U.S. Dairy Commercial Disappearance Update – Apr ’18
Executive Summary
U.S. dairy commercial disappearance figures provided by USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Feb ’18. Highlights from the updated report include:
Butter – Disappearance Increases YOY on Strong Domestic and Export Demand, Finishes up 5.4%
Feb ’18 U.S. butter commercial disappearance increased on a YOY basis for the second consecutive month, finishing up 5.4%. Feb ’18 domestic butter demand increased 4.3% YOY throughout the month while export volumes finished 52.1% higher. ’16-’17 annual U.S. butter disappearance finished 3.5% higher YOY, reaching a three year high, as domestic butter disappearance increased 2.3%, reaching the highest figure on record. ’17-’18 YTD disappearance has increased an additional 0.9% throughout the five months of the production season.
Feb ’18 U.S. butter combined production and import figures outpaced total disappearance figures, resulting in stocks increasing from the previous month, finishing at a 25 year seasonal high for the month of February. The monthly increase in butter stocks was the third experienced in a row. U.S. butter stocks typically reach seasonal lows throughout the months of November and December, prior to increasing seasonally throughout the first half of the calendar year.
Cheese – Disappearance Increases to a Record Seasonal High, Finishes up 4.2%
Feb ’18 U.S. cheese commercial disappearance increased 4.2% YOY, finishing at the highest seasonal figure on record. Commercial disappearance of cheese has finished higher over six of the past seven months through February. American cheese disappearance increased 6.7% YOY while other-than-American cheese disappearance finished 2.7% higher throughout the month. Total domestic cheese demand increased 4.0% YOY throughout the month while export volumes finished 6.8% higher. Cheese export figures have finished higher on a YOY basis over 16 of the past 17 months through Feb ’18. ’16-’17 annual U.S. cheese disappearance increased 2.6% to a record annual high as domestic demand increased 1.6% to a record high while export demand finished up 20.5%, reaching a three year high. ’17-’18 YTD disappearance is up an additional 2.9% throughout the five months of the production season.
Feb ’18 U.S. cheese combined production and import figures outpaced total disappearance figures, resulting in stocks increasing from the previous month, finishing at a record seasonal high for the month of February. U.S. cheese stocks typically reach seasonal lows throughout the months of October and November, prior to increasing seasonally throughout the first half of the calendar year.
Dry Whey – Disappearance Remains Strong, Finishes up 21.8% YOY to a 12 Year Seasonal High
Feb ’18 U.S. dry whey commercial disappearance remained higher on a YOY basis for the eighth consecutive month, finishing up 21.8% to a 12 year seasonal high. Domestic dry whey demand increased 16.3% YOY throughout the month while export demand finished 28.7% higher. The YOY increase in dry whey export volumes was the 18th experienced throughout the past 20 months. ’16-’17 annual U.S. dry whey disappearance declined 1.9% YOY from the four year high experienced during the previous year as a 16.9% decline in domestic demand more than offset a 22.2% increase in export demand. ’17-’18 YTD disappearance has rebounded by 18.1% throughout the five months of the production season.
Feb ’18 disappearance of U.S. dry whey outpaced total production and import volumes, resulting in stocks declining for the third consecutive month. U.S. dry whey stocks remained at a record high seasonal figure for the month of February, despite declining from the previous month.
WPC – Disappearance Increases to a Record Seasonal High, Finishes up 16.3%
Feb ’18 U.S. whey protein concentrate (WPC) commercial disappearance increased 16.3% YOY, finishing at the highest seasonal figure on record. Domestic WPC demand increased 40.0% YOY throughout the month while export demand finished 0.9% higher. ’16-’17 annual U.S. WPC disappearance declined 5.3% YOY from the record high levels experienced throughout the previous production season as a 13.8% decline in domestic demand more than offset a 2.0% increase in export demand. ’17-’18 YTD disappearance has rebounded by 3.1% throughout the five months of the production season.
Feb ’18 disappearance of U.S. WPC outpaced total production and import volumes, resulting in stocks declining for the first time in the past 12 months. U.S. WPC stocks had reached a record monthly high during Jan ’18, prior to declining throughout February.
