season.
Mar ’18 U.S. cheese combined production and import figures outpaced total disappearance figures, resulting in stocks increasing from the previous month, finishing at a record seasonal high for the month of March. U.S. cheese stocks typically reach seasonal lows throughout the months of October and November, prior to increasing seasonally throughout the first half of the calendar year.
Dry Whey – Disappearance Remains Strong, Finishes up 26.5% YOY to a 18 Year Seasonal High
Mar ’18 U.S. dry whey commercial disappearance remained higher on a YOY basis for the ninth consecutive month, finishing up 26.5% to a 18 year seasonal high. Domestic dry whey demand increased 27.1% YOY throughout the month while export demand finished 26.0% higher. The YOY increase in dry whey export volumes was the 19th experienced throughout the past 21 months. ’16-’17 annual U.S. dry whey disappearance declined 1.9% YOY from the four year high experienced during the previous year as a 16.9% decline in domestic demand more than offset a 22.2% increase in export demand. ’17-’18 YTD disappearance has rebounded by 20.3% throughout the first half of the production season.
Mar ’18 disappearance of U.S. dry whey outpaced total production and import volumes, resulting in stocks declining for the fourth consecutive month and finishing at a 13 month low, overall. U.S. dry whey stocks finished at a three year seasonal low for the month of March.
WPC – Disappearance Increases to a Record Seasonal High, Finishes up 12.7% YOY
Mar ’18 U.S. whey protein concentrate (WPC) commercial disappearance increased 12.7% YOY, finishing at the highest seasonal figure on record. Domestic WPC demand declined 28.6% YOY throughout the month however the decline in domestic demand was more than offset by a 47.2% YOY increase in export demand. ’16-’17 annual U.S. WPC disappearance declined 5.3% YOY from the record high levels experienced throughout the previous production season as a 13.8% decline in domestic demand more than offset a 2.0% increase in export demand. ’17-’18 YTD disappearance has rebounded by 4.0% throughout the first half of the production season.
Mar ’18 disappearance of U.S. WPC outpaced total production and import volumes, resulting in stocks declining for the second consecutive month. U.S. WPC stocks had reached a record monthly high during Jan ’18, prior to declining throughout the past two months.
NFDM/SMP – Disappearance Declines on Weak Domestic Demand, Finishes Down 3.7% YOY
Mar ’18 U.S. nonfat dry milk (NFDM) and skim milk powder (SMP) commercial disappearance declined 3.7% YOY from the record seasonal high experienced throughout the previous year but remained at the second highest seasonal figure on record for the month of March. The YOY decline in NFDM/SMP commercial disappearance was the first experienced throughout the past four months. Domestic NFDM/SMP demand declined 39.0% YOY throughout the month, more than offsetting a 37.2% YOY increase in export demand. ’16-’17 annual U.S. NFDM/SMP disappearance declined 0.5% YOY to a three year low as a 14.9% decline in domestic demand more than offset a 11.8% increase in export volumes experienced throughout the production season. ’17-’18 YTD disappearance has rebounded by 6.6% throughout the first half of the production season, despite the most recent YOY decline.
Mar ’18 disappearance of U.S. NFDM/SMP outpaced total production and import volumes, resulting in stocks declining for the third consecutive month. U.S. NFDM/SMP stocks finished at an eight month low, overall, but remained at a record seasonal high for the month of March.
Fluid Milk – Total Milk Sales Decline 3.0% YOY on Continued Weak Fat-Free Sales
Mar ’18 U.S. fluid milk sales of 4.10 billion pounds remained lower on a YOY basis for the tenth consecutive month, finishing down 3.0%. Sales of whole milk increased on a YOY basis for the tenth time in the past 11 months, finishing up 2.5% YOY, however fat-free milk sales remained weak, declining by 10.5%. ’16-’17 annual U.S. total fluid milk sales declined to a record low for the eighth consecutive year, finished down 1.7%, while ’17-’18 YTD sales are down an additional 1.9% throughout the first half of the production season. Annual whole milk sales increased 3.1% throughout the ’16-’17 production season however annual fat-free milk sales declined 11.8%.
Fat consumed within U.S. fluid milk declined on a YOY basis for the first time in the past three months during Mar ’18 as total consumption finished down 0.7%. ’16-’17 annual total fat consumed within U.S. fluid milk increased 0.2% YOY, finishing at a four year high. ’17-’18 YTD fat consumption within U.S. fluid milk is flat on a YOY basis throughout the first half of the production season.
Overall, domestic commercial disappearance increased most significantly on a YOY basis for cheese, while NFDM/SMP domestic commercial disappearance finished most significantly lower YOY. International commercial disappearance finished higher across all products on a YOY basis throughout the month, led by NFDM/SMP export volumes.