NFDM/SMP – Disappearance Increases YOY on Strong Export Demand, Finishes up 22.0%
Feb ’18 U.S. nonfat dry milk (NFDM) and skim milk powder (SMP) commercial disappearance increased 22.0% YOY, finishing higher for the fourth time in the past five months. Domestic NFDM/SMP demand increased 2.3% YOY throughout the month while export demand finished 27.4% higher. ’16-’17 annual U.S. NFDM/SMP disappearance declined 0.5% YOY to a three year low as a 14.9% decline in domestic demand more than offset a 11.8% increase in export volumes experienced throughout the production season. ’17-’18 YTD disappearance has rebounded by 6.4% throughout the five months of the production season.
Feb ’18 U.S. NFDM/SMP combined production and import figures outpaced total disappearance figures, resulting in stocks increasing for the third time in the past four months. U.S. NFDM/SMP stocks increased to a new monthly record high figure throughout the month.
Fluid Milk – Total Milk Sales Decline 1.6% YOY on Continued Weak Fat-Free Sales
Feb ’18 U.S. fluid milk sales of 3.73 billion pounds remained lower on a YOY basis for the ninth consecutive month, finishing down 1.6%. Sales of whole milk increased on a YOY basis for the ninth time in the past ten months, finishing up 2.2% YOY, however fat-free milk sales remained weak, declining by 10.1%. ’16-’17 annual U.S. total fluid milk sales declined to a record low for the eighth consecutive year, finished down 1.7%, while ’17-’18 YTD sales are down an additional 1.7% throughout the first five months of the production season. Annual whole milk sales increased 3.1% throughout the ’16-’17 production season however annual fat-free milk sales declined 11.8%.
Fat consumed within U.S. fluid milk remained higher on a YOY basis for the fourth time in the past five months during Feb ’18 as total consumption finished up 0.1%. ’16-’17 annual total fat consumed within U.S. fluid milk increased 0.2% YOY, finishing at a four year high. ’17-’18 YTD fat consumption within U.S. fluid milk is up an additional 0.1% throughout the first five months of the production season.
Overall, domestic and international commercial disappearance each increased on a YOY basis across all products. Domestic cheese disappearance finished most significantly higher on an absolute basis while export volumes strengthened most significantly on an absolute basis for NFDM/SMP.
- Feb ’18 U.S. commercial disappearance for milk used in all products increased to a record seasonal high on both a milk-fat and skim-solids basis, finishing up 1.5% YOY and 4.2% YOY, respectively.
- Feb ’18 U.S. butter, cheese, dry whey, whey protein concentrate and nonfat dry milk/skim milk powder commercial disappearance all finished higher on a YOY basis throughout the month. Cheese and whey protein concentrate disappearance each increased to record seasonal highs throughout the month.
- U.S. fluid milk sales finished lower on a YOY basis for the ninth consecutive month during Feb ’18, declining by 1.6%. Sales of fat-free milk remained particularly weak, declining by 10.1% YOY throughout the month.
Butter – Disappearance Increases YOY on Strong Domestic and Export Demand, Finishes up 5.4%
Feb ’18 U.S. butter commercial disappearance increased on a YOY basis for the second consecutive month, finishing up 5.4%. Feb ’18 domestic butter demand increased 4.3% YOY throughout the month while export volumes finished 52.1% higher. ’16-’17 annual U.S. butter disappearance finished 3.5% higher YOY, reaching a three year high, as domestic butter disappearance increased 2.3%, reaching the highest figure on record. ’17-’18 YTD disappearance has increased an additional 0.9% throughout the five months of the production season.
Feb ’18 U.S. butter combined production and import figures outpaced total disappearance figures, resulting in stocks increasing from the previous month, finishing at a 25 year seasonal high for the month of February. The monthly increase in butter stocks was the third experienced in a row. U.S. butter stocks typically reach seasonal lows throughout the months of November and December, prior to increasing seasonally throughout the first half of the calendar year.
Cheese – Disappearance Increases to a Record Seasonal High, Finishes up 4.2%
Feb ’18 U.S. cheese commercial disappearance increased 4.2% YOY, finishing at the highest seasonal figure on record. Commercial disappearance of cheese has finished higher over six of the past seven months through February. American cheese disappearance increased 6.7% YOY while other-than-American cheese disappearance finished 2.7% higher throughout the month. Total domestic cheese demand increased 4.0% YOY throughout the month while export volumes finished 6.8% higher. Cheese export figures have finished higher on a YOY basis over 16 of the past 17 months through Feb ’18. ’16-’17 annual U.S. cheese disappearance increased 2.6% to a record annual high as domestic demand increased 1.6% to a record high while export demand finished up 20.5%, reaching a three year high. ’17-’18 YTD disappearance is up an additional 2.9% throughout the five months of the production season.
Feb ’18 U.S. cheese combined production and import figures outpaced total disappearance figures, resulting in stocks increasing from the previous month, finishing at a record seasonal high for the month of February. U.S. cheese stocks typically reach seasonal lows throughout the months of October and November, prior to increasing seasonally throughout the first half of the calendar year.
Dry Whey – Disappearance Remains Strong, Finishes up 21.8% YOY to a 12 Year Seasonal High
Feb ’18 U.S. dry whey commercial disappearance remained higher on a YOY basis for the eighth consecutive month, finishing up 21.8% to a 12 year seasonal high. Domestic dry whey demand increased 16.3% YOY throughout the month while export demand finished 28.7% higher. The YOY increase in dry whey export volumes was the 18th experienced throughout the past 20 months. ’16-’17 annual U.S. dry whey disappearance declined 1.9% YOY from the four year high experienced during the previous year as a 16.9% decline in domestic demand more than offset a 22.2% increase in export demand. ’17-’18 YTD disappearance has rebounded by 18.1% throughout the five months of the production season.
Feb ’18 disappearance of U.S. dry whey outpaced total production and import volumes, resulting in stocks declining for the third consecutive month. U.S. dry whey stocks remained at a record high seasonal figure for the month of February, despite declining from the previous month.
WPC – Disappearance Increases to a Record Seasonal High, Finishes up 16.3%
Feb ’18 U.S. whey protein concentrate (WPC) commercial disappearance increased 16.3% YOY, finishing at the highest seasonal figure on record. Domestic WPC demand increased 40.0% YOY throughout the month while export demand finished 0.9% higher. ’16-’17 annual U.S. WPC disappearance declined 5.3% YOY from the record high levels experienced throughout the previous production season as a 13.8% decline in domestic demand more than offset a 2.0% increase in export demand. ’17-’18 YTD disappearance has rebounded by 3.1% throughout the five months of the production season.
Feb ’18 disappearance of U.S. WPC outpaced total production and import volumes, resulting in stocks declining for the first time in the past 12 months. U.S. WPC stocks had reached a record monthly high during Jan ’18, prior to declining throughout February.
NFDM/SMP – Disappearance Increases YOY on Strong Export Demand, Finishes up 22.0%
Feb ’18 U.S. nonfat dry milk (NFDM) and skim milk powder (SMP) commercial disappearance increased 22.0% YOY, finishing higher for the fourth time in the past five months. Domestic NFDM/SMP demand increased 2.3% YOY throughout the month while export demand finished 27.4% higher. ’16-’17 annual U.S. NFDM/SMP disappearance declined 0.5% YOY to a three year low as a 14.9% decline in domestic demand more than offset a 11.8% increase in export volumes experienced throughout the production season. ’17-’18 YTD disappearance has rebounded by 6.4% throughout the five months of the production season.
Feb ’18 U.S. NFDM/SMP combined production and import figures outpaced total disappearance figures, resulting in stocks increasing for the third time in the past four months. U.S. NFDM/SMP stocks increased to a new monthly record high figure throughout the month.
Fluid Milk – Total Milk Sales Decline 1.6% YOY on Continued Weak Fat-Free Sales
Feb ’18 U.S. fluid milk sales of 3.73 billion pounds remained lower on a YOY basis for the ninth consecutive month, finishing down 1.6%. Sales of whole milk increased on a YOY basis for the ninth time in the past ten months, finishing up 2.2% YOY, however fat-free milk sales remained weak, declining by 10.1%. ’16-’17 annual U.S. total fluid milk sales declined to a record low for the eighth consecutive year, finished down 1.7%, while ’17-’18 YTD sales are down an additional 1.7% throughout the first five months of the production season. Annual whole milk sales increased 3.1% throughout the ’16-’17 production season however annual fat-free milk sales declined 11.8%.
Fat consumed within U.S. fluid milk remained higher on a YOY basis for the fourth time in the past five months during Feb ’18 as total consumption finished up 0.1%. ’16-’17 annual total fat consumed within U.S. fluid milk increased 0.2% YOY, finishing at a four year high. ’17-’18 YTD fat consumption within U.S. fluid milk is up an additional 0.1% throughout the first five months of the production season.
Overall, domestic and international commercial disappearance each increased on a YOY basis across all products. Domestic cheese disappearance finished most significantly higher on an absolute basis while export volumes strengthened most significantly on an absolute basis for NFDM/SMP.